Hawks-Heat Odds, Picks, Predictions: NBA Play-In Tournament Overreaction?

Written By Eli Hershkovich | Published at April 18, 2025

Before the postseason is officially underway, the 2025 NBA Play-In Tournament concludes on Friday, April 18, with the Miami Heat at the Atlanta Hawks and the Dallas Mavericks at the Memphis Grizzlies. Which teams will lock up the No. 8 seed in their conference playoffs? Let's handicap the odds for both games, including a bet for Hawks vs. Heat.

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heat at Hawks odds: spread, moneyline, total

Tyler Herro Odds: Player Props

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Trae Young Odds: Player Props

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hawks vs. heat odds: market overcorrection?

Atlanta opened as a 1.5-point home favorite, but the line has unsurprisingly flipped toward Miami at most shops.

The Hawks made a run or two against the Magic in their first play-in game, yet they were mainly outclassed and surrendered 1.28 points per possession (PPP). Conversely, led by Tyler Herro, the Heat only allowed 0.92 PPP in a wire-to-wire win against the Bulls.

Nevertheless, I'm willing to buy low on Trae Young and Co. after shooting 19% from behind the arc on Tuesday night. To boot, Miami's defense was ultra-productive because its off-ball action picked apart Chicago and limited its transition opportunities in the process. Atlanta is stingier against those sets (43rd percentile on a PPP basis), and its fast-break offense will benefit if it accumulates enough stops.

The Heat rank in the 10th percentile of transition opportunities allowed, a byproduct of Erik Spoelstra's defensive intellect, yet they're below average in efficiency. Water should find its level for the Hawks' marksmen if they can push the pace often.

On Friday, I bet on Hawks +1 (-110 at DraftKings Sportsbook). You can find all my picks on TheLines.com's free sports betting Discord. Head to the #roles server to enroll your mobile device in push notifications.

Good luck with your bets on Hawks vs. Heat odds!

mavericks at grizzlies odds: spread, moneyline, total

Ja Morant Odds: Player Props

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Anthony Davis Odds: Player Props

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mavericks at grizzlies odds: ja morant's status

As I mentioned in Wednesday's betting guide, Dallas' market rating seemed slightly off, given its small sample with a healthy Anthony Davis. Even after trouncing the Kings, the market hasn't provided a bump, with Memphis favored by two possessions.

However, the lack of line movement is correlated with Morant's right ankle injury, which transpired late in the third quarter against Golden State. The two-time NBA All-Star stated he will suit up in the Grizzlies' do-or-die contest against the Mavs, but his effectiveness is unknown.

As of this publication, Morant's scoring prop hasn't budged from the usual over/under points.

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