Home Run Bets: Mo’s FanDuel Dinger Tuesday Promos & Picks For July 23

FanDuel’s Dinger Tuesday promo is back. Plus, a new and very strong home run props promo at DraftKings Sportsbook. Baseball fans can scoop up bonus bets while sweating home run wagers every Tuesday throughout the season. Here, we’ll go over possible home run picks for Dinger Tuesday on July 23, evaluating some of the options. Keep in mind these evaluations can be applied to fantasy sports picks in addition to MLB odds.

It’s been awhile since we had a Tuesday slate covered here, between my vacation and the All-Star break. Last time out, I did manageto hit an unexciting one with Aaron Judge going yard on a dinger-light day. We’ll see if we can dig up something a little tastier here as MLB returns to its regularly scheduled grind.

Check out the latest FanDuel Sportsbook Promo Code below to get a new-user offer for today’s Dinger Tuesday slate.

FanDuel Dinger Tuesday Promo

For those unfamiliar, we’ll provide a quick refresher on this popular FanDuel promo.

The premise is simple: bet $25 or more on any player’s “To Hit a Home Run” market on FanDuel. Regardless of the bet’s outcome, FanDuel will award your account with a $5 bonus bet for each home run hit in that game by either team. Players must opt-in, and bonus bets expire after seven days.

DraftKings Homerfest Promo

DraftKings Sportsbook is looking to get in the home run bet promo mix. They’ve added a Homerfest promo.

It’s similar to Dinger Tuesday, except it applies to all home runs hit today. Opt-in, then make a qualifying home run bet ($20 or more, odds of +100 or longer). You’ll earn $1 in bonus bets for every home run hit on Tuesday.

Promo value may vary by customer. Read all promotional terms and conditions before opting in and wagering.

Mo’s Favorite Home Run Bets For Dinger Tuesday, Homerfest (July 23)

Below are my top three options for Dinger Tuesday on July 23, highlighting a few options that might make sense as home run bets.

Red Sox At Rockies

Coors has the highest total of the day, and there are definitely some attractive things about this matchup from a homer standpoint.

Rockies starter Ty Blach is just a replacement-level thrower of batting practice. It pains me to slag an Omaha guy, but the numbers don’t lie. Blach was quite good at limiting the long ball when he pitched in San Francisco, but Coors has been considerably less kind. He’s at 1.52 HR/9 this year after 1.73 HR/9 last year.

Needless to say, the awful Rockies pen doesn’t figure to do much better.

I’m concerned that Colorado won’t contribute much here, specifically with Ryan McMahon and Elias Diaz possibly sidelined. Cooper Criswell is pretty good at inducing soft contact too.

However, the Red Sox bullpen looks quite vulnerable. They’re missing top two arms Kenley Jansen and Chris Martin, and the Dodgers took advantage last series by shelling this group.

Possible home run bet: Let’s gun for a big payout on Connor Wong (). The Red Sox catcher is enjoying a nice season, and while he doesn’t have a history of crushing lefties, perhaps his new swing is more geared to punish them. He’s slugging .495 against them on the season with a gaudy 153 wRC+.

Rays At Blue Jays

This matchup has a delightful combination of homer-prone pitchers and terrible bullpens.

Tyler Alexander is having a year to forget in his first season with the Rays. He has a 6.19 ERA, though many of his peripherals says he deserves better. His 2.06 HR/9 allowed is an eye-opener. While that undoubtedly reflects some bad luck, it’s actually not that much higher than the 1.63 he has in nearly 400 career IP.

Given the subpar stuff Alexander works with — his fastball clocks in at 89.3 mph this year — it’s no surprise opposing batters can square him up frequently.

Jose Berrios has allowed some thump as well, with a 1.59 HR/9. It’s his second season in the past three checking in north of 1.5, so the long ball may officially be a problem for him now.

Perhaps better yet, these two bullpens are a mess. They’re the bottom two teams in HR/9 allowed. Given the injuries that have piled up for Toronto, one can understand the struggles. Tampa Bay’s issues are more perplexing, but the bottom line is the pen has just been pretty bad.

Possible home run bet: Vlad Guerrero Jr. (). He has surprisingly long odds considering the friendly matchup, and Statcast loves his work this year, awarding him a sizzling .538 xSLG.

Padres At Nationals

This is more speculative than the other two, but I didn’t find a whole lot of options that I loved. It does take place in an above-average park for dingers (103 park factor) between two pitchers who have been dinged by the deep fly, even if these offenses don’t inspire a ton of confidence.

Hard contact has been an issue for Padres starter Randy Vasquez. Statcast is leery of what he’s done, tagging him for a 6.26 xERA after he was north of 5 last season. It’s only 100 IP total, but he didn’t exactly have an amazing prospect pedigree either.

DJ Herz is more of a mystery. He’s been killed by the homers so far, allowing 1.72 per 9, but the sample remains very small. Given his scattershot command — FanGraphs graded it a current 30 on the 80-point scale — and the fact he walked more than 7 per 9 at Triple-A, I’m inclined to wonder if that might continue.

Possible home run bet: I’m tempted to go with the longer odds on Jesse Winker or James Wood, but I’ll pick the chalk here and go with CJ Abrams (). Vasquez can’t get lefties out (6.68 FIP, 5.62 xFIP), and Abrams isn’t a guy who takes many walks.

General Home Run Bets Strategies For Dinger Tuesdays, Homerfests

Several factors will help point the way to games that may see higher home-run totals.

For one, look for ballparks with an above-average rate of home runs hit. Statcast’s park factors can help. The linked table is also sortable by handedness via the filters. So, if you’re targeting a particularly lefty or righty-heavy lineup, sort by the home-fun factor for that handedness to get an even better idea of the home-run potential.

Targeting higher game totals will help as well. Look for games with over/unders, preferably more than 8, at least.

While home runs allowed can be a volatile stat, we can also look at pitcher home-run rates. Some pitchers have a true talent for suppressing or allowing more homers than average. Maybe they give up too many fly balls, which can lead to more home runs. Or opposing hitters barrel their pitches at a higher-than-normal rate due to poor command or fastball shape.

Finally, check the weather. Outfield winds and high temperatures can lead to balls flying further than normal. This means a higher chance of home runs. Conversely, of course, cold weather and infield winds will kill the flight of fly balls.

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