Home Run Bets: Mo’s FanDuel Dinger Tuesday Promos & Picks For June 25

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Written By Mo Nuwwarah | Last Updated
home run bets

FanDuel’s Dinger Tuesday promo is back. Baseball fans can scoop up bonus bets while sweating home run wagers every Tuesday throughout the season. Here, we’ll go over possible home run picks for Dinger Tuesday on June 25, evaluating some of the options. Keep in mind these evaluations can be applied to fantasy sports picks in addition to MLB odds.

Last week, I nailed two of my three dinger picks with Christian Yelich and Teoscar Hernandez each going yard. The latter was … somewhat impactful (and controversial). And if you went with Hernandez, you scooped $30 in bonus bets thanks to a Coors dinger-fest. That will be tough to top today, but we’ll see if we can find more gold.

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FanDuel Dinger Tuesday Promo

For those unfamiliar, we’ll provide a quick refresher on this popular FanDuel promo.

The premise is simple: bet $25 or more on any player’s “To Hit a Home Run” market on FanDuel. Regardless of the bet’s outcome, FanDuel will award your account with a $5 bonus bet for each home run hit in that game by either team. Players must opt-in, and bonus bets expire after seven days.

Mo’s Favorite Home Run Bets For Dinger Tuesday (June 25)

Below are my top three options for Dinger Tuesday on June 25, highlighting a few options that might make sense as home run bets.

Rangers At Brewers

Andrew Heaney and Bryse Wilson have both long been prone to allowing deep flies. And they’re pitching in American Family Field, the fifth-best park for dingers over the past three years.

Heaney, for his part, has actually improved in this department. However, that improvement still looks like 1.36 HR/9, with a career number of 1.57. Wilson has enjoyed a surprisingly decent season, but the long ball remains an issue. He’s allowing 1.59 HR/9, just a hair worse than his career 1.5 mark.

The power here is middling, but it sure seems like Texas should be primed for a breakout at some point. This is basically the same lineup that terrorized the AL en route to a world championship last season.

Possible home run bet: Few, if any, players have been more unlucky than Corey Seager (). I’d prefer to target the weaker Texas bullpen, but it’s hard to ignore how hard Seager is hitting the ball and how little he has to show for it. He has a scorching .382 xwOBA and looks due for launch.

Guardians At Orioles

The strength of these bullpens makes me nervous, but I hate what I’ve seen from Logan Allen so far. The young lefty followed up a promising debut campaign with a stinker so far in 2024. His fastball command has been scattershot, which is a real problem when you’re throwing 91 in the majors.

As a result, his HR/9 has rocketed from 1.15 to 1.78, and it looks deserved, with Statcast dinging him for a 5.5 xERA.

Facing an Orioles team at the top of basically every power metric, that doesn’t look particularly likely to improve.

Cole Irvin has done better limiting opposing dingers, but he’s still not what one would call a great pitcher. It would hardly count as a surprise if the Guardians took him deep once or twice. They’ve hit a surprisingly robust 117 wRC+ against southpaws. That’s been a problem area in the past.

Hitters will get a little boost with a 9 mph wind, too.

Possible home run bet: Thanks to facing a lefty, we can get a whale of a price on Gunnar Henderson today (). Henderson was terrible against lefties last year, but he has cleaned up his splits a lot. While his .357 BABIP isn’t sustainable there, he has a lot of room to fall from a 165 wRC+ and still hold some value at a price like that.

Dodgers At White Sox

More of a one-way play here, but there aren’t enough attractive dinger spots on the board for me to steer totally clear of recommending a Dodgers game yet again.

Chris Flexen is terrible, projecting around replacement level, and he allowed more than 2 HR/9 last year.

On the one hand, the Dodgers lineup is getting thin, missing Mookie Betts, Max Muncy, and possibly Teoscar Hernandez. On the other hand, does it matter? They’ve scored more than 6 runs per game since losing Betts. Granted, they played the Rockies in Colorado and the White Sox. Still, they don’t seem to be slowing down.

And while the White Sox don’t rate to score much on Bobby Miller, it’s possible they could do some damage in the aftermath of a short outing. Miller’s returning from injury, so we could see some extended run for the middle relief. And it’s also always possible Miller doesn’t land back on his feet.

Plus, any time the White Sox bullpen is involved, potential for launch exists. They’ve been throwing BP for weeks and are rocking a 4.72 ERA.

Possible home run bet: Shohei Ohtani has been white-hot of late. But he has comically short odds. Flexen has a reverse split over a pretty sample, so let’s try Will Smith ().

General Home Run Bets Strategies For Dinger Tuesdays

Several factors will help point the way to games that may see higher home-run totals.

For one, look for ballparks with an above-average rate of home runs hit. Statcast’s park factors can help. The linked table is also sortable by handedness via the filters. So, if you’re targeting a particularly lefty or righty-heavy lineup, sort by the home-fun factor for that handedness to get an even better idea of the home-run potential.

Targeting higher game totals will help as well. Look for games with over/unders, preferably more than 8, at least.

While home runs allowed can be a volatile stat, we can also look at pitcher home-run rates. Some pitchers have a true talent for suppressing or allowing more homers than average. Maybe they give up too many fly balls, which can lead to more home runs. Or opposing hitters barrel their pitches at a higher-than-normal rate due to poor command or fastball shape.

Finally, check the weather. Outfield winds and high temperatures can lead to balls flying further than normal. This means a higher chance of home runs. Conversely, of course, cold weather and infield winds will kill the flight of fly balls.

MLB betting Odds

Photo by Associated Press

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