Home Run Bets: Mo’s FanDuel Dinger Tuesday Promos & Picks For May 14

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Written By Mo Nuwwarah | Last Updated
home run bets

FanDuel’s Dinger Tuesday promo is back. Baseball fans can scoop up bonus bets while sweating home run wagers every Tuesday throughout the season. Here, we’ll go over possible home run picks for Dinger Tuesday on May 14, evaluating some of the options. Keep in mind these evaluations can be applied to fantasy sports picks in addition to MLB odds.

We made it two weeks in a row with a dinger hit last week. The Astros didn’t muster a lot of offense, but Kyle Tucker’s blast got us home. This week, we’ve got more cold and rainy weather to deal with, and there are a handful of aces on the slate. But we’ll see if we can make it three weeks in a row with successful home run bets.

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FanDuel Dinger Tuesday Promo

For those unfamiliar, we’ll provide a quick refresher on this popular FanDuel promo.

The premise is simple: bet $25 or more on any player’s “To Hit a Home Run” market on FanDuel. Regardless of the bet’s outcome, FanDuel will award your account with a $5 bonus bet for each home run hit in that game by either team. Players must opt-in, and bonus bets expire after seven days.

Mo’s Favorite Home Run Bets For Dinger Tuesday (May 14)

Below are my top three options for Dinger Tuesday on May 14, highlighting a few options that might make sense as home run bets.

Guardians At Rangers

Texas’ home stadium nowadays might not be as offense-crazy as its old one, but it still lands seventh in home run factor.

It’s fair to say Texas’ offense has been disappointing so far, but there’s still power here. And Ben Lively, while he has limited the long ball so far, was horrific in that department in 2023 (2.03 HR/9). Considering he sits 90.2 on his average fastball velocity and has a fly ball lean, home runs will likely always be an issue.

Top prospect Jack Leiter looks like he will get another start for Texas. The young hurler has a bit of a command issue to iron out, and that has manifested in some gaudy home run totals. He has allowed in excess of 1.54 HR/9 at every MiLB stop dating to last season, and hard aerial contact has been a major issue in his tiny MLB sample. Opponents are barreling a staggering 15.2% of batted balls.

Cleveland is hitting for much more power this year, although it remains to be seen if this is a small sample fluke.

Possible home run bet: Let’s try Josh Naylor () again. Though Texas has some big bats, this option lets us target the Rangers bullpen as well. They’ve been a rough watch in general and land 21st in opposing HR/9.

Pirates At Brewers

Quinn Priester has just been a disaster as an MLB pitcher so far. His minor-league success (and scouts’ high opinions) simply hasn’t translated into success at the big-league level.

The biggest issue has probably been the walks, but hard contact lands a close second. xERA has Priester “deserving” a 5.67 mark this year after he landed north of 6 last year. The home run numbers have been borderline comical. Surely, there’s some bad luck involved (it’s hard to run a nearly 30 HR/FB%), but 2.28 per 9 is eye-opening stuff.

Particularly with Priester pitching his home games in PNC Park. American Family Field doesn’t look very welcoming for him, considering it has the No. 8 home run factor. Milwaukee has shown a surprising amount of pop so far, with the fourth-best SLG.

I’m less optimistic about a weak Pirates offense. But Joe Ross at least gave up his share of long flies with 1.42 HR/9 last season.

Possible home run bet: Christian Yelich (). It’s tempting to go with William Contreras, the most powerful hitter on the team. But it’s hard to ignore how thoroughly lefties are demolishing Priester. He has an 8.65 FIP when pitching to them with 2.97 HR/9. Yikes.

Yankees At Twins

I don’t love targeting these bullpens, but the starting pitchers and offenses involved make this one worth considering.

Minnesota and New York are two of the top seven offenses by SLG. Minnesota has been especially hot for the past month. Over that time frame, they land fourth in wRC+, with the Yanks not far behind in fifth.

I’ve documented Chris Paddack’s home run issues before. While he’s having a decent season, 1.45 HR/9 is still a bit rough, especially with the deader ball this year.

Carlos Rodon is working on his second straight campaign of poor HR prevention. Last year, he allowed a whopping 2.1 per 9. It’s gotten better in 2024, but 1.47 still isn’t great. Throwing fastballs 55% of the time to an offense that ranks No. 1 in attacking four-seamers also doesn’t bode well.

Possible home run bet: Aaron Judge (). Paddack actually allows slightly more dingers when facing same-handed batters, which makes some sense since his best pitch is his changeup. He’s always struggled to get a feel for breaking stuff. Judge crushes changeups and fastballs, which are the staples of Paddack’s repertoire.

General Home Run Bets Strategies For Dinger Tuesdays

Several factors will help point the way to games that may see higher home-run totals.

For one, look for ballparks with an above-average rate of home runs hit. Statcast’s park factors can help. The linked table is also sortable by handedness via the filters. So, if you’re targeting a particularly lefty or righty-heavy lineup, sort by the home-fun factor for that handedness to get an even better idea of the home-run potential.

Targeting higher game totals will help as well. Look for games with over/unders, preferably more than 8, at least.

While home runs allowed can be a volatile stat, we can also look at pitcher home-run rates. Some pitchers have a true talent for suppressing or allowing more homers than average. Maybe they give up too many fly balls, which can lead to more home runs. Or opposing hitters barrel their pitches at a higher-than-normal rate due to poor command or fastball shape.

Finally, check the weather. Outfield winds and high temperatures can lead to balls flying further than normal. This means a higher chance of home runs. Conversely, of course, cold weather and infield winds will kill the flight of fly balls.

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