Texans Odds On The Move Following Stefon Diggs Blockbuster Trade From Bills

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Written By Brett Gibbons | Last Updated
texans odds

On Wednesday, the Houston Texans finalized a trade to bring in receiver Stefon Diggs from the Buffalo Bills. Minutes after trading for Diggs, a move that shocked the NFL world, Texans odds were on the move. Already a popular bet – the Texans were the third-most popular Super Bowl bet at BetMGM after free agency – Houston fixes to be the darling team of the 2024 season. Following a run to the AFC Divisional Round, the Texans pushed all their chips to the middle. It’s clear the NFL betting world is taking notice.

Just how quickly and how much did Texans futures odds move? Let’s take a look at their Super Bowl LIX odds, as well as within the AFC and division.

Houston Texans Futures

Browse Texans odds from the best NFL betting sites below. Click on odds anywhere to place a bet.

Texans Futures Odds Move After Stefon Diggs Trade

The Texans already saw a shift in Super Bowl odds during free agency. At BetMGM Sportsbook, that number dipped from +2500 at open to +2000. They spent over $96M on defensive additions with players like Danielle Hunter and Azeez Al-Shaair. Offensively, they attacked a struggling run game by adding Joe Mixon and re-signed glue pieces like Dalton Schultz and Noah Brown. Houston saw its window crack under young star C.J. Stroud and decided to make its move.

Houston sent a package of picks that included a 2025 second-rounder to Buffalo for Diggs, per Adam Schefter.

Just ahead of the trade, some books still offered the opening 25-1 price for the Texans to win the Super Bowl. Within minutes, that figure dropped as low as +1300. That movement represents almost a doubling in the expected win rate, from 3.9% to 7.1%. Their current odds are in line with teams like the Lions and Bengals.

Despite playing in the tougher of the two conferences, the Texans also saw a jump in odds to win the AFC. Priced as long as +1200 before the trade, odds fell as low as +700 before a slight rebound. Houston’s AFC South odds saw little immediate movement, ranging from +110 to +135.

Currently, the Texans’ best odds to win the AFC sit at .

Is Diggs Worth The Odds Movement?

Recently, receivers have had an impact on futures odds movement. Tyreek Hill was an example of an impact addition that sent Dolphins odds moving. Hill’s departure from the Chiefs also dropped their odds. But as the dust settles on that move, Kansas City holds more Super Bowl trophies than Miami has playoff wins. The continuing success of a team after ditching its star receiver may temper odds movement following blockbuster trades in the future.

But not this time around. Adding Diggs had a meteoric impact on the Texans’ betting odds.

Last year, Diggs had his worst year as a Bill. He posted four-year lows in yards (1,256) and touchdowns (8) despite seeing a three-year high in targets (175). Diggs frequently voiced his displeasure with Buffalo’s system, coinciding with a five-year low in average depth of target (10.8). The Bills also moved him inside more often – part of a growing trend of lining your alpha receiver up in the slot – lining Diggs up inside on almost 40% of plays. That resulted in a career-worst QBR when targeted (93.4).

Offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey didn’t make it through the season, being dismissed before Thanksgiving.

Texans Upgrade Offensive Weapons

Houston didn’t roster a receiver nearly at the level of Diggs last season. Rookie Tank Dell was apparently on the road to a breakout before suffering a season-ending knee injury. Nico Collins posted his first 1,000-yard season, but also suffered injuries down the stretch. Stroud made due with the pass catchers on the field, throwing for over 4,500 yards, the most by a rookie ever.

Diggs’ tenure with the Vikings ended messily. Although initially denying forcing his way out, Diggs said he did want out of Minnesota due to, “gearing towards a run-heavy [offense]”.

Tenures on both teams ended in a similar way, at least from a visual perspective – the receiver wasn’t getting what he wanted. Now heading to Houston, Diggs might see a smaller target share than when in Buffalo, as Stroud has existing rapport with Dell, Collins, Brown, and returning talent John Metchie III.

Given a cast of weapons, heavy investment in the team, and a star QB on his rookie deal, expect the Texans’ Super Bowl ticket share to rise from its existing 10.7%.

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