2024 Hero World Challenge Golf Odds Preview: Everything To Know About Albany GC

The stars are out in the Bahamas this week as Tiger Woods’ notorious invitational event is set to welcome many of the game’s most recognizable names to Albany GC for the 2024 Hero World Challenge. It’s become a polarizing event over the years, as some view the Hero World Challenge as a glorified “hit and giggle” for 20 of Tiger Woods’ closest friends to compete in a closed circuit. OWGR points are up for grabs in this limited-field invitational. And with a $5 million purse, there’s enough stakes to keep these players motivated. Let’s review key course info and odds for the 2024 Hero World Challenge.

It would be a bit of a fool’s errand to over-analyze a December PGA Tour event with just 20 players to the same extent as our usual week-to-week research process. However, there is still plenty of value to exploit in the betting markets for this event. With that, we’ll take a look through the event trends and course fit info you need to know before placing your bets on 2024 Hero World Challenge golf odds.

hero world challenge Golf ODDS: THE FAVORITES

Here are the favorites for the Hero World Challenge at golf betting sites this week. Scroll to the bottom of this post to compare odds for the entire field across betting apps in your state. And be sure to lock in the best sportsbook promo codes before making any wagers.

Hero World Challenge ODDS: FIELD AT A GLANCE

A very compact field of just 20 players is set for Tiger Woods’ invitational event. Defending champion Scottie Scheffler headlines as the prohibitive favorite, as Monday’s odds place him at 2-1 to repeat. For context, consensus odds place the next closest competitor at 11-1.

With Scheffler coming off the most dominant season we’ve seen since Tiger Woods, some golf bettors may simply write this off as another event in which he can sleepwalk his way to victory. I can understand that. However, we have to acknowledge that it has been over three months since we last saw Scottie Scheffler in competition. This will be his first time teeing it up since winning the Tour Championship.

If there were ever a time to catch Scottie off of his game, it would have to be a situation like this, where he is shaking off the rust on a resort course full of distractions. Now, to be fair, the exact same situation presented itself last year. He won this event in his first start since the Tour Championship. However, at 2-1 odds, I’m going to look elsewhere when placing my bets on Hero World Challenge odds.

Of the next tier of contenders, Justin Thomas, Ludvig Aberg, Patrick Cantlay, Sungjae Im, and Sam Burns headline. All 20 players in the field fall inside the OWGR top 40, with Nick Dunlap, Jason Day, and Sepp Straka earning special invites from tournament host Tiger Woods. Tony Finau was a late, surprise withdrawal, sparking early speculation about a potential jump to LIV in 2025.

INTRODUCTION TO Albany GC

A resort course in Nassau, Bahamas, designed by Ernie Els in 2010, is sneakily one of the most intriguing tests of golf on the PGA Tour calendar. The 7,449-yard par 72 features a distinct configuration of five par 5s, five par 3s, and eight par 4s. That creates a heightened emphasis on par-5 scoring, with inherently more weight on approach proximity from beyond 200 yards. Golfers need ample long irons across the par 5s and par 3s.

The course is Bermuda-based, like many of the other international resort courses we have seen on the PGA Tour (Port Royal GC, Grand Reserve). Interestingly, however, Albany GC does not rely on the elements as its primary defense. While winds can intervene here, it’s the lateral bunkers and runouts into lateral natural hazards that can cause havoc at Albany GC. We’ll see plenty of lateral punchouts this week similar to what we may find at a links- or desert-style course. So, control off the tee is an added bonus.

Albany Golf Club COURSE SPECS

• Yards: 7,448
• Par: 72 (5x 3s / 8x 4s / 5x 5s)
• Greens: Bermuda
• Architect: Ernie Els
• Comp courses: Waialae CC, Black Desert Resort, El Camaleon, Port Royal GC, TPC Scottsdale. Black Desert Resort, TPC Summerlin, Colonial CC
• Historical cut line: N/A
• Past winners: Scottie Scheffler -20 (’23), Viktor Hovland -16 (’22), Viktor Hovland -18 (’21), Henrik Stenson -18 (’19), Jon Rahm -20 (’18)

COURSE HISTORY AND COURSE COMPS

Albany GC is not equipped with ShotLink for strokes gained data. In lieu of this, the list of players in this field who have posted a top-five finish here within the last five years includes Scottie Scheffler, Justin Thomas, Sam Burns, Cameron Young, and Sepp Straka.

Course Comps

It’s difficult to confidently identify accurate course comps for this week, given the absence of ShotLink data and a tiny sample size of 20-player fields over a short look back. As far as Bermuda-based coastal courses over 7,400 yards go, Grand Reserve stands out to me as the top option, considering Viktor Hovland’s crossover success at both. Port Royal GC and Waialae CC should also compare well with its coastal Bermuda agronomy.

Unfortunately, however, opposite-field events aren’t very actionable for gleaning insights when it comes to this top-heavy field. If we look beyond the coastal Bermuda resort qualifiers, I also like PGA National and Sea Island Resort as serviceable comps.

Lastly, given the constant threat of natural hazards with firm runouts throughout, it’s worth referencing performance on links courses in recent years at the Scottish and British Open. I’ll also take a look at performance on desert-style stateside courses like Black Desert Resort, TPC Scottsdale, and TPC Summerlin to simulate the style of play needed to navigate Albany GC.

Combine performance across this list, and the top 10 players in comp course history here are Scottie Scheffler, Justin Thomas, Sepp Straka, Patrick Cantlay, Sam Burns, Sahith Theegala, Brian Harman, Russell Henley, Cameron Young, and Tom Kim.

KEY STATS TO CONSIDER for Hero World Challenge Golf Odds

• SG: APP / SG: Ball striking
• Prox: 200+
• Good drives gained
• Scrambling gained / sand saves
• Par-3 scoring
• Par-5 scoring
• SG: T2G (coastal windy conditions)
• SG: P (L36, Bermuda)
• Course & comp course history

my 2024 Hero World Challenge outright bets

I don’t think it’s very practical to run a model for a 20-man field on a course without any strokes gained data. And suffice it to say that if I were to run a model, Scottie Scheffler would rate out as the No. 1 player by a substantial margin. Instead, let’s skip straight to the players I’m betting on in the 2024 Hero World Challenge and why I like their odds. The card follows my usual risk/reward exposure of 3.5U total to return 25U each.

Justin Thomas +1100

The player with the best chance to dethrone Scottie Scheffler at this event is Justin Thomas, and all things considered, these are pretty fair odds for the next best in a field of just 20 players. For all intents and purposes, Thomas has returned to his prime form, last seen finishing T2 at the ZOZO Championship.

He’ll come motivated to add another win to his resume, and he has continued to knock on the door at this event with four consecutive top-five finishes.

Sahith Theegala +2500

Rust will not be a factor for Theegala, who notched multiple fall swing starts, including a T7 at the Procore Championship. His imaginative shot-making ability makes him a great fit to combat the coastal elements this week, as he’s demonstrated with top-five finishes last year at the RSM Classic and RBC Heritage.

I really like TPC Scottsdale as a comp course for Albany GC given the lateral natural hazards in play and Scheffler’s strong crossover success. So Theegala’s two top-five finishes over the last three years at the WM Phoenix Open are encouraging for this price.

Check back in later this week for more updates, and best of luck navigating Hero World Challenge odds!

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hero world challenge Odds Comparison Table

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