The No. 4 seed Illinois Fighting Illini (22-9) and the No. 13 seed Chattanooga Mocs (27-7) will meet on Friday at 6:50 PM in the first round of the NCAA Tournament. Keep reading to find betting insights and statistics to help place a wager on the Fighting Illini’s (to win on the moneyline) matchup against the Mocs ( ).
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Illinois vs Chattanooga Betting Odds
Illinois vs Chattanooga Betting Analysis
Given Illinois’ low frequency in attacking the rim, ranking outside the top 300 in that metric, a great majority of their offensive production needs to come from getting high-quality shots from beyond the arc. Given the Illini’s Rim & 3 Rate of 81%, which further measures the percentage of possessions that result in a 3-pointer or a shot at the rim, it is evident that in order to adequately produce on the offensive end, Illinois must continue to shoot a high percentage from three-point range. The Fighting Illini rank in the top 30 in the country in shot efficiency from beyond the three-point line.
For Chattanooga, it must maintain efficiency when in transition, a metric to which the No. 13-seeded Mocs ranked top 25 in the country this season. Given that Chattanooga has a top 100 Rim & 3 Rate in the country at 84%, they must continue to find open looks from beyond the three-point line and when attacking the basket.
Although the fourth-seeded Illini have had a significant efficient shot-making ability throughout this season, the market may still be drastically overrating Illinois to the extent of which the No. 13-seeded Mocs have significant betting value to cover as a 7.5-point underdog, and potentially win the game outright to move onto the second round.
Illinois Offense Vs. Chattanooga Defense
|Illinois Offense||Stats (Rank)||Chattanooga Defense|
|75.8 (52)||Points/Gm||64.7 (42)|
|67.0 (236)||Possessions/Game||66.1 (54)|
|45.3 (104)||Field Goal %||42.3 (127)|
|36.7 (45)||3PT %||30.1 (27)|
|53.1 (61)||Effective FG %||48.4 (124)|
|56.4 (66)||True Shooting %||51.1 (106)|
Chattanooga Offense Vs. Illinois Defense
|Chattanooga Offense||Stats (Rank)||Illinois Defense|
|74.8 (75)||Points/Gm||67.6 (135)|
|65.3 (303)||Possessions/Game||68.4 (160)|
|46.9 (40)||Field Goal %||41.5 (79)|
|34.6 (128)||3PT %||32.1 (100)|
|53.7 (44)||Effective FG %||46.2 (32)|
|57.1 (45)||True Shooting %||50.1 (60)|
Illinois Betting Insights
- Illinois has covered 13 times in 31 chances against the spread this season.
- The Fighting Illini are 6-8 ATS this season when playing as at least 7-point favorites.
- So far this season, 17 out of Illinois’ 31 games have hit the over.
- Illinois’ 31 games this season have gone over this contest’s total of 135.5 points 20 times.
- The average point total in Fighting Illini contests this year is 141.6, 6.1 more than this matchup’s over/under.
Chattanooga Betting Insights
- Chattanooga has covered 17 times in 33 games with a spread this season.
- The Mocs have been an underdog by 7 points or more once this season, and covered the spread.
- Chattanooga and its opponents have combined to go over the point total 18 out of 33 times this year.
- Chattanooga has played 21 games this season that have gone over 135.5 combined points scored.
- The Mocs have a 138.8-point average over/under in their contests this season, 3.3 more points than this game’s point total.
Illinois Key Players
- Kofi Cockburn leads the Fighting Illini in points and rebounds. He puts up 21.1 points per game while also adding 10.6 rebounds.
- Trent Frazier paces the squad with 4.1 assists per game.
- Alfonso Plummer knocks down 3.0 treys per game to lead the Fighting Illini.
- Illinois’ blocks leader is Cockburn, who collects 0.9 per game. Frazier leads the team averaging 1.3 steals a game.
Chattanooga Key Players
- The Mocs go-to guy, Malachi Smith, leads the team in both scoring (20.1 points per game) and assists (3.1 assists per game).
- Silvio De Sousa’s 7.0 rebounds per game paces Chattanooga’s rebounding effort. He also adds 11.1 points per game.
- David Jean-Baptiste is tops from three-point range for the Mocs, knocking down 2.8 treys per game.
- Nobody on Chattanooga grabs more steals than Smith (1.7 per game) or blocks more shots than De Sousa (1.1 per game).
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