Heisman Trophy Odds: 5 Criteria To Find Live 2024 College Football Longshots

Betting on Heisman Trophy odds can be a lucrative market with a little bit of know-how and a lot of luck. Typically, preseason favorites don’t win the award; rather, it’s oftentimes longshots that win the Heisman. Since 2010, just one top-two favorite won it (Marcus Mariota, 2014) and zero outright favorites. It’s tough to look at Heisman favorites like Dillon Gabriel, Carson Beck, and Quinn Ewers and say, no thank you.

But history says you should consider.

If you’re looking to bet a longshot for 2024 Heisman odds, here are some things to consider when picking your bet. Scroll to the bottom of this article for complete Heisman Trophy odds for this coming season.

How To Find LIVE LONGSHOTs IN HEISMAN TROPHY ODDS

These trends and metrics are tried and true. In 2022, this article identified Hendon Hooker (+6600 preseason, closed +100 before tearing his ACL). In 2023, we identified Jordan Travis (+1400 preseason, was on track to be a finalist before also tearing his ACL). This year, hopefully, one of our callouts finishes the year healthy with a shot at lifting the trophy.

With 134 FBS teams and 85 scholarship players apiece, there are more Heisman longshots than what’s reasonable to consider right off the bat. The first place to start is whittling down the field into a manageable list using proven qualifiers.

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1. Start With College Football Win Totals

Every Heisman winner since 2010 came from a team with at least nine wins. Of those, only three failed to win 11 games (Jayden Daniels in 2023, Lamar Jackson in 2016, and Robert Griffin III in 2011). Seven appeared in the National Championship game. Team performance historically has proven to be equally important as player performance.

While teams like 2019 LSU and 2010 Auburn came from preseason longshot territory, most championship winners aren’t far off the top of odds boards. Although the shift to the 12-team College Football Playoff expands the list of possible champions, this year’s winner likely doesn’t fall far down the list.

Teams with win totals under 8.5 (juiced over) shouldn’t necessarily be written off, but consider the upside. Take a look at alternate win totals for 10+ wins for reference.

2. Sorry, Small Schools

We haven’t seen a Heisman winner from a school outside the current Power Five conferences since 1963 (Roger Staubach, Navy).

3. Don’t Look For The Next Desmond Howard

The winner will probably be a quarterback. Since 2010, only two non-QBs won the award. In the history of the Heisman Trophy, only one true defensive player won it (Charles Woodson, 1997), and no offensive linemen nor tight ends have won. Only four receivers have won the award ever (most recently DeVonta Smith, 2020). Second-most likely is running back, but only five have won the Heisman since 1997.

While not impossible, it’s statistically fruitless to throw darts at too many non-QBs this preseason.

4. Find Overlooked Elite Offenses

Since 2010, every quarterback winner of the Heisman accounted for at least 44 touchdowns. Of those 12 QBs, 11 accounted for at least 47 and seven crossed the 50-touchdown benchmark, most recently Daniels in 2023.

Only Jameis Winston in 2013 threw double-digit interceptions (10), while eight of those winners had fewer than seven.

In the mid-2000s, dual-threat QBs dominated Heisman odds and voting, with players like Cam Newton, Johnny Manziel, and Lamar Jackson all rushing for about 20 touchdowns each. However, the last four QB Heisman winners have shown to be hyper-efficient passers with completion percentages over 66% and QB ratings of at least 160. Daniels blew those benchmarks out of the water, completing 72% of his passes and achieving a 208 passer rating.

Remember: Voters won’t be analyzing EPA and yards per attempt! The Heisman Trophy is about pop, visibility, and gaudy, yet efficient, numbers.

Of course, we don’t have a list of players’ stats from the upcoming season. Understanding which offenses have produced numbers like this helps. This is also where using advanced metrics comes into play to project who may take the leap forward.

