Houston Astros Odds: MLB Win Totals, Projections, Possible Bets
Welcome to TheLines.com's 2024 Spring Training preview of MLB odds. We'll preview every team's 2024 season with a focus on MLB win totals and World Series odds. We'll evaluate each team's roster and see if there are any wagers worth considering. Today, we'll look at Houston Astros odds. Click this link to catch up on our other 2024 MLB betting previews.
Houston reached the brink of yet another World Series appearance in 2023, faltering at the very end to division rival Texas, whom they bested on a tiebreak to win the AL West. They've largely chosen to run it back with the usual cast of stalwarts for 2024.
Will the Astros continue their dominance over the division, which they've won in each of the past six full seasons?
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Astros Odds: An Overview And What The Projections Say
First, let's compare the market on Astros odds to publicly available projections from FanGraphs and Baseball Prospectus.
- 2023 wins: 90
- Market wins: /
- FanGraphs wins: 90.5
- Baseball Prospectus wins: 95
The market splits the difference between the projection sites and expects another strong performance. In some ways, last year marked a bit of a downturn for the Astros. Ninety wins was the fewest for the franchise in a non-shortened season since 2016.
The Astros are hoping that merely represents a slight rut rather than the end of an era, as they haven't made a ton of effort to improve the team. Closer Josh Hader represents the one major addition, and he didn't come cheap, as Houston shelled out $95 million across five years.
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Evaluating The Astros Roster
Bats And Defense
Houston has boasted consistently great offenses across its run of contention, and this year looks like it will be no different.
It all revolves around Yordan Alvarez. He might be the premier hitter in baseball. He's healthy, squarely in his prime, and the scariest thing is his expected stats outpaced his actual production -- Statcast thought he was unlucky to post a 170 wRC+.
Kyle Tucker and Alex Bregman are top-level options supporting him, so long as Tucker's poor defense last year was just a blip.
Yainer Diaz will be the primary addition to the lineup. The young catcher scalded the ball last year (.360 xWOBA) while moonlighting as a first baseman and DH. He'll slot in as the main catcher this year, bringing blessed relief to Astros fans sick of watching Martin Maldonado weigh things down on both sides of the ball. Diaz also profiles as a below-average defender, but unlike Maldonado (who finished dead last in Statcast's catcher defense), he makes up for it with his bat despite being allergic to walks.
The most interesting player to track, as ever, will be franchise cornerstone Jose Altuve. He signed a massive extension following a tremendous season. Statcast thought he hugely outperformed his contact quality, something he's done on a regular basis. However, his Hard Hit% was the worst it's been since 2015.
Overall, the offense should land right around the top five, which is where the Astros finished last year. The defense, already above average, should be better, with Maldonado moving on to Chicago to mentor the White Sox's young players.
Pitching
The main reason the Astros failed to replicate the dominance of earlier campaigns was the pitching.
Framber Valdez was the only starter to both pitch a full complement of starts and do so with above-average numbers. He's an elite performer and will return to anchor the rotation. After multiple seasons of dominance, the projections are finally buying in here.
The key for the Astros will be getting more out of Hunter Brown and Cristian Javier.
After dominating across about 300 prior innings, Javier fell back toward his mediocre FIP last year. The Astros will hope he can recapture the magic of his previously elite fastball. At worst, he'll provide innings-eating competence.
Brown is a more intriguing case. Once a top prospect, Brown has some tantalizing skills. The young righty throws hard, gets copious grounders (54% career GB%), strikes guys out, and has a walk rate that's better than average. Some of his ERA estimators were far better than the ugly 5.09 numbers he posted. I'm bullish, and I'll have more in a forthcoming piece.
JP France provides back-end competence, and the Astros will hope they get something out of Justin Verlander, Lance McCullers, and Jose Urquidy. All are bound for the IL to start the season.
The back of the bullpen was elite and should be so again. The Astros sacrificed depth by letting Phil Maton, Hector Neris, and Ryne Stanek walk. But Hader, Ryan Pressly, and Bryan Abreu make for as nasty a top three as you'll find. Any injuries here would loom large, as there isn't a lot of depth after those guys.
Possible Bets On Astros Odds
The Astros enter 2024 in an interesting position. It feels like their grip on the AL West has slipped after they tied with the Rangers last year, lost to them at home in the playoffs, and watched them hoist. The Mariners are also still in pursuit and in possession of one of the best pitching staffs in baseball.
However, these teams still have their share of concerns.
The Mariners still have a weak back half of the offense. And they're starting the season with their No. 5 starter and two of the top three relievers on the IL.
Texas is set up to try and win every game 11-8, at least until close to playoff time. They have an awesome offense but a highly questionable pitching staff. It's unknown what Jacob deGrom, Tyler Mahle, and Max Scherzer will provide as each tries to return from serious injury. Nate Lowe is starting the season on the IL as well. And the bullpen looks pretty rough for the second straight year.
I think the Astros have the most complete team in the division. The elite back of the bullpen means any lead they build this season should almost always be converted into a win. I'm concerned about the depth of the pitching staff, but I think Houston is still the team to beat in the AL West.
The market has begun moving this way, and the projections believe they're underpriced by nearly even money. I'm on board with that. If you have a bet365 account, you can still get plus money, which is preferable. Otherwise, I think anything just past even is OK for a small play.
I bet the Astros to win AL West at -110 odds.
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