Home Run Bets: Mo’s Aug. 6 Picks For FanDuel Dinger Tuesday Promo

FanDuel’s Dinger Tuesday promo is back. Plus, a new and very strong home run props promo at DraftKings Sportsbook. Baseball fans can scoop up bonus bets while sweating home run wagers every Tuesday throughout the season. Here, we’ll go over possible home run picks for Dinger Tuesday on Aug. 6, evaluating some of the options. Keep in mind these evaluations can be applied to fantasy sports picks in addition to MLB odds.

We whiffed last week for the first time in a while on home run bets. We identified some games that featured plenty of offense, but dingers were in somewhat short supply, though each game did see three launches. For the most part, there aren’t a lot of scary arms on the bumps today, so perhaps we can find some more dingers.

Check out the latest FanDuel Sportsbook Promo Code below to get a new-user offer for today’s Dinger Tuesday slate.

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Mo’s Favorite Home Run Bets For Dinger Tuesday, Homerfest (Aug. 6)

Below are my top three options for Dinger Tuesday on Aug. 6, highlighting a few options that might make sense as home run bets.

Brewers At Braves

Colin Rea has turned in a shockingly great season for the Brewers, but he has no history of this sort of contact management. Batters are still hitting him plenty hard, as evidenced by his 4.92 xERA. He seems very unlikely to keep pitching to a 3.59 ERA and is likely a true talent 4.5 ERA guy.

The contact management magic has also worn off for Bryce Elder. He’s been shuttled back and forth from the minors to Atlanta making spot starts as needed. Throwing 91 mph heat from the right side is a good way to get squared up.

And as much as Atlanta’s offense has struggled, there’s still power here. The Braves rank seventh in total home runs. Truist Park is also the eighth friendliest for dingers.

My main concerns here would be the top-notch bullpens backing these unexciting starters and the fact that the wind is blowing in at a modest 8 mph rate.

Possible home run bet: Is it possible that someone has woken up Matt Olson ()? The slugger, who has looked lost at the plate this year while posting a 99 wRC+, came to life last week with four dingers. Let’s see if he can keep the heater going.

Mets At Rockies

Luis Severino is enjoying something of a resurgent campaign here in 2024, but it’s all coming on the back of contact management. He’s not missing bats (career-worst 8.4% swinging strikes) anymore.

Given his stuff, it’s certainly possible he keeps it up, but the problem is Coors Field. Contact management approaches tend to do quite a bit worse there since contact does more damage in Coors than anywhere else. At least Severino gets to face the dreadful Colorado offense.

Kyle Freeland gets no such reprieve. He’s actually been a bit better this year by some measures, but the dinger has always dogged him. In a shortened campaign (he spent the first part of the season injured), he’s allowed 1.37 HR/9 the third time in the past four years he had such a number or worse.

And hardly anyone has hit lefties harder than the Mets. They have a 120 wRC+ in that split. They’ll field an almost entirely right-handed lineup to challenge Freeland’s splits. He’s allowed a .466 SLG to opposite-handed hitters in his career.

And that might be the hard part of the Mets’ assignment. The less said about this Rockies pen, the better.

Possible home run bet: Mark Vientos (+320) has murdered lefties to a staggering degree this year. He has a 213 wRC+ against them while slugging .707. Good luck to Freeland. He will need it here.

Phillies At Dodgers

Remember the part above where I mentioned that hardly anyone hits lefties harder than the Mets? Well, the only teams that do are the Phillies and Dodgers. So, the top two offenses against southpaws face off with left-handed arms, albeit ones that have plenty of capability to shut teams down.

Still, the amount of power here is considerable. Both teams rank in the top eight in slugging and total homers.

After a relatively encouraging 2024 debut, the red flags were everywhere in Clayton Kershaw’s second go. The Padres rocked him for seven runs (3 ER). Most concerningly, he struck out zero batters for the first time in his entire career. His fastball velocity dropped to 89.6 on average, a full tick lower than his initial start.

Possible home run bet: Trea Turner (+450) has slugged .499 against lefties in his career. He has positive career run values against all three of Kershaw’s main pitch types. And Kershaw does seem to be the more questionable pitcher in this matchup.

FanDuel Dinger Tuesday Promo

For those unfamiliar, we’ll provide a quick refresher on this popular FanDuel promo.

The premise is simple: bet $25 or more on any player’s “To Hit a Home Run” market on FanDuel. Regardless of the bet’s outcome, FanDuel will award your account with a $5 bonus bet for each home run hit in that game by either team. Players must opt-in, and bonus bets expire after seven days.

DraftKings Homerfest Promo

DraftKings Sportsbook is looking to get in the home run bet promo mix. They’ve added a Homerfest promo.

It’s similar to Dinger Tuesday, except it applies to all home runs hit today. Opt-in, then make a qualifying home run bet ($20 or more, odds of +100 or longer). You’ll earn $1 in bonus bets for every home run hit on Tuesday.

Promo value may vary by customer. Read all promotional terms and conditions before opting in and wagering.

General Home Run Bets Strategies For Dinger Tuesdays, Homerfests

Several factors will help point the way to games that may see higher home-run totals.

For one, look for ballparks with an above-average rate of home runs hit. Statcast’s park factors can help. The linked table is also sortable by handedness via the filters. So, if you’re targeting a particularly lefty or righty-heavy lineup, sort by the home-fun factor for that handedness to get an even better idea of the home-run potential.

Targeting higher game totals will help as well. Look for games with over/unders, preferably more than 8, at least.

While home runs allowed can be a volatile stat, we can also look at pitcher home-run rates. Some pitchers have a true talent for suppressing or allowing more homers than average. Maybe they give up too many fly balls, which can lead to more home runs. Or opposing hitters barrel their pitches at a higher-than-normal rate due to poor command or fastball shape.

Finally, check the weather. Outfield winds and high temperatures can lead to balls flying further than normal. This means a higher chance of home runs. Conversely, of course, cold weather and infield winds will kill the flight of fly balls.

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