5. Use Advanced Stats To Help Project Breakout Seasons

Expected Points Added (EPA) is a metric that measures how effective and explosive a player is on any given play. It breaks down what value they add to the team. Here are some of the top returning QBs in terms of EPA from a season ago (min. 250 snaps):

• Dillon Gabriel, Oregon (.665)
• Kaidon Salter, Liberty (.647)
• Preston Stone, SMU (.558)
• Kyle McCord, Syracuse (.546)
• Jordan McCloud, Texas State (.529)

Other metrics that point toward efficiency include average depth of target and touchdown rate. Salter and Jalen Milroe top the aDOT among returners and both had a TD rate near or over 10%. Here are the leaders in both combined categories from last season (min. 250 snaps):

• Kaidon Salter, Liberty (14.5 aDOT, 12% TD rate)
• Jalen Milroe, Alabama (13.9, 8.8%)
• Preston Stone, SMU (13.6, 8.1%)

With few high aDOT and ~10% TD rates, let’s take a look at players with exceptionally high adjusted completion rates and high aDOT:

• Dillon Gabriel, Oregon (78.8% adjusted completion, 10.2 aDOT)
• Jalen Milroe, Alabama (74.8%, 13.9)
• Jaxson Dart, Ole Miss (74.5%, 10.5)
• Anthony Colandrea, Virginia (73.6%, 10.3)

HEISMAN TROPHY Contenders with Longshot Odds WHO MAY FIT

First, we have to narrow down our list of Heisman longshot considerations from above. Unfortunately, McCord and Colandrea fail in the win total category, and Salter and McCloud fail to play for a Power Conference team. Salter’s lucrative numbers, though, may keep him around in the discussion, especially if Liberty goes unbeaten again and makes the CFP.

Stone fails to play for a legitimate preseason national contender, as SMU is lined at +30000 to win the national championship and +1100 to make the College Football Playoff.

Gabriel, of course, is the preseason Heisman favorite. His number shortened in mid-summer following a flurry of professional bets backing the Oregon QB.

That leaves us with two names, both on the fringe of the top three:

• Jalen Milroe, Alabama (+1500)
• Jaxson Dart, Ole Miss (+1600)

Other Heisman Longshot Betting Considerations

To make real longshot bets, you have to project some degree of improvement. That could be for the team as a whole or for individual players. Three players present interesting cases, each of which is missing a key component listed above. With these players, you have to project some progression:

• Brady Cook, Missouri (+3300)
• Kyron Drones, Virginia Tech (+10000)
• Garrett Greene, West Virginia (+20000)

Cook is coming off the best season in a decade and beat Ohio State in the Cotton Bowl to finish 11-2. That kind of finish would have gotten Mizzou into the CFP. A repeat performance isn’t unlikely, as Mizzou returns the nation’s top receiver (Luther Burden III) and added transfers to help upkeep the run game and improve the offensive line. However, the Tigers lost multiple NFL players on defense, which is the unit that really solidified Mizzou as a top team last year. Currently, its odds to win 10+ games at FanDuel Sportsbook is lined at +152.

Drones and Greene need a lot more to go right to be in the conversation. Drones and Virginia Tech have been popular futures bets this offseason, with the Hokies odds to make the CFP dropping to +1000.

Greene had the stats to back up the excitement. Last year, he produced a 10.4% big-time throw rate per PFF (best in the country), a 15:4 TD:INT ratio, and a 13.7 aDOT (fourth-best). But the ground game is what could really elevate his season. Greene rushed for 13 TDs (most among QBs), produced eight rushes for 15+ yards (tied with Jayden Daniels for the most among QBs), and came away with just a 5.5% pressure-to-sack ratio. Should he improve significantly in completion rate (62.9% adjusted), Greene could be in the conversation all year long.

Brett’s Preseason Longshot Heisman Bets:

• Jalen Milroe +1500
• Jaxson Dart +1500
• Brady Cook +3500
• Kyron Drones +10000
• Garrett Greene +20000

Best Available Heisman Trophy Odds Across Sportsbooks

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