2024 Home Run Derby Odds & New Rules: Mets 2-Time Champ Pete Alonso The Favorite
The 2024 Home Run Derby is Monday at 8 p.m. ET at Globe Life Field in Arlington, Texas. Sportsbooks are hosting MLB odds for the All-Star Break tradition, with New York Mets first baseman Pete Alonso the favorite. Alonso is not a heavy favorite in home run derby odds across sports betting sites, with Marcell Ozuna of the Atlanta Braves right behind the two-time winner of the event.
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2024 Home Run Derby Odds
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2024 Home Run Derby Odds
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Pete Alonso
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Marcell Ozuna
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Adolis García
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Gunnar Henderson
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Bobby Witt Jr.
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Teoscar Hernández
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José Ramírez
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Alec Bohm
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New 2024 Home Run Derby Rules
No Bracket In First Round
The first round will have no bracket seeding. All eight hitters compete, with the top four advancing to the semifinals.
At that point, there is a bracket: No. 1 vs. No. 4 and No. 2 vs. No. 3, with seeding determined by the number of homers each player hit in the first round. The tiebreaker for higher seed is the longest home run hit in the first round.
Pitch Count
The first two rounds will again be three minutes, and the final round at two minutes. But now, there’s a maximum of 40 pitches in the first round and semifinals. So it’s three minutes or 40 pitches, whichever comes first. In the finals, it’s two minutes or 27 pitches, whichever comes first, excluding the bonus period.
Untimed Bonus Pitches
Each player now gets bonus pitches up until they record three outs (any non-homer swing is an out) within the bonus period. If a player hits a home run of at least 425 feet in the bonus period, he gets a fourth out.
Notable Players Absent
The top-two MLB home run leaders will not be competing. Arron Judge of the New York Yankees (32) and Shohei Ohtani of the Los Angeles Dodgers (28) have declined to participate in the 2024 Home Run Derby.
Home Run Derby Odds: The Favorites
Pete Alonso is no stranger to the Home Run Derby, having won it twice in 2021 and 2019. Alonso has 18 home runs this season, leading the Mets. Alonso’s previous performances in the HR Derby likely have sportsbooks seeing him as the favorite. During the 2021 HR Derby, Alonzo finished with 74 total homers and 23 in the finals.
Marcell Ozuna has never been a part of the HR Derby, but he is fourth in the league in home runs with 24 for the season. Ozuna has been one of the better hitters in the MLB throughout his career. He has 260 total home runs and bombed 40 over the fence last season, the fifth-most in the NL.
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Underdogs To Consider
One batter that bettors should factor in this contest is Gunnar Henderson of the Baltimore Orioles. Henderson is in his second MLB season and leads all Derby participants in home runs with 27. He trails only Judge and Ohtani this season. Henderson is a left-handed hitter, which will benefit him at Globe Life Field.
The right field line at Globe Life Field is 326 feet. This is the shortest path to clearing the fence for a homer.
Texas Rangers slugger Adolis García is another underdog that bettors should be making note of. García will have a home-field advantage in the competition and will also be looking to redeem himself from his performance at last year’s Derby. He lost in the first round to Randy Arozarena in 2023.
Garcia has 17 homers this season.
Home Run Total Rankings For Contestants
- Gunnar Henderson (28)
- Marcell Ozuna (26)
- José Ramírez (23)
- Teoscar Hernández (19)
- Pete Alonso (19)
- Adolis García (17)
- Bobby Witt Jr. (16)
- Alec Bohm (11)
Ranking Derby Contestants Via Bat Speed Metrics
Using Stacast Bat Tracking, a new bat speed leaderboard, fans have a new way of looking at the Home Run Derby. The data shows that higher bat speeds lead to higher exit velocities. While it does not automatically mean a player will hit the ball, what bat speed does indicate is that balls that are hit travel further with higher bat speeds. The MLB average bat speed is 72 miles per hour.
Home Run Derby Contestants Ranked Via Bat Speed
- Gunnar Henderson: 75.8 mph (MLB rank: 9th)
- Pete Alonso: 75.0 mph (21st)
- Bobby Witt Jr.: 74.6 mph (28th)
- Marcell Ozuna: 74.2 mph (37th)
- Teoscar Hernández: 73.3 mph (49th)
- Alec Bohm: 72.4 mph (80th)
- Adolis García: 72.2 mph (86th)
- José Ramírez: 71.4 mph (117th)
Gunnar Henderson is the only contestant with a top-ten bat speed. He also has an average bat speed on homers at 77.2 miles per hour.
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