Hawks-Heat Odds, Picks, Predictions: NBA Play-In Tournament Overreaction?

Written By Eli Hershkovich | Published at April 18, 2025

Before the postseason is officially underway, the 2025 NBA Play-In Tournament concludes on Friday, April 18, with the Miami Heat at the Atlanta Hawks and the Dallas Mavericks at the Memphis Grizzlies. Which teams will lock up the No. 8 seed in their conference playoffs? Let's handicap the odds for both games, including a bet for Hawks vs. Heat.

Click any NBA odds to place a wager. For more offers, we highly recommend checking out the best sportsbook promos.

heat at Hawks odds: spread, moneyline, total

Tyler Herro Odds: Player Props

[metabet_core_side_odds_tile query="nba/tyler_herro/player_132817" size="100%x300" rows=30 site_id="thelines"]

Trae Young Odds: Player Props

[metabet_core_side_odds_tile query="nba/trae_young/player_104938" size="100%x300" rows=30 site_id="thelines"]

hawks vs. heat odds: market overcorrection?

Atlanta opened as a 1.5-point home favorite, but the line has unsurprisingly flipped toward Miami at most shops.

The Hawks made a run or two against the Magic in their first play-in game, yet they were mainly outclassed and surrendered 1.28 points per possession (PPP). Conversely, led by Tyler Herro, the Heat only allowed 0.92 PPP in a wire-to-wire win against the Bulls.

Nevertheless, I'm willing to buy low on Trae Young and Co. after shooting 19% from behind the arc on Tuesday night. To boot, Miami's defense was ultra-productive because its off-ball action picked apart Chicago and limited its transition opportunities in the process. Atlanta is stingier against those sets (43rd percentile on a PPP basis), and its fast-break offense will benefit if it accumulates enough stops.

The Heat rank in the 10th percentile of transition opportunities allowed, a byproduct of Erik Spoelstra's defensive intellect, yet they're below average in efficiency. Water should find its level for the Hawks' marksmen if they can push the pace often.

On Friday, I bet on Hawks +1 (-110 at DraftKings Sportsbook). You can find all my picks on TheLines.com's free sports betting Discord. Head to the #roles server to enroll your mobile device in push notifications.

Good luck with your bets on Hawks vs. Heat odds!

mavericks at grizzlies odds: spread, moneyline, total

Ja Morant Odds: Player Props

[metabet_core_side_odds_tile query="nba/tyler_herro/player_132810" size="100%x300" rows=30 site_id="thelines"]

Anthony Davis Odds: Player Props

[metabet_core_side_odds_tile query="nba/tyler_herro/player_11953" size="100%x300" rows=30 site_id="thelines"]

mavericks at grizzlies odds: ja morant's status

As I mentioned in Wednesday's betting guide, Dallas' market rating seemed slightly off, given its small sample with a healthy Anthony Davis. Even after trouncing the Kings, the market hasn't provided a bump, with Memphis favored by two possessions.

However, the lack of line movement is correlated with Morant's right ankle injury, which transpired late in the third quarter against Golden State. The two-time NBA All-Star stated he will suit up in the Grizzlies' do-or-die contest against the Mavs, but his effectiveness is unknown.

As of this publication, Morant's scoring prop hasn't budged from the usual over/under points.

best sportsbook promos for NBA play-in tournament odds

Sportsbook

Bonus

Features

Bet

Up To $1500 in Bonus Bets Paid Back if your First Bet Does Not Win

Wide coverage of US and international sports
Linked to MGM Rewards loyalty program
Regular odds boosts and promos

Bet Now BetMGM Review

Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER or 1-800-MY-RESET (Available in the US) 877-8-HOPENY or text HOPENY (467369) (NY) 1-800-327-5050 (MA), 1-800-BETS-OFF (IA), 1-800-981-0023 (PR). 21+ only. Please Gamble Responsibly. See BetMGM.com for Terms. First Bet Offer for new customers only (if applicable). Subject to eligibility requirements. Bonus bets are non-withdrawable. In partnership with Kansas Crossing Casino and Hotel. Promotional offers not available in Mississippi, New York, Ontario, or Puerto Rico.

New DraftKings Customers: Spend $5+ Get $150 in Bonus Bets *Paid Within 14 Days

Wide coverage of US and international sports
High-quality iOS and Android apps
Very fast withdrawal times

Bet Now DraftKings Review

GAMBLING PROBLEM? CALL 1-800-GAMBLER or 1-800-MY-RESET, (800) 327-5050 or visit gamblinghelplinema.org (MA). Please Gamble Responsibly. 888-789-7777/visit ccpg.org (CT), or visit www.mdgamblinghelp.org (MD), 1-800-981-0023 (PR). GAMBLING PROBLEM? CALL 1-800-GAMBLER or 1-800-MY-RESET, (800) 327-5050 or visit gamblinghelplinema.org (MA). Please Gamble Responsibly. 888-789-7777/visit ccpg.org (CT), or visit www.mdgamblinghelp.org (MD), 1-800-981-0023 (PR). 21+ and present in most states. (18+ DC/NH/PR/WY). Void in CAN. Eligibility restrictions apply. On behalf of Boot Hill Casino (KS). Pass-thru of per wager tax may apply in IL. 1 per new DraftKings customer. $5+ first-time bet req. Max. $150 issued as non-withdrawable Bonus Bets that expire in 7 days after issuance. Stake removed from payout. Reward issued as $50 in Bonus Bets every 7 days via click-to-claim for 14 days. 7 days = 168hrs. Terms: sportsbook.draftkings.com/promos. Ends 8/23/26 at 11:59 PM ET. Sponsored by DK.

New Users – Bet $5 Get $200 in Bet Reset Tokens for 5 Days

Bet Now FanDuel Review

Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER or 1-800-MY-RESET. Call 1-888-789-7777 or visit ccpg.org/chat (CT). Hope is here. GamblingHelplineMA.org or call (800) 327-5050 for 24/7 support (MA). Visit www.mdgamblinghelp.org (MD). Call 1-877-HOPENY or text HOPENY (467369) (NY). 21+ (18+ DC, IA, KY, WV) only. New users only or text HOPENY (467369) (NY). Casino, First online real money wager only. $5 first deposit required. Min $5 wager required for 5 consecutive days. Bonus issued as non-withdrawable Bet Reset tokens. Refund from token issued as nonwithdrawable bonus bet that expire 7 days after receipt. Max refund $200 per day. Restrictions apply, including token expiration. See full terms at fanduel.com/sportsbook. Call 1-877-770-7867 (LA).

10 x $100 bet match in FanCash

Unique FanCash loyalty program
Variety of bonuses and ongoing promos
Fast, reliable app with live betting and streaming

Bet Now Fanatics Review

Must be 21+. GAMBLING PROBLEM? CALL 1-800-GAMBLER OR CALL 1-800-MY-RESET, www.mdgamblinghelp.org (MD), (800)-327-5050 or gamblinghelplinema.org (MA), Call (877)8-HOPENY or text HOPENY (467369) (NY), (888) 789-7777 or ccpg.org (CT), morethanagame.nc.gov (NC), 1800gambler.net (WV)