Home Run Bets: Mo’s FanDuel Dinger Tuesday Promos & Picks For May 21

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Written By Mo Nuwwarah | Last Updated
Home run bets

FanDuel’s Dinger Tuesday promo is back. Baseball fans can scoop up bonus bets while sweating home run wagers every Tuesday throughout the season. Here, we’ll go over possible home run picks for Dinger Tuesday on May 21, evaluating some of the options. Keep in mind these evaluations can be applied to fantasy sports picks in addition to MLB odds.

Josh Naylor is becoming quite the dinger hero for us. He blasted one for the second time in three weeks, making it three straight weeks overall we’ve found a winner on Dinger Tuesday. Better yet, since the Rangers went yard three times themselves, that made for a nice little bundle of promo dollars. The pitching for this week isn’t too terribly inspiring outside of a few guys like Logan Webb and Ranger Suarez. Keep an eye on the weather, though, with strong winds in several forecasts.

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FanDuel Dinger Tuesday Promo

For those unfamiliar, we’ll provide a quick refresher on this popular FanDuel promo.

The premise is simple: bet $25 or more on any player’s “To Hit a Home Run” market on FanDuel. Regardless of the bet’s outcome, FanDuel will award your account with a $5 bonus bet for each home run hit in that game by either team. Players must opt-in, and bonus bets expire after seven days.

Mo’s Favorite Home Run Bets For Dinger Tuesday (May 21)

Below are my top three options for Dinger Tuesday on May 21, highlighting a few options that might make sense as home run bets.

Braves At Cubs

Javier Assad and Charlie Morton have been good in general and great at avoiding giving up dingers. Yet, this is probably the most attractive game on the slate for home run bets. Why? Because of the wind.

The total keeps climbing, reaching double digits now that it looks nearly certain the wind will be howling out to left (25 mph) at Wrigley Field. That creates conditions extremely ripe for long flies. Wrigley plays similarly to Coors when these conditions hit, and we’ve seen some very high-scoring games in recent years.

Due to the wind’s direction, right-handed batters should get the biggest bump.

Possible home run bet: Marcell Ozuna (). Atlanta is experiencing a bit of a bizarre power outage, ranking just 17th in homers. It isn’t Ozuna’s fault, though, as he just keeps crushing the ball. I prefer to take a Brave here to target the Cubs pen as well, as that unit has been kicked around a bit this season and ranks below average in almost every metric.

Angels At Astros

No help from the wind here, but the batters could supply enough power to make up for it. Both the Angels and Astros rank in the top seven in home runs, as well as the top nine in slugging.

Sure, Mike Trout supplied a lot of that thump for L.A., but the offense has been surprisingly powerful even without him. They rank fourth in both home runs and slugging in May.

Griffin Canning is still struggling with the long ball, although he is finally creeping up on his velocity. Still, a red-hot Astros offense figures to have a decent chance to take him deep.

More interesting might be a fade of Cristian Javier. He’s one of the most extreme fly-ballers in the league (27.9 GB%), although he’s been better this year at preventing those from leaving the yard. That wasn’t the case last season, though, when he allowed 1.39 HR/9. A velocity dip to 92.8 had him in shambles, and he’s actually down below 92 now since returning from injury, a major warning sign.

Possible home run bet: Javier is significantly weaker against lefties. Perhaps Willie Calhoun () can continue his hot start. He’s been smashing the ball (.378 xwOBA), but you’ll have to wait on this one and make sure he’s in the lineup. The Angels have been very unpredictable in that department.

Diamondbacks At Dodgers

Brandon Pfaadt and Gavin Stone don’t look like especially good pitchers to target here. Whether due to a new ball, colder weather, or just better performance, they’ve both allowed a much lower rate of dingers in 2024 than in 2023.

At the same time, other factors look well set up for offense here.

The Dodgers have the second-highest home-run factor, and the wind is blowing toward the outfield at 10 mph.

Additionally, the offenses here have plenty of punch. The Dodgers shouldn’t need much of a sales pitch. They’ve been the second-most powerful offense so far, behind only Baltimore. Arizona started off quite slowly, but they’re slowly rounding into form. They’re up to 10th in wRC+ while ranking a respectable 12th in SLG.

Neither of these pens is especially strong either. Arizona’s pen has really struggled, ranking 26th in ERA while allowing 19 home runs, the 13th-most.

Possible home run bet: We’d better target a Dodger to get the additional boost from facing the Diamondbacks’ relief.
Freddie Freeman () looks like he’s in a decent spot here, and he provides a better payout than the two monster batting in front of him.

General Home Run Bets Strategies For Dinger Tuesdays

Several factors will help point the way to games that may see higher home-run totals.

For one, look for ballparks with an above-average rate of home runs hit. Statcast’s park factors can help. The linked table is also sortable by handedness via the filters. So, if you’re targeting a particularly lefty or righty-heavy lineup, sort by the home-fun factor for that handedness to get an even better idea of the home-run potential.

Targeting higher game totals will help as well. Look for games with over/unders, preferably more than 8, at least.

While home runs allowed can be a volatile stat, we can also look at pitcher home-run rates. Some pitchers have a true talent for suppressing or allowing more homers than average. Maybe they give up too many fly balls, which can lead to more home runs. Or opposing hitters barrel their pitches at a higher-than-normal rate due to poor command or fastball shape.

Finally, check the weather. Outfield winds and high temperatures can lead to balls flying further than normal. This means a higher chance of home runs. Conversely, of course, cold weather and infield winds will kill the flight of fly balls.

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