MLB Home Run Derby Betting Odds, Bracket, Baseball Event Rules

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Written By Brett Gibbons | Last Updated
home run derby odds

The 2023 MLB Home Run Derby during the All-Star break begins Monday, July 10, at 8:00 p.m. ET/5:00 p.m. PT from Seattle. Pete Alonso tops Home Run Derby odds tables over Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Julio Rodriguez, Mookie Betts, and more. The HR Derby rules are a big part of determining who will win. Below we’ll explain how the Home Run Derby works ahead of the broadcast on ESPN.

Under the bright lights of Seattle, bats will crack and baseballs will soar in the 2023 MLB Home Run Derby. Mets first baseman Pete Alonso is the favorite to win the dinger derby Monday, lined at +300 at DraftKings Sportsbook. He tops the Jays’ Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (+360) and Mariners youngster Julio Rodriguez (+600), among others in the field. However, a betting favorite appears to be Luis Robert Jr. (+450), who took early action and was bet down from a +600 opening mark.

But betting on the winner isn’t the only option open – the best sports betting sites offer a half-dozen prop markets, including longest home run. Someone cover up the Space Needle, because the longest home run prop is set at 490.5 feet! But before you bet, you gotta know the rules of the Derby. We’ll detail that too below.

Home Run Derby Odds: To Win Outright

Click on odds in the table below to bet on Home Run Derby odds. These are the best available odds for each player so you don’t have to search each sportsbook.

Players In The 2023 Home Run Derby

Ahead of the All Star break, Alonso checks in with the second-most homers in the National League (26), one spot ahead of Mookie Betts (23). Alonso also has 30 fewer at bats than Betts, but the Met has failed to find his rhythm at the plate this season, batting just .218. Alonso looks to join Ken Griffey Jr. to be the only three-time derby champions, having won back in 2019 and 2021.

Robert Jr. (25) and Adolis Garcia (22) also sit second and third in the American League, behind Shoehi Ohtani. Robert Jr. is the top seed in the bracket. He matches up with Adley Rutchman of the Orioles, and then the winner of Garcia and Randy Arozarena for a spot in the finals.

Guerrero Jr., the sixth seed, matches up with Betts in the first round. The winner of that matchup faces the winner of Alonso/Rodriguez for the other finals spot.

With six participants, the American League is a big -275 favorite over the National League at BetMGM. The NL can be found as long as +220 at DraftKings Sportsbook.

Home Run Derby Rules

Since 2014, the Home Run Derby has been an eight person, head-to-head bracket format. Seeds are organized based on the number of home runs each participant hit at the time of selection. The No. 1 seed faces the No. 8 seed in the first round, the No. 4 takes on the No. 5, and so on (see the bracket below). The higher seed hits second in each of the three rounds.

Each batter has three minutes to hit as many home runs as they can. A batter can earn between 30 and 60 bonus seconds, so long as he hits at least two homers of 440+ feet during the round. Batters are also awarded a 45-second timeout in each round. Whoever hits the most home runs in their matchup advances.

Should the batters tie, a 60-second swing-off determines the victor. Should the tie last beyond the initial swing-off, the batters go to a three-swing overtime period to determine a winner.

The ultimate Derby winner takes home $1 million in prize money and the total pool is set at $2.5 million.

Related: Pujols, Soto Star In 2022 Home Run Derby Controversy

Home Run Derby Bracket

Image courtesy of: Associated Press

Home Run Finalists, Straight Forecast Odds

To Make The Finals
Finalists
Exact Result

Click on the odds to place your betDraftKings:
BetMGM:
Robert Jr. vs. Alonso
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Garcia vs. Alonso
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Robert Jr. vs. Guerrero Jr.
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Garcia vs. Guerrero Jr.
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Arozarena vs. Alonso
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Robert Jr. vs. Rodriguez
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Garcia vs. Rodriguez
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Arozarena vs. Guerrero Jr.
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Click on the odds to place your betDraftKings:
BetMGM:
Alonso OVER Robert Jr.
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Alonso OVER Garcia
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Guerrero Jr. OVER Robert Jr.
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Guerrero Jr. OVER Garcia
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Alonso OVER Arozarena
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Robert Jr. OVER Alonso
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Robert Jr. OVER Guerrero Jr.
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Rodriguez OVER Robert Jr.
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Continue the conversation on TheLines FREE sports betting Discord. Visit the #roles server to get a push notification whenever our staff places a bet.

Head-To-Head Home Run Derby Matchups

Robert Jr. vs. Rutschman
Garcia vs. Arozarena
Alonso vs. Rodriguez
Guerrero Jr. vs. Betts

Click on the odds to place your betDraftKings:
BetMGM:
L. Robert Jr.
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A. Rutschman
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BetMGM:
A. Garcia
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R. Arozarena
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P. Alonso
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J. Rodriguez
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BetMGM:
V. Guerrero Jr.
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M. Betts
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Odds To Hit Longest Home Run

Who will hit the longest home run?

It’s no surprise that the five longest homers ever recorded in the Derby came in 2021’s event in Colorado. Coors Field stands 5,200 feet above sea level – a far cry from Seattle this year (14 feet). Aaron Judge holds the top four spots for non-Coors Field dingers, all of which were set in 2017 in Miami; his longest topped out at 513 feet.

Vlad hit his longest homer last season, a 467-foot bomb with an exit velocity a hair under 118 mph. Robert Jr. made headlines with a 450-foot homer in early July, the longest by a White Sox player this season. However, none of the participants have any of the top 32 longest homers this season. The bar is set by Ohtani, who hit a 493-foot homer in June.

The over/under for longest home run this Derby is 490.5 feet (Over -115).

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