Packers Odds: Evaluating Green Bay’s 2023 Betting Markets
Expected to be one of the top contenders from the NFC in 2022, Green Bay instead took a massive step backward, only contending for the final playoff spot in Week 18 but falling short. An expectedly tumultuous offseason followed, with Aaron Rodgers (finally) walking out the door, leaving the storied franchise to turn the page at QB for the first time in more than a decade. To divine what 2023 has in store, we’ll take a look at Green Bay Packers odds and see whether something might be worth a bet.
Notable Packers Offseason Moves
We’ll start with changes the Packers roster has undergone heading to the 2023 season. Keep in mind that minor moves will still occur. Useful veterans will become available following releases from other teams, and key injuries will crop up both to the Packers and their opponents. But, here’s where things stand as of mid-June.
- Key additions: WR Jayden Reed, TE Luke Musgrave, S Rudy Ford, S Tarvarius Moore, EDGE Lukas Van Ness, K Anders Carlson
- Key losses: QB Aaron Rodgers, WR Allen Lazard, WR Randall Cobb, TE Robert Tonyan, EDGE Dean Lowry, DT Jarran Reed, S Adrian Amos, K Mason Crosby
Obviously, the Packers experienced the most high-profile singe player move of the offseason with franchise legend Rodgers heading to the New York Jets via trade. Longtime understudy Jordan Love takes over, coming in with minimal game experience. He has taken just 157 NFL snaps. After looking headed to Bustville in his ugly 2021 cameo in Kansas City, Love looked notably improved in a couple of appearances in relief work during 2022. Whether that minuscule sample means the light has come on for the former first-rounder remains to be seen.
Elsewhere, things are quite stable. A strong offensive line returns for another go. The wide receiver corps lost some vets, but they weren’t likely to play big roles anyway with a young crop of recent draftees taking over.
Luke Musgrave takes over at tight end in a similar makeover to what the receiving corps has undergone. A second-round pick, he should ultimately bring an upgrade, but TE is notoriously difficult to project due to the massive jump in difficulty playing at the pro level.
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It’s much the same on defense, with Green Bay essentially bringing the band back. The only changes involve likely fungible starters at EDGE and S.
What exactly that means is anyone’s guess. The unit got shredded to the tune of 27th in EPA/play allowed. On its face, that appears to indicate another tough year ahead.
However, the Packers entered 2022 widely considered to have a top-10 defense. Certainly, losing ace pass rusher Rashan Gary to a torn ACL hurt, and his return looms as a potential variable. But, the talent level as a whole should have supported a far better showing.
The Packers have a very solid trio of corners in Jaire Alexander, Rasul Douglas and Eric Stokes. Between that and a pass rush with plenty of talent, they should present a challenge for opposing passing games. But, improvement against the run will be a must (31st in Rush Success Rate).
Packers Schedule And Odds For Every Game
Early betting markets from DraftKings Sportsbook can give us a look at what to expect for the Packers’ game-to-game chances of victory. These numbers will obviously change massively. But, they’re still a useful tool.
|Week||Opponent||Packers Spread||Game Notes|
|4||Detroit||+1.5||Thursday Night Football|
|5||@ Las Vegas||+1.5||Monday Night Football; Extra rest following TNF|
|7||@ Denver||+3.5||Extra rest following bye|
|13||Kansas City||+5.5||Sunday Night Football; Extra rest following TNF|
|14||@ New York Giants||+2.5||Monday Night Football|
|15||Tampa Bay||+1.5||Short rest following MNF|
|17||@ Minnesota||+2.5||Sunday Night Football|
Converting these spreads to moneylines, one comes up with approximately 7.5 projected market wins for the Packers.
That tracks almost exactly with the 7.5 opener on Packers win total odds. Early action appears to have come in on the over, though, as the juice has flipped. The number remains but many books have made the over the more expensive side.
Packers Super Bowl odds opened shorter than the current number. However, most of that can likely be attributed to Aaron Rodgers. Where the market was uncertain about Rodgers’ future with the team when numbers opened, that situation has now settled with a largely unproven QB taking the reins. Hence, the Packers are now one of the longer shots to win the Super Bowl.
Packers Key Advanced Stats, Ranks In 2022
|Stat||Packers Value (League Rank)|
|Offense DVOA||+6.7% (11)|
|Defense DVOA||+2.6% (20)|
|Special Teams DVOA||-0.5% (17)|
|Rush Offense EPA/Play||-0.009 (9)|
|Rush Defense EPA/Play||+0.044 (31)|
|Pass Offense EPA/Play||+0.035 (16)|
|Pass Defense EPA/Play||+0.024 (14)|
Possible Offseason Bet On Packers Odds For 2023
I’d like to bring up a market I haven’t explicitly referenced, but one in which I think bettors may find value for 2023. NFC North odds project as one of the weaker yet more balanced divisions for the coming season. While the Lions have opened as the favorites, there’s no clear top dog here, with every team sporting underdog odds against the field.
While I understand the sentiment behind the Lions — they actually had the best NFC North point differential in 2022 despite finishing four games back — I’m a bit skeptical of them. They had a borderline elite passing offense last year. Yes, the offensive line looks strong, and the WR pairing should be strong once Jameson Williams return from suspension. But, that’s going to be tough to repeat with a below-average QB in Jared Goff. On defense, they could be solid, but they’re very thin. Inevitable injuries could alter the talent level fast there.
Minnesota’s good fortune last year has been well-documented. They have a weak defense on paper, a mediocre offensive line, and Kirk Cousins led an incredible eight game-winning drives.
Chicago has moved in the right direction but it remains early in that rebuild. Justin Fields might be good but he also might be very bad. Rookies are penciled in all over the place on the defensive two-deep and there’s still no real pass rush. Until Fields shows real progress as a passer, I’m having a hard time getting excited about Chicago, and I was probably one of his biggest proponents as a prospect.
All of these teams look flawed in various ways, some more so than others. Ultimately, I think they all have a real shot to win the division.
Packers As a Divisional Longshot Play?
If I think every team has a real chance, I’m naturally intrigued by anyone at long odds. And the Packers sit at , which definitely qualifies as long when we’re talking about winning a four-team division without a dominant favorite.
Green Bay arguably has the most talented team in the division. Certainly, you’d have to rank them no lower than second after Detroit.
Obviously, the floor here is quite low. Jordan Love could still be a very bad quarterback. His range of outcomes goes from benched in the first few weeks to fringe MVP candidate. While I’ve been bearish on him since that KC game, I found myself intrigued by his showing against a very strong Eagles defense last year. If the coaching staff has finally made progress teaching him football, Green Bay should be in the hunt in this weak division.
The defense is loaded with talent. I just wish they had a better coordinator, as I was unimpressed with Joe Barry’s work last year and was a bit surprised he was brought back.
I just think this Packers roster stacks up with anyone in the division, and +500 seems way too long. Generally, I don’t place NFL futures this early in the cycle, but I expect to bet Green Bay at anything better than +350 to win the NFC North.
TheLines Podcast Agrees on Packers Futures
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