The Florida Swing is officially underway, with action kicking off at PGA National this Thursday for the 2023 Honda Classic. The field lacks the star power of the last two elevated events, but still presents some great value opportunity for longshot contenders in the outright and placement markets.
Below we’ll go through my final betting card after my Honda Classic preview. Click the odds anywhere in this article to place Honda Classic bets.
HOW I BUILT MY HONDA CLASSIC BETTING CARD
In a field as weak as this one, it seems wide open for at least half of the field to contend. With that in mind, I took the approach of a high volume outright card, fading the favorites and hedging exposure across a long list of longshots. Overall, I looked to prioritize in-form ball strikers with proven success on and around Bermuda greens.
In terms of unit allocations for my betting card this week, it’s back to business as usual for Honda Classic odds.
- Outrights – 3U in to pay 24U each
- FRL – 0.5U in to pay out 10U+ each
- Props – 3U in to pay out 3U+ each
Click on any of the odds below for Honda Classic bets and the best available prices across legal sportsbooks in your state.
HONDA CLASSIC BETS: OUTRIGHTS (3 UNITS)
Matt Kuchar
My Bet: +2800
Best Odds Still Available:
Matt Kuchar was my featured spotlight player in this week’s tournament preview, and while I was hoping to find a 30-1 on him, a hot finish at the Genesis Invitational has kept him in the high twenties. I’ll trade couple points for the trending form, however, as I was sold on Kuchar’s prospects at PGA National after he ranked top-5 in SG: T2G through the first three rounds of the Genesis Invitational. Honda Classic champions have shown signals with their performances at the Sony Open and Genesis Invitational in the months prior, and Kuchar suits that trend with top-10 finishes at both. It’s been 21 years since he last won this event, but a hot start to his 2023 season suggests he still has plenty left in the tank to win a tournament.
Sepp Straka
My Bet: +5000
Best Odds Still Available:
I expected Straka to be grouped amongst the likes of Chris Kirk, Adam Svensson, and Alex Noren when odds released on Monday. Instead, the 2022 Honda Classic champion slipped to a secondary tier behind each of them, so I’ve opted to take the savings on a player we know can thrive in these conditions. His win last year came as a surprise in form not too different from what we’ve seen from in in 2023 thus far. He hasn’t been as active playing this season, but highlights include a runner up at the Sanderson Farms and finishing No. 2 in the loaded Sentry Tournament of Champions field in terms of SG: APP. I like the 50-1 odds as a Course History play on someone who’s proven can pop on any Bermuda set up.
Byeong Hun An
My Bet: +6500
Best Odds Still Available:
Another Course History play, An has gained more total strokes at the Honda Classic than any other player in this field, with a resume that includes two top-5 finishes over his last four appearances, and has gained strokes off-the-tee and on approach in all four career trips to the Honda Classic. His form remain solid entering this week on a streak of four consecutive cuts made, highlighted by a T12 at the Sony Open. He was in contention entering the back-nine on Sunday at the Sony, and posted the best putting display of his career there, gaining 6.9 strokes on the greens. That’s an encouraging sign as he returns to Bermuda greens here for the first time since.
Hayden Buckley
My Bet: +7000
Best Odds Still Available:
Keith Mitchell has leaned on his elite, consistent driving to find repeated success at PGA National, and with him absent this week, Buckley is next closest player in this field to fit that mold. Buckley ranks No. 1 in SG: OTT, No. 2 in Greens In Regulation, and No. 4 in SG: Ball Striking. These are all very encouraging signals for a course as demanding on tee shots and approaches as PGA National. There are few other players in this field who can combine that ball striking prowess with consistent short game metrics on Bermuda. Buckley’s four best career finishes have come between the Sony Open and Sanderson Farms, so a return to Bermuda to kick off the Florida Swing may be the extra push he needs to pick up his first career PGA TOUR victory.
Joseph Bramlett
My Bet: +7500
Best Odds Still Available:
I watched Bramlett play amongst the final groups at the Farmers Insurance Open, and was impressed by how many knee-knockers he was able to convert on those tricky Poa greens to remain in contention. Like Cameron Champ and Luke List, his distance alone presents him with a leg up on the competition, as he is hitting wedges into long par-4s while most opponents are left with long irons. That’s manifested into a No. 1 ranking in terms of Greens In Regulation over the last 24 rounds for Bramlett, and on a set up where you only need to reach -10 to win, he’ll be able to contend with just a neutral putter this week.
SH Kim
My Bet: +9000
Best Odds Still Available:
As we get further down the odds board, I’m looking for specialists who have shown upside in comp conditions. The Sony Open has been a constant reference point for me, as the most recent event played on Bermuda and a strong historical indicator of future Honda Classic results to come. Kim finished T12 in his Sony Open debut this year, and impressively, has gained strokes putting in all 11 starts to kick off his PGA TOUR rookie season. This is no putting contest, but his ball striking numbers hold up well enough to take a chance at these long odds, entering with three top-40 finishes over his last four starts.
Ben Taylor
My Bet: +9000
Best Odds Still Available:
I’m bullish on Ben Taylor this season based on what we’ve seen so far from him in 2023. Taylor has been positive across the four main strokes gained categories over his last events with two top-five finishes at the Houston Open and Sony Open over that span. His well rounded game makes him a suitable fit across most courses, and despite some hiccups on the west coast swing, I believe a return to Bermuda against a weaker field presents a nice get-right spot for Taylor.
