Home Run Bets: Mo’s FanDuel Dinger Tuesday Promos & Picks For June 11

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Written By Mo Nuwwarah | Last Updated
home run bets

FanDuel’s Dinger Tuesday promo is back. Baseball fans can scoop up bonus bets while sweating home run wagers every Tuesday throughout the season. Here, we’ll go over possible home run picks for Dinger Tuesday on June 11, evaluating some of the options. Keep in mind these evaluations can be applied to fantasy sports picks in addition to MLB odds.

We’ve taken a few weeks off the dinger grind in this space as I went on vacation. The weather isn’t going to help much today, with the slate featuring largely modest temperatures and light winds. There are also a few aces going, including Max Fried and Zack Wheeler.

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FanDuel Dinger Tuesday Promo

For those unfamiliar, we’ll provide a quick refresher on this popular FanDuel promo.

The premise is simple: bet $25 or more on any player’s “To Hit a Home Run” market on FanDuel. Regardless of the bet’s outcome, FanDuel will award your account with a $5 bonus bet for each home run hit in that game by either team. Players must opt-in, and bonus bets expire after seven days.

Mo’s Favorite Home Run Bets For Dinger Tuesday (June 11)

Below are my top three options for Dinger Tuesday on June 11, highlighting a few options that might make sense as home run bets.

Angels At Diamondbacks

We’ll start with a bit of an odd one, as Chase Field has been a pitchers’ haven since the humidors came along and ranks among the most difficult parks in which to hit a home run.

However, it’s hard to ignore just how homer-prone these two pitchers have been.

The struggles of Reid Detmers have forced Jose Suarez back into the rotation. He pitched his way to bullpen duty partially due to a hideous 2.67 HR/9 last season. His career mark is obviously better but still quite bad at 1.59.

Meanwhile, Jordan Montgomery can’t seem to shake off his strange offseason. He has yet to get his fastball velocity near last year’s number. Though batters haven’t victimized him with the long ball, he’s getting knocked around to the tune of an ERA north of 6.

Crucially, both offenses hit lefties far harder than righties. Both rank in the top seven in wRC+ with that split.

Helpfully, neither bullpen has covered itself in glory either. Both rank in the bottom half of the league by both ERA and HR/9, the Angels being among MLB’s worst in both categories.

Possible home run bet: Ketel Marte (). Targeting Suarez and the Angels pen seems more attractive here, and Marte has demolished lefties in his career. The switch-hitter sports a career .532 SLG against them.

Rangers At Dodgers

The second-best park for home runs and a thumping top of the Dodgers order always make for an attractive combination. Just don’t ask about those 6-9 hitters.

In any case, Dane Dunning has given up plenty of deep flies this year, clocking in at 1.78 HR/9. He doesn’t figure to pitch deep into the game and will be backed by one of the weaker bullpens in MLB. Best of luck against Shohei Ohtani and Co., Dane. Those boppers will have an 8 mph wind at their backs as well.

Dodgers starter James Paxton has been pretty terrible so far, although he has kept the ball in the yard at an acceptable rate. Still, his peripherals make him look like a ticking time bomb. He averages fewer than 5 IP per start, so the vulnerable middle relief crew might be mopping up some innings.

The question for bettors is whether Texas’ struggles against southpaws are a real concern. They’ve been poor there this year, ranking 23rd with a 93 wRC+. The baffling part is they were elite in that department en route to last year’s title, ranking fifth at 115.

Possible home run bet: With Shohei Ohtani in a slump, let’s try Freddie Freeman (). He’s been hammering the ball per usual with a 40 HardHit%, though with little of the glory thanks to the excellence of the two men batting in front of him.

Guardians At Reds

Situationally, this game might have the best look of the bunch. Cincinnati is the top home-run park these days, and this game features a couple of pitchers who have been vulnerable to the long ball.

Nick Martinez has done well to avoid the bombs since coming back from overseas, but that’s mostly due to his strong work in relief. He’s at 1.46 HR/9 for his career as a starter, which includes 1.2 HR/9 since his return to MLB.

With his elbow in tatters, Triston McKenzie has had a rough go of it this year. His ERA looks fine, but his peripheral numbers and estimators, such as xERA (4.95), do not. A whopping 2.01 HR/9 and an 11.4% barrel rate stick out.

Both lineups are also getting healthier. Cleveland recently got Steven Kwan back from injury, and the Reds got TJ Friedl, among others.

Possible home run bet: Almost all of Elly De La Cruz’s power comes from the left side of the dish (.474 SLG, .289 as a RHB). That’s where he’ll be swinging against the extremely homer-prone McKenzie, so let’s go with the hard-swinging young phenom ().

General Home Run Bets Strategies For Dinger Tuesdays

Several factors will help point the way to games that may see higher home-run totals.

For one, look for ballparks with an above-average rate of home runs hit. Statcast’s park factors can help. The linked table is also sortable by handedness via the filters. So, if you’re targeting a particularly lefty or righty-heavy lineup, sort by the home-fun factor for that handedness to get an even better idea of the home-run potential.

Targeting higher game totals will help as well. Look for games with over/unders, preferably more than 8, at least.

While home runs allowed can be a volatile stat, we can also look at pitcher home-run rates. Some pitchers have a true talent for suppressing or allowing more homers than average. Maybe they give up too many fly balls, which can lead to more home runs. Or opposing hitters barrel their pitches at a higher-than-normal rate due to poor command or fastball shape.

Finally, check the weather. Outfield winds and high temperatures can lead to balls flying further than normal. This means a higher chance of home runs. Conversely, of course, cold weather and infield winds will kill the flight of fly balls.

MLB betting Odds

Photo by Associated Press

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