Home Run Bets: Tuesday MLB Picks & FanDuel Dinger Promo For April 1
Baseball fans can scoop up bonus bets while sweating home run wagers every Tuesday throughout the season. Here, we'll review possible home run picks for April 1, evaluating some options. Remember that these evaluations can be applied to fantasy sports picks and MLB odds.
FanDuel Dinger Tuesday Promo
FanDuel Dinger Tuesdays are back — sort of. Unfortunately, FanDuel Sportsbook won't be providing bonus bets this year.
Instead, this year, it's opted to switch the promo — still under the name "Dinger Tuesday" — to award a 50% profit boost on any "To Hit A Home Run" wager. Parlay bets and same-game parlays are eligible if every bet is "To Hit A Home Run."
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DraftKings Sportsbook offers a "no sweat home run" bet every day this baseball season.
Opt in and apply your no sweat token to an MLB home run bet. It can be a parlay, same-game parlay, or SGPx bet. If the bet that you apply your no sweat token to after opting in loses, you get a bonus bet returned to your account.
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We'll provide a few home run bets each day this article runs. But keep in mind when perusing these that the situations apply to more than just the player named. You can use that logic with many players when targeting pitchers, bullpens, or homer-friendly conditions. For example, if we select Aaron Judge but want a longer shot, you can easily bet on Anthony Volpe instead.
Pavin Smith
Yankee Stadium is always a treat for left-handed bats, and Smith fits the bill there.
Opposing pitcher Will Warren has talent — he's ranked 62nd overall on FanGraphs' top 100 prospects. But he's struggled in a small sample in the majors. In 22.2 IP last year, he got rocked for 1.99 HR/9, producing an unsightly 10.32 ERA. Homers were also an issue in the minors, as Warren allowed 1.56/9 at Triple-A last year in 23 starts.
Even if Warren winds up solid, the long ball might be an issue. The projections expect around 1.2 HR/9.
The light may have come on for Smith last year. After three years of poor performance, he smashed the ball to the tune of a .395 xwOBA. Thus far, he has picked up where he left off with a scorching 102.7 mph average exit velocity. In a lineup full of boppers, he might be a sneaky value.
Christian Yelich
Homers haven't been the issue dragging Michael Lorenzen down, but he's still allowing too much hard contact. He was below average in barrel and hard-hit rates last season and is on the decline entering his age-33 season.
The Brewers have struggled mightily to an 0-4 start, but their offense should be in a decent spot here. Miller Park has the sixth-best home-run factor in the majors. And Lorenzen doesn't have a great bullpen backing him. We shouldn't expect a long outing here.
Milwaukee might finally get its offense cooking, and Yelich has pretty long odds. He has a 137 career wRC+ against right-handed pitching. Let's try to take advantage of the veteran hitter's health while he's upright.
Jonathan Aranda
Aranda looks set to be the everyday first baseman for the Rays. Hitting was his carrying tool as a prospect, and that should help his mediocre (for a corner bat) power play up in Tampa's new home. He's scalding the ball so far with a .530 xwOBA.
George M. Steinbrenner Field has been described as a possible home-run haven with the same dimensions as Yankee Stadium but in warmer conditions and a jet stream carrying the ball out to the right field. Lefties should have a field day this year, though we haven't seen any crazy scores. I'm hoping that's currently tamping down on the market numbers.
Thomas Harrington will make his MLB debut on the mound for Pittsburgh. He profiles as a back-end starter. I don't like this Pittsburgh bullpen at all. The middle relief looks weak, and does David Bednar have the yips right now?
General Home Run Betting Strategies
Several factors will help point the way to games that may see higher home-run totals.
For one, look for ballparks with an above-average rate of home runs hit. Statcast's park factors can help. The linked table is also sortable by handedness via the filters. If you're targeting a particularly lefty- or righty-heavy lineup, sort by the home-fun factor for that handedness to get an even better idea of the home-run potential.
Targeting higher game totals will also help. Look for games with high over/unders — preferably at least 8.
While home runs allowed can be volatile, we can also look at pitcher home-run rates. Some pitchers have a true talent for suppressing or allowing more homers than average. Maybe they give up too many fly balls, which can lead to more home runs. Or opposing hitters barrel their pitches at a higher-than-normal rate due to poor command or fastball shape.
Finally, check the weather. Outfield winds and high temperatures can lead to balls flying further than normal. This means a higher chance of home runs. Conversely, of course, cold weather and infield winds can kill the flight of fly balls.
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