Home Run Bets: Mo’s FanDuel Dinger Tuesday Promos & Picks For June 18

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Written By Mo Nuwwarah | Last Updated
home run bets

FanDuel’s Dinger Tuesday promo is back. Baseball fans can scoop up bonus bets while sweating home run wagers every Tuesday throughout the season. Here, we’ll go over possible home run picks for Dinger Tuesday on June 18, evaluating some of the options. Keep in mind these evaluations can be applied to fantasy sports picks in addition to MLB odds.

Anyone who tailed last week’s Freddie Freeman pick hit the jackpot. Not only did Freeman go yard, but there were six dingers hit in the game for a fistful of free bets. This week, there are a few games with strong outfield winds and only a handful of aces on the slate, so we should see some dingers.

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FanDuel Dinger Tuesday Promo

For those unfamiliar, we’ll provide a quick refresher on this popular FanDuel promo.

The premise is simple: bet $25 or more on any player’s “To Hit a Home Run” market on FanDuel. Regardless of the bet’s outcome, FanDuel will award your account with a $5 bonus bet for each home run hit in that game by either team. Players must opt-in, and bonus bets expire after seven days.

Mo’s Favorite Home Run Bets For Dinger Tuesday (June 18)

Below are my top three options for Dinger Tuesday on June 18, highlighting a few options that might make sense as home run bets.

Brewers At Angels

Angels Stadium has been the sixth-best for home runs, which is bad news for these two arms.

Griffin Canning’s velocity has been slowly trending up, but he can’t seem to recapture last year’s magic. His 13 home runs are one off the league “lead,” and he’s allowed seven in his past six starts. The long ball has been a problem in his entire career, as he’s never had a season better than 1.28 HR/9.

The Angels pen has been one of the league’s worst as well.

Opposing starter Tobias Myers has been even worse than Canning so far. His 1.77 HR/9 probably isn’t much of a fluke. Opponents launched 1.96 HR/9 off him at Double-A last season.

Hitters will get a boost from the 9 mph outfield wind as well.

Possible home run bet: Christian Yelich (). Willy Adames makes some sense, too, as he’s had a reverse split over his career. But Canning has a 4.78 xFIP against lefties in his career, and Yelich has a .494 SLG, although his expected stats say he’s been quite lucky.

Dodgers At Rockies

They aren’t the Dodgers of yestermonth, ranking “only” fifth in wRC+, whereas they lead the league for the season. But they still have some boppers in Shohei Ohtani, Will Smith, Freddie Freeman, and Teoscar Hernandez. And they’re in Coors facing Austin Gomber and his 1.55 HR/9.

And any innings Gomber doesn’t cover will come from this dreadful Rockies pen. Sure, Coors inflates their numbers, but one can simply use park-adjusted factors and see how bad they are. By all three of ERA-, FIP-, and xFIP-, the Rockies rank in the bottom five. Their xFIP- is MLB’s worst.

And has Walker Buehler lost his contact suppression magic after years lost to injury? He’s allowing a hideous 2.18 HR/9. His mammoth 22.9 HR/FB% says bad luck, but his 4.59 xERA says the other shoe may be dropping.

Possible home run bet: Teoscar Hernandez (). I keep trying him, and he keeps not coming through, but I’m not going to quit. The man slugs .563 against lefties in his career. Back on the Teoscar horse.

Orioles At Yankees

The sheer amount of power these teams bring to the table makes this worthy of consideration regardless of the pitching. These two teams are first and second in isolated power, first and second in home runs, and first and third in SLG (Orioles first in all three). Especially with the Dodgers lineup ravaged by injury, it would be impossible to match two more powerful offenses this year.

Orioles starter Albert Suarez might have a true talent for suppressing home runs, but even if he does, he’s due for some major regression. A 0.2 HR/9 and 1.8 HR/FB% won’t stick. And at the end of the day, he’s still a journeyman who just returned from a multi-year stint in Korea at age 34. It’s very likely he’s overperforming his talent level.

Nestor Cortes looks like he’s back, but the homers have still been a bit of an issue. He’s following up last year’s 1.56 HR/9 with 1.23 HR/9.

And the Orioles hit lefties better than anyone besides the Dodgers. Even L.A. lags behind the Os’ SLG and ISO against lefties, though. They rank first in both splits.

Add in Yankee Stadium (fourth-highest home run factor), and there’s a recipe for plenty of dingers here.

Possible home run bet: Aaron Judge (). He does an insane amount of damage on fastballs, and Suarez throws fastballs more than half the time. He also gets to face a slightly more vulnerable Orioles pen.

General Home Run Bets Strategies For Dinger Tuesdays

Several factors will help point the way to games that may see higher home-run totals.

For one, look for ballparks with an above-average rate of home runs hit. Statcast’s park factors can help. The linked table is also sortable by handedness via the filters. So, if you’re targeting a particularly lefty or righty-heavy lineup, sort by the home-fun factor for that handedness to get an even better idea of the home-run potential.

Targeting higher game totals will help as well. Look for games with over/unders, preferably more than 8, at least.

While home runs allowed can be a volatile stat, we can also look at pitcher home-run rates. Some pitchers have a true talent for suppressing or allowing more homers than average. Maybe they give up too many fly balls, which can lead to more home runs. Or opposing hitters barrel their pitches at a higher-than-normal rate due to poor command or fastball shape.

Finally, check the weather. Outfield winds and high temperatures can lead to balls flying further than normal. This means a higher chance of home runs. Conversely, of course, cold weather and infield winds will kill the flight of fly balls.

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