Eli’s Home Run Derby Picks: Bracket, Betting Odds, Props, Expert Predictions
With the 2024 MLB All-Star break upon us, the T-Mobile Home Run Derby has set foot in Arlington, Texas. The festivities will begin at 8 p.m. ET on Monday, July 15, at Globe Life Field. While sluggers Aaron Judge, Juan Soto, and Shohei Ohtani decided against participating, there’s still ample power in the field and on the odds board. Let’s assess the bracket, new rules, and my picks for the Home Run Derby.
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2024 home run derby: updated format
If you’re in search of a formal bracket, there is none.
The first round isn’t a head-to-head battle any longer. Following the first round, the four participants with the most home runs will advance to the semifinals. They’ll be seeded in a head-to-head “knockout style,” with the highest scorer claiming the No. 1 overall seed. The longest home run distance represents the tiebreaker for seeding or qualifying.
In the first two rounds, hitters will be capped at three minutes, including a maximum of 40 pitches per round. Thus, pitchers won’t be in a rush to throw as many balls as possible, increasing the potential for fatigue or injury.
Although there’s still bonus time at the end of each round, no timer will be incorporated. After the player tallies three “outs,” the bonus time concludes. If a player hits a 425-foot homer or longer, he’ll inherit an extra out.
During semifinals or finals, a 60-second swing-off will constitute the tiebreaker. Within this short span, no timeouts are allowed.
Moreover, each finalist will be granted 27 pitches and one timeout.
a. Garcia: first-round hr total
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Over 23.5
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Under 23.5
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my home run derby pick(s)
Normally, I would shy away from Rangers slugger Adolis Garcia, whose lengthy swing makes him prone to combusting as the tournament progresses. The 2023 ALCS MVP is one of two returnees from last year’s Derby, clubbing 17 first-round dingers (second-fewest in the field) before being ousted by Rays outfielder Randy Arozenera. But with the new pitch limit intact, contestants shouldn’t be as rushed this time.
Additionally, Garcia’s hard-hit rate is still above the likes of Bryce Harper and Yordan Alvarez despite ranking in the 89th percentile in barrel rate. For context, he slotted into the 96th percentile in 2023.
Per Baseball Savant, righty bats have generated 20% more homers at Globe Life Field than other ballparks from 2022 onwards. Conversely, lefties have hit only 10% more homers in Arlington than elsewhere.
The right-handed Garcia recently mentioned through an interpreter that he’s deciding between various pitchers. Rangers third-base coach Tony Beasley will likely get the nod if none are available. Social media mocked Beasley for his inauspicious pitches in the 2023 Home Run Derby, but he’s thrown in the event in multiple seasons.
Suppose you can snag Garcia’s best available odds (+600 at BetMGM Sportsbook) at the time of publish. In that case, you’re nabbing a no-vig edge of 11.5% compared to Circa Sports (+455), one of the sharper operators nationwide.
If Garcia is crowned the champion, he’ll become the fourth player to win in his home park. Ryne Sandberg (1990), Todd Frazier (2015), and Bryce Harper (2018) were the previous winners who accomplished this historic feat.
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Home Run Derby Sportsbook Promos
At DraftKings Sportsbook, users can haul in a profit boost for their Home Run Derby picks. After opting into this offer, you’ll be issued one profit boost token to use on any Home Run Derby bet — before or while live betting the event. Profit boost percentages vary, and maximum betting limits apply. The minimum odds must be at least -200 to be eligible for this profit boost.
FanDuel’s Dinger Tuesday and “Homerfest” at DraftKings are your go-to spots for home run picks throughout the MLB regular season. All customers can receive bonus bets while sweating their home run bets each Tuesday. Check out this generous FanDuel Sportsbook promo code, and search any player’s name in our price shopping tool to find the best available home run odds when the 2024 campaign resumes.