Home Run Bets: Mo’s FanDuel Dinger Tuesday Promos & Picks For April 16

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Written By Mo Nuwwarah | Last Updated
home run bets

FanDuel’s Dinger Tuesday promo is back. Baseball fans can scoop up bonus bets while sweating home run wagers every Tuesday throughout the season. Here, we’ll go over possible home run picks for Dinger Tuesday on April 16, evaluating some of the options. Keep in mind these evaluations can be applied to fantasy sports picks in addition to MLB odds.

Last week, we whiffed as the slate wound up being pretty dinger-light. We did identify one game with plenty of offense, but Brewers-Reds ended up being a doubles-fest with nine of them smacked and nary a homer. A few games have real launching pad potential this week, marrying homer-prone pitchers and powerful offenses in offense-friendly confines.

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FanDuel Dinger Tuesday Promo

For those unfamiliar, we’ll provide a quick refresher on this popular FanDuel promo.

The premise is simple: bet $25 or more on any player’s “To Hit a Home Run” market on FanDuel. Regardless of the bet’s outcome, FanDuel will award your account with a $5 bonus bet for each home run hit in that game by either team. Players must opt-in, and bonus bets expire after seven days.

Top Home Run Bets For Dinger Tuesday On April 16

Below are my top three options for Dinger Tuesday on April 16, highlighting a few options that might make sense as home run bets.

1. Nationals At Dodgers

The No. 2 home-run park has the most delicious dinger matchup today.

Patrick Corbin has endured four-straight seasons of serving meatballs. His last three years’ worth of HR/9: 1.94, 1.59, 1.65. Good luck against a Dodgers lineup that might have more power than anyone.

And Ryan Yarbrough, another lefty, gets by purely on guile. There’s simply no other way to survive with 87 mph fastball velocity. His location is generally very good, but when he misses, the ball often goes a long way. When you have stuff that would fit into the middle of a low-level college team’s rotation, that tends to happen.

The Nationals also have surprisingly decent pop and love to swing. Yarbrough hardly ever walks anyone (BB% of 3.7 last year), so there will be opportunities for Washington’s hitters.

Possible home run bet: Teoscar Hernandez (). He crushed lefties, slugging a whopping .559 against them for his career. Hopefully, he can avoid taking bad swings here, as sliders have been a weak point in his career, and Corbin is very slider-happy.

2. Yankees At Blue Jays

Unfortunately, Toronto is no longer the homer haven it once was after the park was reconfigured in 2023. Still, there’s decent dinger potential here.

Carlos Rodon is coming off a terrible, homer-prone season and has a strong fly ball lean. If the Jays put a few charges into those flies, they’ll get out. While this offense has not hit for the expected power since last season, they still have some boppers.

And while Yusei Kikuchi has finally rounded into being the good pitcher his peripherals always suggested he was, the long ball has always been his bugaboo. His best full-season HR/9 mark was last year’s 1.45. Needless to say, the Yankees represent an enticing matchup in that sense. They finished ninth in isolated power last year and added Juan Soto to the mix.

Possible home run bet: Bo Bichette (). He’s off to a cold start, but this does look like a nice matchup for him. He’s slugged .530 in his career against southpaws. His ground ball lean also plays nicely against Rodon’s fly ball tendencies.

3. Braves At Astros

The Astros have been a bit hot and cold with the sticks so far, but these were two of the top five offenses last year, and they’re two of the top three so far this year. Both teams also favor a contact-heavy approach, landing in the bottom half of the league in K%, so they get their value from swinging and not taking free bases.

Both teams are also loaded with right-handed hitters who can take advantage of the short porch in left.

Neither of these pitchers will knock your socks off, though Reynaldo Lopez is off to a decent start in his return to the rotation. I’m particularly interested in fading Hunter Brown, though. He is off to a very rocky start and just had a career-worst turn against the Royals in which he allowed 9 ER and didn’t escape the first. Some of his sliders are being reclassified as cutters this year, so I think something’s wrong with his stuff.

The Braves will probably have the best offense in MLB again this year, so they are not the team you want to be serving up poorly executed breaking pitches.

An over/under of is enticing here.

Possible home run bet: Marcell Ozuna (). This guy is just destroying the baseball once again. A year after he posted a scalding .396 xwOBA, he’s at .479 in the early going. He already has seven dingers. Bobby Witt Jr. might be the only guy hitting the ball harder so far.

General Home Run Bets Strategies For Dinger Tuesdays

Several factors will help point the way to games that may see higher home-run totals.

For one, look for ballparks with an above-average rate of home runs hit. Statcast’s park factors can help. The linked table is also sortable by handedness via the filters. So, if you’re targeting a particularly lefty or righty-heavy lineup, sort by the home-fun factor for that handedness to get an even better idea of the home-run potential.

Targeting higher game totals will help as well. Look for games with over/unders, preferably more than 8, at least.

While home runs allowed can be a volatile stat, we can also look at pitcher home-run rates. Some pitchers have a true talent for suppressing or allowing more homers than average. Maybe they give up too many fly balls, which can lead to more home runs. Or opposing hitters barrel their pitches at a higher-than-normal rate due to poor command or fastball shape.

Finally, check the weather. Outfield winds and high temperatures can lead to balls flying further than normal. This means a higher chance of home runs. Conversely, of course, cold weather and infield winds will kill the flight of fly balls.

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