Green Bay Packers Odds: Can Jordan Love Actually Be Better Than 2022 Aaron Rodgers?
The Green Bay Packers have been rocked this offseason by the departure of star quarterback Aaron Rodgers. Packers odds show a betting market skeptical of a bounce-back season. With Rodgers now on the New York Jets, how will new starting quarterback Jordan Love respond, along with weapons like wide receiver Christian Watson and running backs Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon. How will the new look Packers offense operate in 2023? Let’s take a look at the odds from the best sports betting sites and see how Green Bay Packers odds stack up going into the 2023 season.
2022 Ranks by EPA: 11th Overall, 9th Rush, 16th Pass
In some ways, this offense has reason for optimism. Christian Watson and Romeo Doubs are entering their second seasons and Green Bay took two receiving threats in the second round this year. Additionally, the Packers still have the AJ Dillon-Aaron Jones tandem on the ground, and most importantly, Aaron Rodgers wasn’t that good last year. Of the 37 QBs who played more than 200 snaps last season, Rodgers was below average.
23rd in Dropback EPA, 22nd in Success Rate, and 18th in Completion Percentage Above Expected (CPOE), Rodgers was mediocre. Whether it was age or injuries he was playing through is academic for Packers fans at this point. The drop from Rodgers to Jordan Love is the narrative showing a massive decline in market expectation from this point a season ago. In actuality, it’s easy to make the case it won’t be that big of a drop from what Rodgers put on the field in 2022.
More bluntly, Love doesn’t have to be great to be roughly what Rodgers was last year. Could Love be bad? Sure – the one game he started in 2021 wasn’t encouraging, when he went 19-34 for 190 yards with one touchdown and a pick. He’s likely a bottom-third QB this season. The thing is, that’s not much worse than 2022 Aaron Rodgers.
2022 Ranks by EPA: 27th Overall, 31st Rush, 14th Pass
Joe Barry’s defense is similarly primed for optimism, mostly because it was so much worse last year than remembered. The run defense was atrocious, second-last in the league by EPA, and inability to get stops on the ground cost Green Bay. Losing Jarran Reed’s impact will hurt, but they have 2022 and 2023 first-rounders coming on the defensive line.
If those reinforcements can make a difference, then this defense will look a lot better. The last five weeks of the season, the Packers rush defense was better – 15th in the league by EPA – and that could be a sign that they found something that can translate into this season. If the Packers are to have a good season, it’s going to take the run defense being able to hold up, especially given the Packers project to be down in games a lot.
The Packers pass defense was good last year and projects to be so again. There’s been minimal shakeup in the secondary and the Packers should be able to continue their above average pass defense into 2023, assuming health.
Prospects For Green Bay Packers Odds
Earlier this summer, TheLines.com lead NFL writer Mo Nuwwarah also looked into Packers futures. He explains why he’s rolling the dice on Green Bay’s long odds to win the NFC North in what he sees as a wide open division.
As for me, Green Bay Packers odds are clearly inflated from overrating the loss of Aaron Rodgers. If the drop from Rodgers to Jordan Love is relatively small (or perhaps even an improvement), then the impacts on the Packers should be similarly small. Both to win the division () and to make the playoff odds () make sense, given the Packers’ strong defense and the paucity of high-end NFC talent.
Within the NFC North, the Vikings are an obvious regression candidate and likely going to lose substantially more games this year. The Bears, while young and projected to improve, did only win 3 games last year on route to the number 1 overall pick. And while the Lions performance last year was impressive, Jared Goff was 31st in Dropback EPA in 2021. The notion that he couldn’t return to that form at any moment lessens the Lions’ roar considerably.
Additionally, the Packers get to play the NFC South this year, where all four teams project to win under 10 games, based on current market odds. Green Bay might not be week of favorites against all four of those teams, but none project to be wildly better than the Packers, giving them a lot of chances to win.
It’s trite to say that a lot of this comes down to whether Jordan Love is any good but it’s really what this comes down to. The defense should be better, especially with Joe Barry finally finding some way to stop the run down the stretch of 2022. If the Packers can be just league average in run defense – which they were the final five weeks of 2022 – they will be a better team than they were in 2022.
Rodgers’ departure is a symbolic loss for the Packers, and for the fanbase. But it’s not much of an on field loss in 2023 with how badly he played in 2022. There’s lots of reason for optimism in Wisconsin, and the Packers have real upside in 2023 NFL betting odds.
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