Home Run Bets: FanDuel Dinger Tuesday Promo, Picks For April 2
FanDuel's Dinger Tuesday promo is back. Baseball fans can scoop up bonus bets while sweating home run bets every Tuesday throughout the season. Here, we'll go over possible home run picks for Dinger Tuesday on April 2, evaluating some of the options. Keep in mind these evaluations can be applied to fantasy sports picks in addition to MLB odds.
This week's slate features a lot of iffy weather. Additionally, there are a few ace pitchers on the hill, including at least one in a high-home-run environment. Let's take a look at how things might shake out in the home run department today.
FanDuel Dinger Tuesday Promo
For those unfamiliar, we'll provide a quick refresher on this popular FanDuel promo.
The premise is simple. Bet $25 or more on any player's "To Hit a Home Run" market on FanDuel. Regardless of the bet's outcome, FanDuel will award the player's account with a $5 bonus bet for each home run hit in that game by either team. Players must opt-in and bonus bets expire after seven days.
General Home Run Bets Strategies For Dinger Tuesdays
Several factors will help point the way to games that may see higher home-run totals.
For one, look for ballparks that see an above-average rate of home runs hit. Statcast's park factors can help. The linked table is sortable by handedness via the filters as well. So if you're targeting a particularly lefty- or righty-heavy lineup sort by home-fun factor for that handedness to get an even better idea of the home-run potential.
Targeting higher game totals will help as well. Look for games with over/unders, preferably more than 8, at least.
While home runs allowed can be a volatile stat, we can also look at pitcher home-run rates. Some pitchers have a true talent for suppressing or allowing more homers than average. Maybe they simply give up too many fly balls, which can lead to more home runs. Or opposing hitters barrel their pitches at a higher-than-normal rate due to poor command or fastball shape.
Finally, check the weather. Outfield winds and high temperatures can lead to balls flying further than normal. This means a higher chance of home runs. Conversely, of course, cold weather and infield winds will kill the flight of fly balls.
Top Home Run Bets For Dinger Tuesday On April 2
Here, we'll go over the top three options for Dinger Tuesday, while highlighting a select few options that might make sense as home run bets.
Twins At Brewers
American Family Field is a good park for home runs, and neither of these pitchers looks well set up to suppress the long ball.
Louie Varland struggled big time in that department so far in the majors, allowing nearly 2 HR/9. I also like that Jakob Junis has weak splits against lefties due to his high reliance on his slider, which he throws more than his fastball these days. Although his homer splits are about even, Junis has allowed a .352 wOBA to lefties, and the Minnesota lineup will feature six of them.
Possible home run bet: Matt Wallner (). Wallner has light-tower power (.258 ISO last year). He matches up well with Junis as a lefty, but he may get pulled for a pinch hitter as well at some point.
Reds At Phillies
Only three ballparks have produced a higher home-run factor than Citizens Bank in the three-year rolling average.
An uninspiring pair of arms will take the hill in Graham Ashcraft and Spencer Turnbull. Ashcraft throws hard, but his stuff got tattooed last year (4.96 xERA). Turnbull had horrific numbers last year as he tried to recover from Tommy John. Maybe he's back to his old self this year, but maybe he's not. He did have a nice spring but the sample was tiny as he only threw 8 IP.
The Phillies especially feature plenty of power with Kyle Schwaber and Bryce Harper expected to play.
Possible home run bet: Harper (). We'll go with the violent-swinging lefty here, as he has a higher pitch value produced against cutters by quite a bit compared to Schwarber. Ashcraft throws his cutter more than 50% of the time.
Giants At Dodgers
Dodgers stadium ranks second in three-year rolling home run rate. And, of course, the Dodgers might have more power in the lineup than any other team, with Shohei Ohtani, Mookie Betts, and Freddie Freeman anchoring the lineup, to say nothing of Will Smith, Max Muncy, and Teoscar Hernandez.
Logan Webb and his elite homer suppression will have something to say about that. On the other hand, though, home runs have always been a bugaboo for bulk reliever Ryan Yarbrough, who is expected to handle the most innings for L.A. That will happen when you only throw 87 mph.
Possible home run bet: Matt Chapman () is on fire so far with 2 HRs and a 150 wRC+. He has slugged .475 against lefties in his career, so he'll be in a good spot against Yarbrough. But he also doesn't have a very big platoon split, so he matches up just fine no matter who is on the mound for the Dodgers.
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