Four Horsemen Of The Heisman Race: Gabriel, Ward, Hunter, Jeanty Lead Odds

Halloween is knocking at the door, a holiday that marks a major shift in college football. Even with the new 12-team College Football Playoff, every game from here on out holds much more water than one played in September. And, notably, the Heisman Trophy race kicks into gear. Leading into Week 10 of the season, we’ve got a tight race between the top four in Heisman odds: Oregon QB Dillon Gabriel (Dillon Gabriel +6600 on BetMGM), Miami QB Cam Ward (Cameron Ward +1400 on DraftKings), Colorado two-way star Travis Hunter (Travis Hunter -455 on BetRivers), and Boise State RB Ashton Jeanty (Ashton Jeanty +750 on BetMGM). I present to you this Halloween week, the Four Horsemen of the Heisman. There’s a pun somewhere, but I couldn’t find it.

But what do each of their routes to striking the pose look like? Let’s profile each one, including the biggest games left on the schedule and how each one stacks up to a previous winner.

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Dillon Gabriel, QB, Oregon

Gabriel entered the year already one of the favorites for the Heisman. In his five-plus seasons, he has 58 starts, over 17,000 yards passing (second-most all-time), and 143 passing touchdowns. While giving the former UCF and Oklahoma QB the Heisman as a career achievement award would be fitting, Gabriel is playing perhaps his best season yet. He’s on track to post a career-high in completion rate (76.2%!).

But where Gabriel’s Heisman campaign really builds is in Oregon’s multiple big games since it transitioned to the Big Ten. The Ducks upended No. 2 Ohio State at home and dismantled No. 20 Illinois. A Week 2 win over Boise State looks better by the day. And at the forefront of these wins sits Gabriel. He scored the game-winning touchdown with his legs against the Buckeyes in what currently sticks as his Heisman moment.

Oregon ranks No. 1 in the nation for the first time since 2012 and tracks to be a perfect 12-0 heading into a likely Big Ten Championship Game.

How Gabriel Compares To Recent QB Winners

The last four Heisman Trophy quarterback winners posted completion rates over 66% and QB ratings over 160. Every QB winner since 2010 accounted for at least 44 touchdowns. Of those 12, 11 accounted for at least 47 touchdowns and seven for 50 touchdowns. Barring a truly historic outbreak over the last four games, Gabriel is likely to fall short of the touchdown qualifier.

Previous Heisman winners at QB also posted high average depth of targets (aDOT). Jayden Daniels in 2023 posted 10.5, Caleb Williams in 2022 posted 9.7, and Bryce Young in 2021 posted 9.0. Gabriel sits at just 6.7, a product of the hyper-efficient Oregon offense. Statistically, Gabriel falls well short of recent winners.

• Remaining opponents: at Michigan, Maryland, at Wisconsin, Washington
• Biggest remaining game: at Michigan
• Best performance: 23-34, 342 passing yards, 32 rushing yards, three total touchdowns (Week 7 vs. Ohio State)
• Projected team wins: 11.9
• Strength of record: Fourth
• Case against: Lackluster touchdown numbers

Current Heisman odds: Dillon Gabriel +6600 on BetMGM
Opening odds: +600

Cam Ward, QB, Miami

Despite coming out as a true freshman and passing for over 2,200 yards (24 TDs, 4 INTs), Ward is playing his best football in 2024. Now on his third school (he started at FCS Incarnate Word before transferring to Washington State), Ward found the brightest spotlight in America: The U. Miami famously had a troubled recent stretch of over-promising and under-delivering. The Hurricanes hit the AP Top 25 in September in five of the last six years and finished unranked four times.

But Ward finally managed to bring Miami into a serious contender position. The ’Canes are 8-0 for the first time since 2017 and have the inside track to the ACC Championship Game. Ward leads Power Conference QBs in yards (2,746) and touchdowns (24) through nine weeks. Miami will be favored in its final four games, heavily so, but does feature a trio of tricky games against 6-2 Duke (home), at Georgia Tech (we know how that went down last year, but Tech may be down its starting QB), and at Syracuse (where dreams go to die).

Barring no drastic downturn in performance, Ward has his chair in New York already reserved.

How Ward Compares To Recent QB Winners

The last two Heisman Trophy-winning QBs won the hardware coming out of the transfer portal: Jayden Daniels (Arizona State to LSU) and Caleb Williams (Oklahoma to USC). Ward matches the aDOT (9.5), completion rate (68%), and QB rating profile (174.7). However, he, like Gabriel, tracks to fall short of the touchdown benchmarks.

On paper, Ward appears to mirror recent QB winners. He plays at a high-profile school on track to finish the regular season 12-0. Just about the only outcome that could derail his chance to win appears to be a misstep in the ACC Championship Game and being out-dueled by Cade Klubnik, Eli Holstein, or Kevin Jennings, depending on who Miami sees in Charlotte.

