Home Run Bets: Wednesday MLB Picks & Promos, Including Lawrence Butler
Baseball fans can scoop up bonus bets while sweating home run wagers daily throughout the season. Here, we'll review possible home run picks for April 2, evaluating some options. Remember that these evaluations can be applied to fantasy sports picks and MLB odds.
Yesterday, we had one home run bet come home as Christian Yelich went yard. He helped the Brewers to a 5-0 win as they got off the schneid.
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We'll provide a few home run bets each day this article runs. But keep in mind when perusing these that the situations apply to more than just the player named. You can use that logic with many players when targeting pitchers, bullpens, or homer-friendly conditions. For example, if we select Aaron Judge but you want a longer shot, you can easily bet on Anthony Volpe instead.
Programming note: I will skip over the earliest slate of games for these home run bets.
Lawrence Butler
It's early, but the new A's park has a 155 park factor. The home-run factor is a little below average (96), but my lying eyes tell me the ball is flying off the bats when I've watched games there.
Butler has done some of that damage, smashing a double at 97 mph in the first game of the series. The young slugger, tabbed with 70 future power by FanGraphs' prospect team, broke out last year with 22 bombs and a 130 wRC+. He can likely better the former number in more homer-friendly confines this year.
Jameson Taillon is solid, but he's given up 1.31 HR/9 to lefties in his career. He also doesn't issue many walks, so the patient Butler (more walks than strikeouts so far) should get something to offer.
Jazz Chisholm Jr.
Zac Gallen has been quite good at preventing home runs in his career, but his command has been looking scattershot since the middle of last season. He didn't inspire confidence in his opener, issuing 4 BBs and a homer to the Cubs despite pitching in friendly confines at Chase Field (86 park factor).
Yankee Stadium boosts lefty power a ton, so he will be hurting if he misses guys like Chisholm and Jasson Dominguez.
Plus, Chisholm is one of the Yankees using the new torpedo bats. He's smacking the ball with it so far with a .402 xwOBA. Maybe he's got value until the market prices these things.
Michael Conforto
Bryce Elder joins the Braves rotation thanks to an early injury to Reynaldo Lopez. Bats pounded his mediocre stuff last year, tagging him for 1.45 HR/9.
Lefties have always been a thorn in his side, which is a little surprising considering that his pitch mix includes about 75% sinkers and sliders. These are generally the worst pitches to throw to opposite-handed hitters, and Elder has an xFIP north of 5.00 against them.
Conforto was the only notable position player addition to L.A. this season. He's hammering the ball with a .529 SLG and has a .480 career mark against righties.
The wind might be howling tonight at Dodger Stadium, with 20 mph gusts in the current forecast.
General Home Run Betting Strategies
Several factors will help point the way to games that may see higher home-run totals.
For one, look for ballparks with an above-average rate of home runs hit. Statcast's park factors can help. The linked table is also sortable by handedness via the filters if you're targeting a particularly lefty- or righty-heavy lineup, sort by the home-fun factor for that handedness to get an even better idea of the home-run potential.
Targeting higher game totals will also help. Look for games with high over/unders — preferably at least 8.
While home runs allowed can be volatile, we can also look at pitcher home-run rates. Some pitchers have a true talent for suppressing or allowing more homers than average. Maybe they give up too many fly balls, which can lead to more home runs. Or opposing hitters barrel their pitches at a higher-than-normal rate due to poor command or fastball shape.
Finally, check the weather. Outfield winds and high temperatures can cause balls to fly further than normal, which means a higher chance of home runs. Conversely, cold weather and infield winds can kill fly balls.
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