Home Run Bets: Mo’s FanDuel Dinger Tuesday Promos & Picks For July 2

Written By Mo Nuwwarah | Last Updated
home run bets

FanDuel’s Dinger Tuesday promo is back. Plus, a new and very strong home run props promo at DraftKings Sportsbook. Baseball fans can scoop up bonus bets while sweating home run wagers every Tuesday throughout the season. Here, we’ll go over possible home run picks for Dinger Tuesday on July 2, evaluating some of the options. Keep in mind these evaluations can be applied to fantasy sports picks in addition to MLB odds.

Last week was a banner one if you went with Gunnar Henderson. I recommended him at roughly +600 odds, and he came through, along with just about every other hitter in a wild 10-8 game. This week features a game in Coors and some extremely anonymous hurlers on the mound, so there should be even more offense.

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FanDuel Dinger Tuesday Promo

For those unfamiliar, we’ll provide a quick refresher on this popular FanDuel promo.

The premise is simple: bet $25 or more on any player’s “To Hit a Home Run” market on FanDuel. Regardless of the bet’s outcome, FanDuel will award your account with a $5 bonus bet for each home run hit in that game by either team. Players must opt-in, and bonus bets expire after seven days.

DraftKings Homerfest Promo

DraftKings Sportsbook is looking to get in the home run bet promo mix. They’ve added a Homerfest promo.

It’s similar to Dinger Tuesday, except it applies to all home runs hit today. Opt-in, then make a qualifying home run bet ($20 or more, odds of +100 or longer). You’ll earn $1 in bonus bets for every home run hit on Tuesday.

Mo’s Favorite Home Run Bets For Dinger Tuesday, Homerfest (July 2)

Below are my top three options for Dinger Tuesday on July 2, highlighting a few options that might make sense as home run bets.

Brewers At Rockies

Injuries to their rotation have compelled the Brewers to reach into the scrap heap and pull out Dallas Keuchel. The former star lefty has fallen very far from his peak. These days, he throws a BP-quality fastball, with his sinker coming in at 88.4 thus far.

While he avoided the long ball for the most part last year, that hadn’t been the case in the prior two seasons. Keuchel allowed 1.63 HR/9 in 2022 and 1.39 in 2021. Both of those numbers included a HR/FB% more in line with his career number than the anomalous 10% he posted last season.

Yes, the Rockies stink, but even they can find the launching pad in this matchup.

Ryan Feltner has done fine work for the Rockies, but he hasn’t been immune to the deep fly (1.27 HR/9). And this Rockies pen has been staggeringly awful. They’re nearly a run worse by ERA than the 29th-ranked group. Sure, pitching in Coors hurts, but this group is still a mess.

Possible home run bet: Let’s try and go for a Rockies longshot. Ezequiel Tovar () has fairly solid numbers against lefties in his career (91 wRC+, .463 SLG). He’s been above average against sinkers and has absolutely crushed changeups this year, so he should like what he sees from Keuchel.

Phillies At Cubs

The Phillies are also overrun with injuries at the moment. They’re trying someone called Michael Mercado on the bump today. He has thrown 1 IP in the majors. He has a 5.35 xFIP in Triple-A this year and allowed north of 2 HR/9 last season at the same level.

The projections expect about 1.5 HR/9, which seems fair.

Cubs hurler Hayden Wesneski features a nasty slider but a hittable heater. The homers have long been his bugaboo, as he has allowed an ugly 1.67 HR/9 in his career. Things have been worse than ever lately, as he’s allowed 6 HR in his past seven appearances despite just 11 IP in that time.

Unfortunately, this Phillies lineup isn’t what it used to be, with Kyle Schwarber and Bryce Harper both on the shelf.

The wind is about 15 mph today and close to blowing to the outfield, although currently, it appears angled more toward the left field line. A slight change, and we could see Wrigley turn into a launching pad.

Possible home run bet: Alec Bohm () is the premier slugger on Philly these days. I like that he gets to face the much weaker Cubs pen here. And while chasing breaking pitches was once a weak point, Bohm has significantly cut his chase and strikeout rates this year, so I’m not as concerned as I would have been in prior seasons.

Reds At Yankees

Fading Luis GIl doesn’t seem attractive at all, but it’s hard to ignore the matchup between Graham Ashcraft and the Yankees.

Ashcraft loves his cutter and leans into it hard, throwing it about half of the time. One can understand that since it’s been the best pitch in his career. However, the Yankees have been the second-most effective offense against cutters this season.

And keeping the ball in the park hasn’t always been easy for Ashcraft. He’s allowed north of 1.4 HR/9 each of the past two seasons. Earlier this year, he was bad enough to get sent back down to Triple-A.

This is all concerning against a Yankees offense that has gobs of power, even if they’re been admittedly a bit cold lately.

Possible home run bet: Aaron Judge has absolutely demolished cutters this year. However, Juan Soto has done better against them in his career, and he pays out bigger at . Lefties get a bigger edge in Yankee Stadium as well.

General Home Run Bets Strategies For Dinger Tuesdays, Homerfests

Several factors will help point the way to games that may see higher home-run totals.

For one, look for ballparks with an above-average rate of home runs hit. Statcast’s park factors can help. The linked table is also sortable by handedness via the filters. So, if you’re targeting a particularly lefty or righty-heavy lineup, sort by the home-fun factor for that handedness to get an even better idea of the home-run potential.

Targeting higher game totals will help as well. Look for games with over/unders, preferably more than 8, at least.

While home runs allowed can be a volatile stat, we can also look at pitcher home-run rates. Some pitchers have a true talent for suppressing or allowing more homers than average. Maybe they give up too many fly balls, which can lead to more home runs. Or opposing hitters barrel their pitches at a higher-than-normal rate due to poor command or fastball shape.

Finally, check the weather. Outfield winds and high temperatures can lead to balls flying further than normal. This means a higher chance of home runs. Conversely, of course, cold weather and infield winds will kill the flight of fly balls.

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