• Remaining opponents: Duke, at Georgia Tech, Wake Forest, at Syracuse
• Biggest remaining game: at Syracuse
• Best performance: 24-38, 343 passing yards, 57 rushing yards, five total touchdowns (Week 5 vs. Virginia Tech)
• Projected team wins: 11.9
• Strength of record: Second
• Case against: Lackluster touchdown numbers

Current Heisman odds: Cameron Ward +1400 on DraftKings
Opening odds: +2200

Travis Hunter, WR/CB, Colorado

Plenty of NFL scouts tab Hunter as the best prospect in the upcoming 2025 NFL Draft. Despite predictions that his 130-snap average isn’t sustainable, the receiver/corner continues to defy the odds. Through nine weeks, Hunter sits 11th nationally with 757 receiving yards and sixth with eight receiving touchdowns. On defense, he ranks 16th in coverage grades, per PFF.

Hunter opened the year with 50-1 odds to win the Heisman. When he played “just” 96 snaps in Weeks 7 and 8 combined, Hunter saw his price drop from 3-1 to 18-1 briefly before immediately rebounding. The result? His best performance of the year and 137 played snaps against Cincinnati.

An unsung benefit to Hunter’s chances at the Heisman is playing for Deion Sanders. Sanders has been extremely vocal about his desire to win Hunter the Heisman, and he’s doing everything in his coaching power to build that resume. An added benefit is that Colorado continues to win games, now at 6-2 on the season. With what should have been a brutal stretch of games upcoming now being a winnable set of games, the Buffs have a real chance to go 10-2. That record would cement Hunter as a finalist (if he isn’t already) and likely win him the trophy.

How Hunter Compares To Recent Winners

Well, he doesn’t, and that’s to his advantage. We haven’t seen a player like Travis Hunter in the modern game. Even past two-way stars — think Charles Woodson, Chris Gamble, and Champ Bailey — weren’t playing 130 snaps per game. Since the Heisman Trophy is voting-based and many voters make decisions based on national narrative and the good, old-fashioned “eye test,” Hunter will get plenty of votes should he stay on the field.

In his iconic Heisman season, Woodson had 12 total catches and four total touchdowns. He was primarily a corner. Through 11 games, Hunter has 60 receptions and eight touchdowns, plus 430 snaps as a corner. This is uncharted territory.

• Remaining opponents: at Texas Tech, Utah, at Kansas, Oklahoma State
• Biggest remaining game: at Texas Tech (I guess?)
• Best performance: Nine receptions, 153 yards, two touchdowns, four passes defended (Week 9 vs. Cincinnati)
• Projected team wins: 8.8
• Strength of record: 24th
• Case against: Active disdain for the Colorado program (yes, really), out-of-touch voters (there are 900 of them!) voting for QBs by default

Current Heisman odds: Travis Hunter -455 on BetRivers
Opening odds: +5000

Ashton Jeanty, RB, Boise State

Take a look at the following stat chart:

Attempts	Yards	Touchdowns
20	267	6
25	192	3
26	259	4
13	186	3
31	217	1
33	128	1

No, it’s not the log of a low-attempt, highly efficient quarterback — that’s Ashton Jeanty’s rushing log. The Boise State product is rewriting history books with a season on pace to set all-time records. Fortunately, Jeanty isn’t hiding in the shadows of southern Idaho. National media is taking notice of this ridiculous season, a key staple in building a Heisman campaign.

The coaching staff is taking notice, too. Notice the uptick in carries in the most recent two games; while Boise State was in a game-long fight at UNLV, it controlled the prior game at Hawaii but kept feeding Jeanty. A Heisman winner in Boise would be a great recruiting tool.

Perhaps the uptick also comes from noting that his top non-QB competitor’s coach is also making efforts to build a Heisman resume. For the first time in a while, we have an exciting race on our hands. The only thing going against Jeanty this year is a relatively weak set of opponents. Unfortunately, the Heisman voting period ends before the start of the College Football Playoff (Nov. 27-Dec. 4), so Jeanty doesn’t have a staple CFP game to cement his case.

How Jeanty Compares To Recent RB Winners

We’ve all seen the graphic — Jeanty projects to beat out Barry Sanders’ 1988 record-setting season at running back. Through seven games, Jeanty already has 1,347 rushing yards — 230 more than the next running back — and 19 total touchdowns. Jeanty has been so dominant that his yards after contact (1,002) rank fourth in the country in total rushing yards. He leads the nation with 65 missed tackles forced and second with 6.42 yards per carry after contact (second, minimum 30 attempts).

So when comparing Jeanty to arguably the greatest running back in both college football and NFL history, Barry Sanders, it’s pretty easy to build the case.

• Remaining opponents: San Diego State, Nevada, at San Jose State, at Wyoming, Oregon State
• Biggest remaining game: Oregon State
• Best performance: 20 rushes, 267 yards, six touchdowns (Week 1 vs. Georgia Southern)
• Projected team wins: 11
• Strength of record: 17th
• Case against: Group of Five program with no marquee wins

Current Heisman odds: Ashton Jeanty +750 on BetMGM
Opening odds: >500-1

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