Home Run Bets: Mo’s FanDuel Dinger Tuesday Promos & Picks For May 7

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Written By Mo Nuwwarah | Last Updated
home run bets

FanDuel’s Dinger Tuesday promo is back. Baseball fans can scoop up bonus bets while sweating home run wagers every Tuesday throughout the season. Here, we’ll go over possible home run picks for Dinger Tuesday on May 7, evaluating some of the options. Keep in mind these evaluations can be applied to fantasy sports picks in addition to MLB odds.

Last week, we … hit it out of the park with two of three home run bet picks smashing dingers. Josh Naylor went yard, as did Juan Soto. Bettors who selected Naylor were especially happy since that game featured six dingers in a 10-9 slugfest. At first glance, this week’s slate doesn’t look that appetizing for dingers. A lot of the more homer-prone pitchers are facing strong opposing arms and/or in low-homer parks. We’ll see what we can find, though.

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FanDuel Dinger Tuesday Promo

For those unfamiliar, we’ll provide a quick refresher on this popular FanDuel promo.

The premise is simple: bet $25 or more on any player’s “To Hit a Home Run” market on FanDuel. Regardless of the bet’s outcome, FanDuel will award your account with a $5 bonus bet for each home run hit in that game by either team. Players must opt-in, and bonus bets expire after seven days.

Mo’s Favorite Home Run Bets For Dinger Tuesday (May 7)

Below are my top three options for Dinger Tuesday on May 7, highlighting a few options that might make sense as home run bets.

Astros At Yankees

The pitchers aren’t particularly attractive fades in this game. Justin Verlander and Luis Gil have both prevented home runs at an above-average rate.

However, the situation does look fairly enticing. This game matches two high-powered offenses in the third-best park for home runs, one that produces high rates of dingers for batters of either handedness. Despite the offenses getting off to slower-than-expected starts in the power department, the Astros rank seventh in home runs, and the Yankees rank fourth. Both teams should easily land in the top 10 in slugging by the end of the season.

Possible home run bet: Lefties get the biggest bump in Yankee Stadium. Let’s go with Kyle Tucker (). He’s swinging a hot bat after homering four times in the team’s past eight games. Few are making better contact than he is, as shown by his .422 xwOBA. He’s also doing a great job lifting the baseball, with the lowest GB% of his career by far.

Padres At Cubs

This is an interesting one because it features Japanese sensation Shota Imanaga on the mound for the Cubs. He’s been untouchable so far, allowing 2 HRs en route to a 0.78 ERA. That alone might take this out of consideration. To top it off, the Padres stink at hitting lefties.

On the other hand, it looks like the wind will be blowing out at Wrigley. Early forecasts have 13 mph gusts heading to the outfield, and these games generally produce very high totals (though there isn’t a line yet as of this writing). Outfield winds in Wrigley pretty much turn the stadium into a Triple-A bandbox. All home run bettors need is one or two lazy flies that Imanaga induces to find their way out.

Visiting pitcher Randy Vasquez is also no stranger to watching opposing batters make the slow trot. He’s been pretty homer-prone with a 1.39 HR/9 in his career.

The Cubs bullpen has also struggled, so whatever innings Imanaga doesn’t cover could clear things up for the Padres to launch. Homers haven’t necessarily been the root of the issue, but the unit hasn’t rated well in overall run prevention, ranking in the bottom 10 in ERA.

Possible home run bet: Lefties have had their way with Vasquez in his brief career. The sample’s far too small to be sure it means anything, but handedness splits are often an issue for Quad-A types. We’ll roll with Mike Tauchman (), who is low-key swinging one of the hottest bats in MLB. He seems to be focusing on lifting the ball as well, with the highest FB% and launch angle of his career.

Giants At Rockies

Dakota Hudson is an expert at keeping the ball on the ground, but he’s still a bad pitcher operating in an offensive haven here. He’s unlikely to go more than 5 IP, leaving four innings of work for a weak Rockies bullpen against a Giants offense that has admittedly been stuck in neutral.

Kyle Harrison has been pretty good so far, but long flies have been an issue. That will tend to happen when you throw a fastball two-thirds of the time. He’s allowed 1.61 HR/9.

It would be nice if the wind was blowing out or the weather was a bit warmer. The total is quite low for Coors, but the pickings for home runs bets are pretty slim on this slate.

Possible home run bet: We’ll try Jorge Soler. The wayward slugger has joined the rest of this San Francisco offense in getting off to a sluggish start. But he still has gobs of power, and right-handed thump plays up a little more in Coors.

General Home Run Bets Strategies For Dinger Tuesdays

Several factors will help point the way to games that may see higher home-run totals.

For one, look for ballparks with an above-average rate of home runs hit. Statcast’s park factors can help. The linked table is also sortable by handedness via the filters. So, if you’re targeting a particularly lefty or righty-heavy lineup, sort by the home-fun factor for that handedness to get an even better idea of the home-run potential.

Targeting higher game totals will help as well. Look for games with over/unders, preferably more than 8, at least.

While home runs allowed can be a volatile stat, we can also look at pitcher home-run rates. Some pitchers have a true talent for suppressing or allowing more homers than average. Maybe they give up too many fly balls, which can lead to more home runs. Or opposing hitters barrel their pitches at a higher-than-normal rate due to poor command or fastball shape.

Finally, check the weather. Outfield winds and high temperatures can lead to balls flying further than normal. This means a higher chance of home runs. Conversely, of course, cold weather and infield winds will kill the flight of fly balls.

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