Home Run Bets: Tuesday MLB Picks & Dinger Promos For April 15

Baseball fans can scoop up bonus bets while sweating home run wagers every Tuesday throughout the season. Here, we’ll review possible home run picks for April 15, evaluating some options. Remember that these evaluations can be applied to fantasy sports picks and MLB odds.

Last week, we nailed two of three with William Contreras and Junior Caminero going yard. This week, there are some crazy winds in play, with several parks having forecasts at 15 mph or even higher. We’ll see if we can successfully unearth some more dingers.

FanDuel Dinger Tuesday Promo

FanDuel Dinger Tuesdays are back — sort of. Unfortunately, FanDuel Sportsbook won’t be providing bonus bets this year.

Instead, this year, it’s opted to switch the promo — still under the name “Dinger Tuesday” — to award a 50% profit boost on any “To Hit A Home Run” wager. Parlay bets and same-game parlays are eligible if every bet is “To Hit A Home Run.”

DraftKings’ ‘No Sweat Home Run’ Promo

DraftKings Sportsbook offers a “no sweat home run” bet every day this baseball season.

Opt-in and apply your no-sweat token to an MLB home run bet. It can be a parlay, same-game parlay, or SGPx bet. If the bet that you apply your no sweat token to after opting in loses, you get a bonus bet returned to your account.

Promo value may vary by customer. Read all promotional terms and conditions before opting in and wagering.

Best Home Run Bets For April 15 MLB Promos

We’ll provide a few home run bets each day this article runs. But keep in mind when perusing these that the situations apply to more than just the player named. You can use that logic with many players when targeting pitchers, bullpens, or homer-friendly conditions. For example, if we select Aaron Judge but you want a longer shot, you can easily bet on Anthony Volpe instead.

Tyler Soderstrom

Rate Field isn’t a great venue for homers (95 park factor), and it will be a bit chilly (51 degrees), but the 18 mph outfield wind is calling me like a siren song.

Well, that and Chicago starter Sean Burke looks decidedly mediocre. His ERA estimators are … rough despite a relatively low average exit velocity. xERA tabs him for a horrific 9.01, and he didn’t exactly dominate in Triple-A last year (4.62 ERA). He’ll be backed by one of baseball’s worst bullpens as well.

Soderstrom looks locked in at the plate so far. He’s cut his strikeout rate and increased his walk rate. Power was his carrying tool as a prospect, and he’s blistering the ball so far with a .408 xwOBA, a 50% hard-hit rate, and a mammoth barrel rate north of 17%.

If he puts a charge into one, the wind won’t be needed.

Cody Bellinger

Bellinger is off to a cold start at the plate, nearly doubling his K% from the past couple of years when he … re-broke out? Re-established himself? Whatever the case, he hasn’t been at his best.

Still, I’m cautiously intrigued here as he’s in a dream situation for dingers. Lefties in Yankee Stadium enjoy a 124-park factor for dingers, and there’s a 20 mph wind howling out to boot. Bellinger’s extreme uppercut swing should be tailor-made for this situation, although a matchup with fly baller Michael Wacha may invite pop-ups.

If Bellinger can hit even a modestly struck fly ball, though, it will have a chance to go out in these conditions. He has longer odds than most of his Yankee brethren, so perhaps we’re getting a discount.

Julio Rodriguez

The pitching talent is quite good in this game, but it’s the No. 1 home-run park with a 15 mph outfield wind. We could see some cheap ones in Cincinnati today.

Rodriguez’s power will play up a bit away from the hit-suppressing environment he calls home, and he’s off to a nice start with a 55.8% hard-hit rate.

Nick Lodolo is good, but he isn’t going to pitch all nine (most likely), and Cincinnati’s pen is very weak without Alexis Diaz. The unit ranks in the bottom 10 in xFIP, SIERA, and K-BB%. Lodolo hasn’t traditionally offered a lot of length as a starter, so Rodriguez should find himself facing some pretty beatable pitching in a dinger-friendly environment.

General Home Run Betting Strategies

Several factors will help point the way to games that may see higher home-run totals.

For one, look for ballparks with an above-average rate of home runs hit. Statcast’s park factors can help. The linked table is also sortable by handedness via the filters.

If you’re targeting a particularly lefty- or righty-heavy lineup, sort by the home-fun factor for that handedness to get an even better idea of the home-run potential.

Targeting higher game totals will also help. Look for games with high over/unders — preferably at least 8.

While home runs allowed can be volatile, we can also look at pitcher home-run rates. Some pitchers have a true talent for suppressing or allowing more homers than average. Maybe they give up too many fly balls, which can lead to more home runs. Or opposing hitters barrel their pitches at a higher-than-normal rate due to poor command or fastball shape.

Finally, check the weather. Outfield winds and high temperatures can cause balls to fly further than usual, which means a higher chance of home runs. Conversely, cold weather and infield winds can kill fly balls.

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