Home Run Bets: Friday MLB Picks & Promos, Including Yankees' Chisholm Jr.
Baseball fans can scoop up bonus bets while sweating home run wagers daily throughout the season. Here, we'll review possible home run picks for April 4, evaluating some options. Remember that these evaluations can be applied to fantasy sports picks and MLB odds.
We whiffed yesterday after a mini-hot streak, as Josh Naylor and Matt McLain failed to come through.
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We'll provide a few home run bets each day this article runs. But keep in mind when perusing these that the situations apply to more than just the player named. You can use that logic with many players when targeting pitchers, bullpens, or homer-friendly conditions. For example, if we select Aaron Judge but you want a longer shot, you can easily bet on Anthony Volpe instead.
Programming note: I will skip over the earliest slate of games for these home run bets.
Drake Baldwin
I'm starting with a spicy one. Drake Baldwin is off to a dreadful start, batting .056 after five games. The Braves gave him the day off at their last outing and brought in Jason Delay from the Pirates, so the pressure on Baldwin to perform could ramp up.
All that said, the kid isn't exactly embarrassing himself out there. He's hitting the ball quite hard, sporting a .389 xwOBA. And his swing decisions seem fine so far. He has a below-average chase rate, a BB% of 10, and a reasonable K% of 20.
I don't mind a shot on Baldwin at long odds to get his first MLB dinger.
Opposing pitcher Max Meyer looked good in the spring but has had significant homer issues in a tiny MLB sample (2.23 HR/9 in 68 IP). It's too early to say whether that's a genuine concern, but I like targeting this dreadful Marlins pen even if it isn't.
Jazz Chisholm Jr.
Not many hitters are off a hotter start than Jazz Chisholm. The charismatic multi-positional slugger has embraced the new torpedo bats and is reaping the benefits. He's scorching the ball with a 93.3 average exit velocity and a .419 xwOBA.
Playing for the Yankees, in general, seems to agree with him. Chisholm already has four homers this year after tallying a 132 wRC+ last year as a Yank.
Unfortunately, the Yankees are playing in one of the worst parks for homers today.
Still, Mitch Keller is a guy who has struggled to get lefties out in his career, allowing above-average offensive output to them. On a day when I don't love the options, I don't mind gambling on Chisholm.
Brandon Lowe
Good luck projecting Tyler Mahle. The oft-injured righty has thrown about 40 MLB innings since 2022. He was once quite a solid pitcher, but there's no way to know where he's now, aside from the fact that he was near his normal velocity in his first outing.
After arm injuries, the last thing to return is often command. Poor command can mean pitches leaking into the middle of the plate, and Brandon Lowe tends to do a lot of damage on those versus right-handed pitchers. He's pretty weak against lefties, but hopefully, he doesn't have to worry too much about that here. Texas' pen has two lefties in it.
Texas is one of the better parks for homers, coming out fifth in the park factors.
General Home Run Betting Strategies
Several factors will help point the way to games that may see higher home-run totals.
For one, look for ballparks with an above-average rate of home runs hit. Statcast's park factors can help. The linked table is also sortable by handedness via the filters.
If you're targeting a particularly lefty- or righty-heavy lineup, sort by the home-fun factor for that handedness to get an even better idea of the home-run potential.
Targeting higher game totals will also help. Look for games with high over/unders — preferably at least eight.
While home runs allowed can be volatile, we can also look at pitcher home-run rates. Some pitchers have a true talent for suppressing or allowing more homers than average. Maybe they give up too many fly balls, which can lead to more home runs. Or opposing hitters barrel their pitches at a higher-than-normal rate due to poor command or fastball shape.
Finally, check the weather. Outfield winds and high temperatures can cause balls to fly further than usual, which means a higher chance of home runs. Conversely, cold weather and infield winds can kill fly balls.
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