MLB Home Run Odds: Eli’s FanDuel Dinger Tuesday & DK Homerfest Bets For July 9

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Written By Eli Hershkovich | Last Updated
Home Run Bets

Rejoice. FanDuel’s Dinger Tuesday and “Homerfest” at DraftKings Sportsbook are back for your favorite home run bets. Baseball bettors can receive bonus bets while sweating their home run wagers every Tuesday during the season. Let’s rifle through some potential home run picks on this MLB slate. This analysis can also be applied to fantasy sports picks.

Check out the latest FanDuel Sportsbook promo code for today’s Dinger Tuesday slate, and search any player’s name in our Prop Finder Tool to find the best available home run odds.

Home Runs Odds: Prop Finder Tool

FanDuel Dinger Tuesday Promo

For those unfamiliar, we’ll provide a quick refresher on this popular FanDuel promo. Bet $25 or more on any player’s “To Hit a Home Run” market on FanDuel. Regardless of the bet’s outcome, FanDuel will award your account a $5 bonus bet for each home run hit in that game by either team. Players must opt-in, and bonus bets expire after seven days.

Let’s say you wager $25 on Red Sox third baseman Rafael Devers (+300) to hit a bomb at Fenway Park with this offer. For reference, he’s homered three times in the last two games, but that’s certainly baked into his odds.

Even if Devers doesn’t go yard, it is a positive Expected Value (+EV) wager. If Boston and Oakland combine for at least four homers, your $25 bet would turn into $20 in bonus bets.

DraftKings Homerfest Promo

DraftKings Sportsbook has joined the fun. Unlike Dinger Tuesday, this promo applies to all home runs on July 9. Just opt-in, then make a qualifying home run bet ($20 or more, odds of +100 or longer). You’ll earn up to $1 in bonus bets for every home run.

Promo value may vary by customer. Read all promotional terms and conditions before opting in and wagering.

How To Identify Home Run Candidates

While home runs can be volatile, pitchers’ HR rates are a valuable resource. Some arms have a knack for suppressing or allowing more home runs than the league average. They may surrender too many fly balls, leading to more dingers (hopefully on Tuesdays). They could also benefit from a lucky stretch, which is a part of the premise behind FIP and xERA.

Outfield winds and humid temperatures can lead to balls traveling further than normal, leading to a higher probability for homers. On the flip side, cold weather and infield winds will kill the flight of fly balls.

Eli’s potential Home Run Bets For Dinger Tuesday & DraftKings Homerfest

Bryan Reynolds ()

Recently named an All-Star for the second time in his career, the Pirates’ left fielder has a tasty matchup versus Brewers right-hander Colin Rea at American Family Field.

Rea is set up for the most negative regression (on paper) among all starting pitchers on Tuesday’s MLB slate. Despite tallying a 3.34 ERA, his 5.17 xERA and 1.24 home runs allowed per nine innings is a telling sign of his potential struggles in the near future.

Over his last three starts, he’s yielded 25 hard-hit balls for a 49% hard-hit rate. Overall, his barrel rate allowed ranks in the 25th percentile.

If you buy into the notion that Rea’s production is due for a dip, Caesars Sportsbook and BetMGM Sportsbook have his earn-run prop set at 2.5, with the over at plus money. Under 17.5 outs recorded are priced in the same range.

Moreover, he’s let up a .250/.318/.459 slash line to left-handed batters. The switch-hitting Reynolds has provided more pop against righties, including a hefty .556/.556/.778 slash line versus Rea in nine plate appearances. The latter production stems from a small sample size, but it’s still worth mentioning.

The Brewers’ stadium ranks below league average in Statcast’s park factor, which was constructed to illustrate the impact of ballparks on HR-type distances. The geniuses behind this metric have accounted for all batted balls hit at 24 to 32 degrees, launched at 90+ mph before standardizing them to 28 degrees, 100mph, 74 degrees F, and 500 feet of elevation.

Nevertheless, American Family Field ranks No. 12 in total dingers this season. That shouldn’t be a surprise, considering Milwaukee’s lack of quality starting pitching combined with an offense tallying the eighth-most runs per game.

Tied for the 24th-most home runs this season (16), Reynolds is well-positioned to take Rea deep on Tuesday evening.

Pirates at Brewers Odds

Honorable Mention: Shohei Ohtani ()

Reynolds might be an under-the-radar dinger pick for novice bettors, but most are familiar with the odds-on National League MVP favorite.

His shortest odds in that market are . Granted, Ohtani will oppose Phillies ace Zack Wheeler, who’s favored to win the NL Cy Young at odds. The first of a three-game series in Philadelphia could be a preview of the NLCS.

I’m noting Ohtani’s +230 odds at FanDuel because they are +EV of roughly 5% without incorporating the Dinger Tuesday promo. Although long-term ROI is difficult to gauge for home run bets because the market average isn’t normally fair value, those odds warrant a discussion.

Dodgers at Phillies Odds

More MLB betting Odds

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