Horse Racing Odds: 2024 Arkansas Derby Bets On Road To The Kentucky Derby

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Written By Dave Bontempo | Last Updated
arkansas derby bets

Who is in better form, the California horses who thrived in the fall Breeders’ Cup circuit or the local talent who raised eyebrows on the 2024 Road to the Kentucky Derby? That will determine our Arkansas Derby bets surrounding favored Muth, Timberlake, and Mystik Dan in the $1.5 million Arkansas Derby Saturday from Oaklawn Park.

Each has enjoyed big moments at different times and thus became the morning-line favorites in this 10-horse field. The Arkansas Derby is the richest Run for the Roses prep race and will have a profound effect on Kentucky Derby betting odds.

Post time for the Arkansas Derby is 7:47 p.m. ET. Bettors can watch all the action of the Arkansas Derby on FanDuel TV, with new users getting up to a $200 No Sweat Win Bet via the latest FanDuel Racing promo.

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2024 Arkansas Derby Morning Line Odds

For most of this field, first place garners a guaranteed invitation and second a probable berth in the first leg of the Triple Crown. The exception is Muth, who won’t be included in 2024 Kentucky Derby odds for the $5 million race on May 4, because his trainer Bob Baffert is under suspension at Churchill Downs, home of the Kentucky Derby.

Click on the odds in the table below to bet now, and join free sports betting Discord channel to talk horse racing. Your odds after placing a bet will fluctuate until post time, per pari-mutuel rules.

1Will Take It50-1Eddie MilliganFrancisco Arrieta
2Timberlake9-5Brad Cox Flavien Prat
3Dimatic20-1Steve AsmussenChristian Torres
4Time for Truth20-1Ron MoquettRafael Bejarano
5Liberal Arts 15-1Robert MedinaTyler Gaffalione
6Informed Patriot30-1Steve AsmussenRicardo Santana
7Muth8-5Bob BaffertJuan Hernandez
8Just Steel15-1D Wayne LukasKeith Asmussen
9Mystik Dan5-2Kenneth McPeekBrian Hernandez
10Imperial Gun30-1Steve AsmussenE. Esquivel

All Stakes Pick 4

Arkansas Derby bets wrap up an exciting wagering Grand Slam. Four major events back-to back. The lineup:

  • $500,000 Oaklawn Mile, 5:32 p.m. 
  • $250,000 Matron Stakes, 6:12 p.m.
  • $750,000 Fantasy Stakes, 7 p.m.
  • $1.5 Million Arkansas Derby, 7:47 p.m.

Arkansas Derby Past Performances

1. Will Take It (50-1)

Has shown better recent form at Oaklawn, but hasn’t been able to win at maiden special weights company. Not going to happen in a $1.5 million race.

2. Timberlake (9-5)

Can he go back-to-back for the millions? Captured the $1.25 million Rebel Stakes with a thunderous rally after chasing a fast pace. It was a nice 2024 debut after he finished fourth in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile in November. There was everything to love about his last effort at 4-5 betting odds. And there is every reason to expect he will run strongly again. Major threat.

3. Dimatic (20-1)

Made good effort to graduate from maiden special weights into the Rebel. But Tyler Gaffalione got him caught in traffic in the backstretch, probably costing him fourth rather than the eventual fifth. With a better trip, bettors might see him at the bottom of the exotics.

4. Time For Truth (20-1)

Really liked that 1 1–16-mile triumph at allowance optional claiming over the same track. Has been forwardly placed in all three career races. May be on the lead again and loves this track. On the down side, his 1:45.88 time was far slower than the 1:44 Timberlake authored in winning the Rebel. If you choose that barometer, he would finish a few lengths off.

5. Liberal Arts (15-1)

Found his best stride late in the Southwest, copping third and nearly second with a strong surge. That put him about seven lengths behind impressive winner Mystik Dan, whom he faces again. Runs late. Could hit the board if the speed backs up.

6. Informed Patriot (30-1)

Go back to New Year’s Day and he ran an inspired third to Catching Freedom in the Smarty Jones. He beat Mystik Dan that day. But a month or so later, he was a dull fifth in the Sunland Derby. Mystik Dan roared back to win the Southwest. Could run better than these odds project, but not seen as a threat.

7. Muth (8-5)

Bob Baffert trainee who hit the far turn even with Fierceness in the Breeders Cup Juvenile last November before barely hanging on for second. Won the San Vicente at seven furlongs after that. Venturing beyond the cozy confines of California, where he’s run all of his races, won’t be easy. Nor will striding out to 1 1/8 miles. But he’s game and fit. Stalker, right in it. Hasn’t competed since early January.

8. Just Steel (15-1)

Made a five-wide move as Timberlake was moving four wide in the Rebel Stakes. Timberlake went on to win and Just Steel flattened out to fifth. Needs to be more forwardly placed, as the deep rally does not appear to suit him. On the board if on his best.

9. Mystik Dan (5-2)

Demonstrative Southwest victory behind jockey Brian “Houdini” Hernandez, who guided him through a narrow rail opening to get the lead. Mystik Dan then won by six authoritative lengths in the rare role of closer. At 20-1 no less. The most dominant triumph on the Prep circuit to date. Was that a one-trick pony burst or are we looking at a champion? We will see.

Major advantage of having two straight 1 1/16-mile efforts over this track. Beyers don’t lie. He has an impressive 101 figure, far and away the best in this field. Timberlake is next with 93. Odds may be propped up if bettors link his Southwest victory to muddy conditions.

10. Imperial Gun (30-1)

Could not win in allowance company, but for this kind of purse, his connections will take a shot.

Pace Scenario

Time for Truth keeps the race honest on the front end. Muth and Timberlake are best in the stalk-and-attack mode. Mystik Dan figures to break sharply. In winning the Southwest, he broke alertly and settled about six lengths back on the rail. That’s the approximate distance Angel of Empire made his winning move from in the 2023 Arkansas Derby.

Liberal Arts and Just Steel figure to run late. Just Steel can’t be as far back as he was in the Rebel.

My Arkansas Derby Bets

Win bet on No. 9 Mystik Dan: his putaway drive in the Southwest was definitive, even defiant. Had enough gas in the tank to have gone 1 1/8 miles that day if necessary. He needs at least second place to reach the Kentucky Derby and this is the best place for him to try.

Exacta Box: 9-2 (Mystik Dan-Timberlake): I favor races over the track. Timberlake and Mystik Dan won impressively here. Muth not only ships but races for the first time in nearly three months.

$0.50 Trifecta Box: 2-7-8-9 (Timberlake, Muth, Just Steel, Mystik Dan); cost:$12: puts Just Steel in the picture in case one of the favorites flops. Next behind him is No. 4 Time for Truth. I have to find a place for him on Saturday.

Whatever your angles are, I hope they lead you to some cashed tickets. Good luck with your Arkansas Derby bets. Bring home a winner!