Home Run Bets: Mo’s FanDuel Dinger Tuesday Promos & Picks For April 30
FanDuel’s Dinger Tuesday promo is back. Baseball fans can scoop up bonus bets while sweating home run wagers every Tuesday throughout the season. Here, we’ll go over possible home run picks for Dinger Tuesday on April 30, evaluating some of the options. Keep in mind these evaluations can be applied to fantasy sports picks in addition to MLB odds.
Last week, none of the players we tabbed went yard, making for another whiff. However, if bettors wagered on someone in the Cubs/Astros game, which we identified as a good home run target due to the outfield winds, they were treated to four dingers. This week, it doesn’t look like the weather will help much anywhere, so we’ll have to dig a little deeper. Too bad the Mexico City series has ended.
Check out the latest FanDuel Sportsbook Promo Code below to get a new-user offer for today’s Dinger Tuesday slate.
FanDuel Dinger Tuesday Promo
For those unfamiliar, we’ll provide a quick refresher on this popular FanDuel promo.
The premise is simple: bet $25 or more on any player’s “To Hit a Home Run” market on FanDuel. Regardless of the bet’s outcome, FanDuel will award your account with a $5 bonus bet for each home run hit in that game by either team. Players must opt-in, and bonus bets expire after seven days.
Top Home Run Bets For Dinger Tuesday On April 30
Below are my top three options for Dinger Tuesday on April 30, highlighting a few options that might make sense as home run bets.
Twins At White Sox
Michael (not Mike) Soroka’s return to the mound has not gone very well. He has more walks than strikeouts to go with a 6.83 ERA this year. And in the home run department specifically, he has served up more than 2 per 9 this season and last. Not great.
In an above-average homer park, he will see a Twins offense that was struggling but has started to come to life. They teed off on the Angels last weekend and get an easier assignment here. The White Sox’s home park isn’t as good as Angel Stadium for dingers, but it’s still above average.
Getting to face some White Sox bullpen is a nice little bonus as well. They’ve served up 1.35 HR/9, third-worst in MLB.
On the other side of the ball, we might not get much help from Chicago, but they did just come up with a surprising sweep of Tampa. It’s too early in Simeon Woods Richardson’s career to know if he has a home run issue, but he does at least have a heavy fly ball lean (29 GB%).
Bottom line, though: we need to get our Soroka fades in before he’s relegated to bullpen duty himself.
Possible home run bet: Edouard Julien () has started to heat up. He collected six hits in the past four games, including a pair of long flies. He smashes right-handed pitching and has a monster .292 ISO in the early going.
Guardians At Astros
Carlos Carrasco might be below major-league quality at this point. He was holding it together with smoke and mirrors but finally came apart at the seams giving up nine hits and three homers to a depleted Boston bunch last week. I don’t really see that changing for the better, not having lost 2 mph from his heater in a season in which he already performed below replacement level.
Hunter Brown has the stuff but he’s been erratic. He has two blow-ups in the early going (one truly spectacular) in which he tallied more earned runs than innings. He might be on, but then again he might not be and a Cleveland offense that surprisingly ranks top 10 can do some damage.
Certainly, we know the Astros can. They have one of the best offenses in baseball in spite of the early struggles. And they just called up thumper Joey Loperfido to fill one of their holes, hopefully relegating Jose Abreu and Jon Singleton to bench duty.
Possible home run bet: Josh Naylor (). Cleveland doesn’t have a ton of power, but Naylor supplies a heavy dose. He’s slugging .535 so far with a scorching .394 xwOBA. And the Astros pen has been a mess, so he might get a double dose of meatballs.
Yankees At Orioles
Unlike many games highlighted here, this one does not feature any quad-A talent on the mound. No, Nestor Cortes and Dean Kremer are both fine pitchers, if a bit on the homer-prone side (1.47 HR/9 for Cortes, 1.38 for Kremer).
What this game does feature is thump, and plenty of it. Baltimore has hit more home runs than anyone, with New York right behind. Both teams rank in the top two in wRC+, with the Orioles additionally leading MLB in slugging. Monday’s 2-0 stinker from these units notwithstanding, there’s going to be power present, even if right-handed batters find themselves at a distinct disadvantage these days in Oriole Park.
Possible home run bet: We’d better pick a lefty, as it’s far easier to leave the yard from that side. Juan Soto () looks like the best bet, and he’s tattooing the ball, with a .438 xwOBA. He’s also slugging .564, his best mark since 2020.
General Home Run Bets Strategies For Dinger Tuesdays
Several factors will help point the way to games that may see higher home-run totals.
For one, look for ballparks with an above-average rate of home runs hit. Statcast’s park factors can help. The linked table is also sortable by handedness via the filters. So, if you’re targeting a particularly lefty or righty-heavy lineup, sort by the home-fun factor for that handedness to get an even better idea of the home-run potential.
Targeting higher game totals will help as well. Look for games with over/unders, preferably more than 8, at least.
While home runs allowed can be a volatile stat, we can also look at pitcher home-run rates. Some pitchers have a true talent for suppressing or allowing more homers than average. Maybe they give up too many fly balls, which can lead to more home runs. Or opposing hitters barrel their pitches at a higher-than-normal rate due to poor command or fastball shape.
Finally, check the weather. Outfield winds and high temperatures can lead to balls flying further than normal. This means a higher chance of home runs. Conversely, of course, cold weather and infield winds will kill the flight of fly balls.
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