Home Run Bets: FanDuel Dinger Tuesday Promo, Picks For April 9
FanDuel's Dinger Tuesday promo is back. Baseball fans can scoop up bonus bets while sweating home run bets every Tuesday throughout the season. Here, we'll go over possible home run picks for Dinger Tuesday on April 9, evaluating some of the options. Keep in mind these evaluations can be applied to fantasy sports picks in addition to MLB odds.
Last week, we did manage to identify a winner with Bryce Harper (+500) going yard. Plus, four homers in the game added an extra $20 in bonus bets.
This week's slate has some more rain in the forecast. We have our first Dinger Tuesday with a Rockies home game. And interestingly, some of the more homer-prone pitchers find themselves in good environments for preventing the long ball.
Programming note: we'll be focusing on the evening slate in these articles.
FanDuel Dinger Tuesday Promo
For those unfamiliar, we'll provide a quick refresher on this popular FanDuel promo.
The premise is simple. Bet $25 or more on any player's "To Hit a Home Run" market on FanDuel. Regardless of the bet's outcome, FanDuel will award the player's account with a $5 bonus bet for each home run hit in that game by either team. Players must opt-in and bonus bets expire after seven days.
General Home Run Bets Strategies For Dinger Tuesdays
Several factors will help point the way to games that may see higher home-run totals.
For one, look for ballparks that see an above-average rate of home runs hit. Statcast's park factors can help. The linked table is sortable by handedness via the filters as well. So if you're targeting a particularly lefty- or righty-heavy lineup, sort by home-fun factor for that handedness to get an even better idea of the home-run potential.
Targeting higher game totals will help as well. Look for games with over/unders, preferably more than 8, at least.
While home runs allowed can be a volatile stat, we can also look at pitcher home-run rates. Some pitchers have a true talent for suppressing or allowing more homers than average. Maybe they simply give up too many fly balls, which can lead to more home runs. Or opposing hitters barrel their pitches at a higher-than-normal rate due to poor command or fastball shape.
Finally, check the weather. Outfield winds and high temperatures can lead to balls flying further than normal. This means a higher chance of home runs. Conversely, of course, cold weather and infield winds will kill the flight of fly balls.
Top Home Run Bets For Dinger Tuesday On April 9
Here, we'll go over the top three options for Dinger Tuesday, while highlighting a select few options that might make sense as home run bets.
Marlins At Yankees
We don't like having to rely on the Marlins' pathetic offense to hit us some dingers, but it's hard to ignore just how incredibly poorly things have gone for AJ Puk in his attempt to transition to a starter role. Puk has gotten through 6 IP total in two starts with an ERA of 9 and peripherals that aren't much better.
Facing a powerful Yankees offense in the third-best park for home runs, and that could be a recipe for an early exit.
If that does come to pass, good luck to a Marlins bullpen with an ERA north of 6 that has served up 1.38 HR/9 in the early going. That ranks 21st.
And while the Miami offense stinks, Carlos Rodon has really struggled with the long ball since becoming a Yankee. He allowed a monster 2.1 HR/9 last season and hasn't been much better so far this year.
Encouragingly, most of the Marlins' power comes from Josh Bell and Jake Burger. Bell has been better hitting left-handed for most of his career, but that reversed in a big way last season. He slugged more than 100 points higher on the ride side of the dish. And Burger feasts on southpaws, with a career 135 wRC+.
Possible home run bet: Let's try Giancarlo Stanton (). He has a career 159 wRC+ against lefties while slugging .592 against them. And he's getting hot, with extra-base hits in each of the past three games.
Brewers At Reds
Keep an eye on the weather in this one, as there's a 64% chance of rain in the early forecast. However, assuming the game goes, we could see some sneaky power in the No. 1 park for home runs, despite the presence of offenses that are best described as middling.
The nice thing about this matchup is there's a decent chance both teams are dipping into their middle relief corps relatively early. Joe Ross figures to be on a short leash and is very inefficient due to his high walk rate. And while Montas has already thrown 100 pitches in a start, the team will probably be careful with him due to his recent injury history. If he's in any trouble and building up a high pitch count, he'll get the hook.
Middle relievers against decent offenses in a bandbox isn't a bad recipe for some homers.
Possible home run bet: Willy Adames (). He's smacking the ball around early with a .351 xWOBA. And he actually has a reverse split in his career, hitting much better without the platoon advantage.
Diamondbacks At Rockies
This game has the highest total on the board, needless to say.
Merrill Kelly has done a solid job limiting homers the past two seasons, as has Cal Quantrill. But Quantrill does have some tendencies that look like they'll play poorly in Coors Field, as he allowed a high rate of contact and more than his share of fly balls.
Any game in Coors is a game where the balls can start flying out at any moment. Both sides have boppers, with guys like Christian Walker, Joc Pederson, and Nolan Jones in projected lineups.
I especially like that these project to be two of the worst bullpens in MLB. Arizona is really hurting in that department with Paul Sewald out. Look for a possible flurry of runs late, similar to what Tampa Bay pulled off here recently.
Possible home run bet: Joc Pederson (). Pederson may only get a few at-bats before he's subbed out for someone else to face a lefty reliever. But the guy has legit power with a .490 SLG against RHP. And he's hitting the stuffing out of the ball so far with a 236 wRC+ and a .374 xWOBA.
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