2024 Hungarian Grand Prix Odds

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Written By Evan Scrimshaw | Last Updated
f1 grand prix odds

After Lewis Hamilton secured Mercedes’ second straight win of the season, Formula 1 decamps to one of Mercedes’ happiest hunting grounds this week. Hungary has been one of Mercedes’ best tracks, with both Lewis and George Russell grabbing pole positions the last two years in uncompetitive cars. Now, with Mercedes potentially back at the front, 2024 Hungarian Grand Prix F1 odds tell a very interesting story.

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2024 Hungarian Grand Prix Odds

2024 Hungarian Grand Prix Odds Qualifying

Mercedes have been on pole position in Hungary four straight years. George Russell’s 2022 pole splits up three Lewis Hamilton poles, with 2022 and 2023 representing the only such positions for the Mercedes car. Despite a general lack of competitiveness, the Mercedes has performed well at Hungary for many years. The track’s limited overtaking opportunities, narrow design, and multitude of slow corners make it very well suited for Mercedes. 

The last time we saw a track with lots of slow corners was Montreal, where George also snagged pole. Unlike in Canada, however, this track lacks long straights to help Red Bull catch up. Plainly, this should be a Mercedes front row lockout. If they could lock out Silverstone, where they were not expecting to be truly competitive in the dry, they should ace this.

The McLaren’s one relative weakness is still slow corners, which means it shouldn’t be a serious challenger for pole. The fact that Lando Norris couldn’t reach pole at Silverstone is additionally concerning for McLaren backers. If he couldn’t find the pace at a fast track where they announced themselves in 2023, they’ll struggle in 2024. That struggle still should mean a second row for Norris, but a front-row start is likely off the cards.

Qualifying Props

Max Verstappen is the enigma here. He has one pole in Hungary in 2019. But the Red Bull doesn’t really go well around slow tracks or ones that require heavy use of the curbs, and his car is clearly no longer dominant. In theory he should be looking at a fourth-place finish at best, and fifth if Oscar Piastri does his job. Counting out Verstappen feels silly, but if we’re going with Hungary being Montreal without straights, he should be in the pack, not at the front of it.

Nico Hulkenberg made it into Q3 here in 2023 and is coming off two straight P6 finishes. Clearly the Haas has found some pace, and while the Haas’ straight line speed advantage won’t be as useful here, there’s no other car clearly suited for a great weekend.

2024 Hungarian Grand Prix Odds Race

Mercedes should win. I think they clearly have the fastest car, they should lock out the front row, and they should win fairly easily. Had the British GP been dry, and George not had his car break down, they were on for an easy 1-2. Mercedes have outkicked their coverage to earn two poles and an on-pace race win on difficult tracks. Now, they come to friendly confines, with the likely fastest car and the best driver lineup on the grid. Bet both Mercedes drivers to win, bet the Mercedes double podium, and then relax and enjoy.

Podium

The last podium spot really should be Lando Norris, though I said he should have won last time out. Norris has to put in a good performance after yet again failing to maximize a weekend. McLaren as a team have to take plenty of blame for the failure in Silverstone, sure. But Oscar Piastri knew when he wanted to pit back to dry tires and he knew he wanted the medium tire. Treating Norris like he couldn’t have possibly known is infantilizing. He’s had the fastest car since Miami and has more weekends off the podium (two) than wins (one). This weekend, the Merc is likelier faster, but that just means he’d better be best of the non-Mercs.

Verstappen should be in a fight with Norris and potentially Piastri, but it seems like there’s a clear top five and then a massive cliff to everyone else. The reasons for that cliff are twofold: Checo Perez remains terrible, but more importantly, Ferrari are utterly nowhere.

Ferrari

Ferrari are lost since Monaco, flailing between failed development and incompetent strategies. Twice in the last four races, they have pitted Charles Leclerc for wrong-weather tires. They have one podium since Monaco, and they only have that because Verstappen and Norris crashed each other off the podium in Austria. They are returning to the spec of the car they introduced in Imola, scrapping the supposedly vaunted Spain upgrade. They’re a mess.

I’d say this track doesn’t suit them well, but I have no idea what track would suit them right now. They’re slow, and getting slower. But most concerningly, they don’t seem to understand how to even prioritize their car properly. It used to be that even when the Ferrari had mediocre pace, Leclerc could put a car that had no business at the front in a great starting position. Now, they can’t even get Leclerc consistently out of Q2. Carlos Sainz and Leclerc feel they have sixth and seventh written all over them, making them worth picking on. If one of the Big 5 drivers botches qualifying, bet them against one or both of the Ferrari drivers in a race head-to-head.

Best Of The Rest

Silverstone was a weekend from hell for Alpine, but they should get back on the wagon this weekend. Esteban Ocon won here in 2021, while Pierre Gasly managed a fifth in one of the funniest races in recent memory. With the lack of pace from Aston Martin and Hungary not suiting the Haas car strengths, there could be a double points finish available for Alpine.

Williams being strong doesn’t seem to make a lot of sense around the Hungaroring, but Alex Albon did go 16th to 11th last year. Would probably require some carnage at the front, but points are possible for Albon, who scored in Silverstone and would have scored in Canada.

With the rumors that Perez could lose his seat at Red Bull at the summer break if he doesn’t improve quickly, this would be a good place for Daniel Ricciardo to shine. He did get his first race win here in 2014. That said, Danny Ric’s a fade despite the narrative reasons for optimism.

Photo by ASSOCIATED PRESS

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