Home Run Bets: Tuesday MLB Picks & Dinger Promos For April 8
Baseball fans can scoop up bonus bets while sweating home run wagers every Tuesday throughout the season. Here, we'll review possible home run picks for April 8, evaluating some options. Remember that these evaluations can be applied to fantasy sports picks and MLB odds.
Last Tuesday, we hit on a dinger with Christian Yelich going yard to help Milwaukee pull out of its dreadful slump to start the season. Coors and a few games featuring high winds are on today's slate. We also have a wide range of weather forecasts on the slate.
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We'll provide a few home run bets each day this article runs. But keep in mind when perusing these that the situations apply to more than just the player named. You can use that logic with many players when targeting pitchers, bullpens, or homer-friendly conditions. For example, if we select Aaron Judge but you want a longer shot, you can easily bet on Anthony Volpe instead.
William Contreras
It will be a 70-degree day in Coors, which means the ball should be primed to fly out of the spacious park.
Kyle Freeland has been looking great so far. He has yet to issue a walk in two starts thus far. However, recent history tells us keeping the ball in the park is a challenge for Freeland. He served up 1.68 HR/9 and 1.75 HR/9 in the last two seasons.
Contrary to popular belief, Coors is much better for other types of extra-base hits rather than homers, but it still ranks as an above-average park for dingers. And William Contreras certainly has the muscle to send the ball out, having slugged around .500 over the past three seasons. He has been incredibly potent against lefties, with a career .539 SLG.
Contreras is off to a slow start (14 wRC+), but he's still showing good command of the strike zone. The batted balls will turn in his favor eventually.
Targeting the Rockies' dreadful pen is also helpful here.
Junior Caminero
Once the game's pre-eminent control and command artist, Kyle Hendricks has fallen on somewhat hard times of late. As his stuff continues to deteriorate, Hendricks has allowed 1.45 HR/9 or more in three of the past four seasons. That has directly coincided with three seasons of well below-average ERA.
Tampa Bay's new park is expected to be quite hitter-favored, and some warm weather should help the ball travel a bit farther.
Hendricks' best pitch is his changeup, so he strikes out more left-handed batters than right-handed ones. Caminero swings from the right side and has ferocious bat speed. So, if he can connect with one of Hendricks' soft tosses, he might be able to send it a mile.
Matt Shaw
Like Contreras, Shaw is off to a slow start, but he's controlling the zone well with a sky-high walk rate (17.6%) and a palatable K rate (23.5%). He does need to get more aggressive swinging in the zone, but that should come soon as he gets more familiar with MLB pitching and the MLB zone.
Power was Shaw's carrying tool as a prospect. Though he's yet to tap into it at the MLB level, he slugged .488 last year in the minors and .618 in the prior campaign.
The conditions don't look particularly homer-friendly in Wrigley, as a cold day (36 degrees) is forecast.
However, Patrick Corbin is one of the worst full-time starters in baseball, with projections not far from replacement level. He's been feeding hitters meatballs for four years, and that issue seems likely to worsen heading into his age-35 season.
Corbin is also very slider-heavy (34%), and Shaw has been elite against sliders in a small sample.
General Home Run Betting Strategies
Several factors will help point the way to games that may see higher home-run totals.
For one, look for ballparks with an above-average rate of home runs hit. Statcast's park factors can help. The linked table is also sortable by handedness via the filters. If you're targeting a particularly lefty- or righty-heavy lineup, sort by the home-fun factor for that handedness to get an even better idea of the home-run potential.
Targeting higher game totals will also help. Look for games with high over/unders — preferably at least 8.
While home runs allowed can be volatile, we can also look at pitcher home-run rates. Some pitchers have a true talent for suppressing or allowing more homers than average. Maybe they give up too many fly balls, which can lead to more home runs. Or opposing hitters barrel their pitches at a higher-than-normal rate due to poor command or fastball shape.
Finally, check the weather. Outfield winds and high temperatures can cause balls to fly further than normal, which means a higher chance of home runs. Conversely, cold weather and infield winds can kill fly balls.
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