Houston Texans vs. Pittsburgh Steelers: Best Picks & Player Props

Written By Blaise Bourgeois | Published at January 12, 2026

Dec 7, 2025; Kansas City, Missouri, USA; Houston Texans defensive end Will Anderson Jr. (51) and Houston Texans safety Jalen Pitre (5) celebrate after sacking Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes (15) during the first quarter at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Denny Medley-Imagn Images

What an NFL Wild Card weekend. We truly could not have written up a better script, as the first four games were all decided with touchdowns in the final three minutes of the game. Even the nightcap was a wide-open game with ten minutes left in the fourth quarter.

Tonight, we hope the Houston Texans and the Pittsburgh Steelers finish the weekend with a banger. The winner will face the second-seeded New England Patriots in the AFC Divisional round, while the Buffalo Bills will take on the Denver Broncos in the other half of the bracket.

Without further ado, here are our best bets for Sunday's fantastic contest. Make sure you browse all of our favorite sports betting apps and take advantage of all of the latest sportsbook promos.

Game Lines

Under 38.5 (-105)

🏈Odds via FanDuel📈

The last time the Pittsburgh Steelers faced a top-five defense, they were held to six points by the Cleveland Browns in a game where they could have clinched a playoff berth with a win. Instead, they left it late and had to pour their hearts and souls into scraping by the Baltimore Ravens.

Today, they face the best defense in all of football. They're not exactly stockpiled with offensive weapons, even though they'll have DK Metcalf back. They should struggle mightily to get anything going.

Our only question is how many points the Texans will put on the board? We have a 20-6 Texans win.

Houston Texans ML (-155)

🏈Odds via DraftKings📈

We can't even take the Texans at -3.5/-3 because we know the Texans aren't the most potent offense in the world, which could lead to a weird final score. We think Houston are much, much better than advertised. All five of their losses were one-score games, with four of those losses coming against playoff teams (Rams, Jaguars, Seahawks, Broncos), while the other was a one-point loss against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in the first half of the season, when they looked like a Super Bowl contender before the injuries.

Houston has been playing much better on the offensive side of the ball during the second half of the season, posting 38 or more points in two of their final four games.

Did we forget to mention that the Texans have won a league-high nine consecutive games? The last time they lost, it was a three-point walk-off defeat to the Denver Broncos after going into the fourth quarter up by eight points. They'll be eyeing a potential revenge game in the AFC Championship, and this is the first step.

Player Props

Aaron Rodgers Under 204.5 Passing Yards (-114)

🏈Odds via Caesars Sportsbook📈

The Texans have only allowed 183.5 passing yards a game this season, while Aaron Rodgers has only averaged 207.6 passing yards per game. He's averaged 42.3 pass attempts over the last three games, the three games he's thrown the most all season, and has averaged 242.7 passing yards.

There's no way he's throwing 40+ times again. We're smashing this under, expecting him to throw for around 165 yards.

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Dalton Schultz Anytime Touchdown (+240); Dalton Schultz 7+ Receptions (+260)

🏈Odds via FanDuel📈

The Pittsburgh Steelers defense is awful when it comes to covering tight ends. This season, the Steelers gave up 106 receptions to tight ends (fourth-worst in the NFL) for 1,121 yards (fifth-worst), and 11 touchdowns (T-fourth worst).

The Steelers have also only given up five rushing touchdowns (T-first in the NFL), and Woody Marks isn't exactly a touchdown machine, so we expect any Houston touchdowns to come through the air.

Schultz has been phenomenal this season, nearly breaking his career-high for receiving yards (777) while catching a career-high 82 passes. We love him to have a big game, capped off with a touchdown.

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No PIT Steelers Touchdown Scorer (+500)

🏈Odds via DraftKings📈

At +500, this is incredible value for a struggling team going up against the best defense in football. Pittsburgh has been held to seven points or less in two of their last six games to close out the season. We think they'll score one touchdown at the very most.