Dylan Frittelli
My Bet: +13000
Best Odds Still Available:
I would not have been surprised to see Frittelli open at half this number, consider he is on a short list of players in this field to have recorded multiple top-20 finishes at the Honda Classic over the last five years. With two top-5 finishes in Majors since 2020, Frittelli seems to be comfortable in difficult scoring conditions, and his driving is trending better than ever before entering this week’s event.
Kyle Westmoreland
My Bet: +50000 (Each Way)
Best Odds Still Available:
I’m a sucker for bombs in these weak field events where an imposing Jon Rahm-like presence is missing. Westmoreland is one of the most underrated ball-strikers in this field, gaining strokes on approach in eight consecutive measured events and ranking top-10 in terms of Driving Distance. It’s a long shot, but very low risk at these odds coming off of a solid T29 at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am.
HONDA CLASSIC FIRST ROUND LEADER BETS (0.5 UNITS)
Byeong Hun An
My Bet: +6000
Best Odds Still Available:
The No. 1 rank in Course History suggests An should be comfortable on this daunting course set up, and a career best putting performance in his latest start on Bermuda greens creates a solid foundation for a hot start in Palm Beach Gardens.
Erik van Rooyen
My Bet: +8000
Best Odds Still Available:
Erik van Rooyen’s inconsistency and struggles to avoid blow up holes over a four round stretch are the only reason he’s missing from my outright card, but he’s a top-10 player in my model with elite ball-striking upside, so well worth backing for Thursday only.
Aaron Rai
My Bet: +8000
Best Odds Still Available:
Our first FRL cash of 2023 came at the hands of Rai, who has slowly become one of the more reliable Round 1 scorers on the PGA TOUR. Rai has had strong results on comp Bermuda courses, and is one of only three players in this field to have finished top-20 in the 2021 WGC Workday at The Concession, which I believe to be the top comp course to PGA National.
Adam Schenk
My Bet: +8500
Best Odds Still Available:
One of the more reliable putters in this field, Schenk has the ability to go low in more difficult conditions, where he ranks No. 15 in SG: TOT. He’s trending well with four consecutive made cuts, and ranks No. 4 in SG: TOT over the last 12 rounds.
Ben Taylor
My Bet: +10000
Best Odds Still Available:
This should be a suitable set up for Taylor’s game, as he ranks above-average in terms of SG: OTT, SG: APP, SG: ARG, and SG: P over his last 10 events. He enters this week No. 1 in Bermuda Putting, making for an appealing bounce back opportunity after a rocky California swing.
HONDA CLASSIC PROPS (3.0 UNITS)
Top-20 Finish: Hayden Buckley
My Bet: +240
Best Odds Still Available:
Poor course history has inflated Buckley’s top-20 odds, but it’s clear the state of his game is better now than ever before. Buckley’s elite strengths off the tee should position him well for doubles-or-worse, and a return to familiar Bermuda greens present a higher floor for the Florida resident.
Top-20 Finish: Ben Griffin
My Bet: +270
Best Odds Still Available:
Ben Griffin is going to be a mainstay at the top of models for the foreseeable future, so while I still have some concerns about the rookie winning a tournament in difficult conditions, it’s clear his game is suitable for these conditions, as he’s had his best results on Bermuda greens. With seven top-30 finishes this season already, I like his chances to find the top 20 in this weaker field.
Top-40 Finish: Kyle Westmoreland
My Bet: +330
Best Odds Still Available:
Anytime I’m willing to throw a few dollars on a 500/1+ outright, it’s a safe bet you’ll find me backing him up as a top-40 insurance play as well. Westmoreland has two top-30 finishes over his last six starts, each coming against stronger fields than this week’s Honda Classic. PGA National should cater to his ball-striking strengths, and I expect the PGA TOUR rookie to continue to improve as he gains more professional playing experience each week.
Top-20 Finish: Dylan Frittelli
My Bet: +410
Best Odds Still Available:
Frittelli seems to be one of the most under-valued players in the field this week. He ranks No. 12 in SG: TOT over the last 12 rounds, and has a pair of top-20 finishes at the Honda Classic already. Gaining strokes OTT in each of his last four starts, his game is trending well for a high finish at PGA National.
ONE AND DONE
My Pick: Matt Kuchar
A quick look through the board would suggest that Sungjae Im and Shane Lowry are the only players in this week’s field who OAD players would consider saving for future, larger purse events. With that said, this is likely the best chance both of these players will have to win a PGA TOUR tournament outright, so they will naturally be the highest owned players in OAD this week. Min Woo Lee is a trendy pick as well, considering he won’t have many other PGA TOUR starts this season, but I’m hesitant to make a debutant my OAD selection. So instead, I’m sticking to my guns with Matt Kuchar, who I assuredly will not look to play in OAD for any future event this season, at expected lower ownership than the other trendy choices at the top of the board this week.
If not Kuchar, I would also consider Sungjae Im, Chris Kirk, or Min Woo Lee as OAD picks.
HONDA CLASSIC: THE BETTING CARD
That’ll do it for this week’s Genesis Invitational bets. Best of luck this week with your own Honda Classic bets, and see you on Sunday for the 2023 Arnold Palmer Invitational Preview. For more, follow TheLines on Twitter.
HONDA CLASSIC BETS: ODDS TO WIN
Compare odds across sportsbooks in your state, and click any of the odds below to make Honda Classic bets now.
