The No. 4 seed Illinois Fighting Illini (22-9) and the No. 13 seed Chattanooga Mocs (27-7) will meet on Friday at 6:50 PM in the first round of the NCAA Tournament. Keep reading to find betting insights and statistics to help place a wager on the Fighting Illini’s ( to win on the moneyline) matchup against the Mocs ().
BetMGM March Madness Special Offer! Bet $10 on a moneyline and win $200 if either team makes a 3-pointer!
Illinois vs Chattanooga Betting Odds
Illinois vs Chattanooga Betting Analysis
Given Illinois’ low frequency in attacking the rim, ranking outside the top 300 in that metric, a great majority of their offensive production needs to come from getting high-quality shots from beyond the arc. Given the Illini’s Rim & 3 Rate of 81%, which further measures the percentage of possessions that result in a 3-pointer or a shot at the rim, it is evident that in order to adequately produce on the offensive end, Illinois must continue to shoot a high percentage from three-point range. The Fighting Illini rank in the top 30 in the country in shot efficiency from beyond the three-point line.
For Chattanooga, it must maintain efficiency when in transition, a metric to which the No. 13-seeded Mocs ranked top 25 in the country this season. Given that Chattanooga has a top 100 Rim & 3 Rate in the country at 84%, they must continue to find open looks from beyond the three-point line and when attacking the basket.
Although the fourth-seeded Illini have had a significant efficient shot-making ability throughout this season, the market may still be drastically overrating Illinois to the extent of which the No. 13-seeded Mocs have significant betting value to cover as a 7.5-point underdog, and potentially win the game outright to move onto the second round.
Illinois Offense Vs. Chattanooga Defense
| Illinois Offense | Stats (Rank) | Chattanooga Defense |
|---|---|---|
| 75.8 (52) | Points/Gm | 64.7 (42) |
| 67.0 (236) | Possessions/Game | 66.1 (54) |
| 45.3 (104) | Field Goal % | 42.3 (127) |
| 36.7 (45) | 3PT % | 30.1 (27) |
| 53.1 (61) | Effective FG % | 48.4 (124) |
| 56.4 (66) | True Shooting % | 51.1 (106) |
Chattanooga Offense Vs. Illinois Defense
| Chattanooga Offense | Stats (Rank) | Illinois Defense |
|---|---|---|
| 74.8 (75) | Points/Gm | 67.6 (135) |
| 65.3 (303) | Possessions/Game | 68.4 (160) |
| 46.9 (40) | Field Goal % | 41.5 (79) |
| 34.6 (128) | 3PT % | 32.1 (100) |
| 53.7 (44) | Effective FG % | 46.2 (32) |
| 57.1 (45) | True Shooting % | 50.1 (60) |
Illinois Betting Insights
- Illinois has covered 13 times in 31 chances against the spread this season.
- The Fighting Illini are 6-8 ATS this season when playing as at least 7-point favorites.
- So far this season, 17 out of Illinois’ 31 games have hit the over.
- Illinois’ 31 games this season have gone over this contest’s total of 135.5 points 20 times.
- The average point total in Fighting Illini contests this year is 141.6, 6.1 more than this matchup’s over/under.
Chattanooga Betting Insights
- Chattanooga has covered 17 times in 33 games with a spread this season.
- The Mocs have been an underdog by 7 points or more once this season, and covered the spread.
- Chattanooga and its opponents have combined to go over the point total 18 out of 33 times this year.
- Chattanooga has played 21 games this season that have gone over 135.5 combined points scored.
- The Mocs have a 138.8-point average over/under in their contests this season, 3.3 more points than this game’s point total.
Illinois Key Players
- Kofi Cockburn leads the Fighting Illini in points and rebounds. He puts up 21.1 points per game while also adding 10.6 rebounds.
- Trent Frazier paces the squad with 4.1 assists per game.
- Alfonso Plummer knocks down 3.0 treys per game to lead the Fighting Illini.
- Illinois’ blocks leader is Cockburn, who collects 0.9 per game. Frazier leads the team averaging 1.3 steals a game.
Chattanooga Key Players
- The Mocs go-to guy, Malachi Smith, leads the team in both scoring (20.1 points per game) and assists (3.1 assists per game).
- Silvio De Sousa’s 7.0 rebounds per game paces Chattanooga’s rebounding effort. He also adds 11.1 points per game.
- David Jean-Baptiste is tops from three-point range for the Mocs, knocking down 2.8 treys per game.
- Nobody on Chattanooga grabs more steals than Smith (1.7 per game) or blocks more shots than De Sousa (1.1 per game).
March Madness bracket & live odds
