2022 Governor Election Odds: Where Is The Betting Value In State Races?

Written By Evan Scrimshaw on November 15, 2021
2022 governor election odds

With the Sunday release of yet another terrible poll for Democrats, it’s a good time to check in on some interesting 2022 Governor election odds across America, and figure out where there might be some line value.

The latest poll comes from ABC/Washington Post. It shows a Joe Biden approval rating at 41%, and the GOP up 10% on the Generic Congressional Ballot. The conversation has shifted to just how bad 2022 can get for Democrats, and how money can be made as the poll moves markets.

Click on the odds below to trade these prices now legally in the United States.

Wisconsin: 2022 Governor Election Odds

PartyNov. 2 PriceEquivalent Odds
Democratic$0.36+178
Republican$0.66-194

Here the GOP are 67-cent favorites for reasons that make sense – kind of. Wisconsin Democrats are much more dependent on good – or at least, not horrible – rural results than they are in, say, Georgia. The 2021 Election Day results in Virginia showed that assuming that Trump’s numbers in these places are unlikely to be exceeded is wrong.

Wisconsin Republicans are also susceptible to slippage, as they do much better in suburban Milwaukee than most northern suburbs, a trend that is in reverse these days. Whether or not the GOP can hold the suburbs while making a push for the rural areas is going to be key.

The other complicating factor is incumbency, as Democrats have an incumbent in Tony Evers. Whether Evers is enough to overturn the state’s rightward trend, and national drag, is unclear, but as a general rule, taking a non-scandal plagued incumbent at a 36 cent price is generally a smart move.

Pennsylvania: 2022 Governor Election Odds

PartyNov. 2 PriceEquivalent Odds
Democratic$0.49+104
Republican$0.53-113

Taking Evers in Wisconsin at that price is an even smarter bet when you look at Pennsylvania, where Democrats are 49 cents to hold this race without an incumbent, despite two states that are basically as Democratic as each other.

Yes, Democrats are highly likely to nominate Josh Shapiro, who has performed well electorally in his post as Attorney General, but he is not an incumbent Governor, and there’s no way of knowing how he’ll perform as a leader of a statewide ticket.

The GOP nominee is highly uncertain at this point, but whoever it is will be attempting to ride a wave of national discontent and ever-increasing rural margins to victory, and it is pretty likely they’ll be able to do so – especially against a less-tested entity like Shapiro.

Nevada: 2022 Governor Election Odds

PartyNov. 2 PriceEquivalent Odds
Democratic$0.43+133
Republican$0.57-133

We’ll start with the GOP primary in Nevada, where Joe Lombardo is the sizable underdog in the primary against former US Senator Dean Heller, but where the most recent poll has him above Heller by 18.

Yes, that poll was an internal poll, but Lombardo’s pollster is one of the best in the state, and has the credibility of any Nevada watchers. At 30 cents, he’s probably the favorite at this point, especially when you consider Heller’s position as a candidate for nobody. Heller is too moderate to excite Trumpian Republicans, but too Trump friendly from his time in the Senate to excite moderates.

Lombardo, on the other hand, is the current Sheriff of Clark County, and is able to tout a tough-on-crime message – and he lives in the major population center, where 70% of the state lives. He’s got less baggage than Heller, and is ex-military – a trait often useful in primaries.

In the General Election, both Lombardo or Heller would be underdogs to Democratic incumbent Steve Sisolak, solely because of the state they’re in. Nevada has seen Democrats overcome bad national environments before, and the combination of Sisolak getting to run with the incumbent Hispanic Democratic Senator means that any slippage there will be contained.

Nevada is a very immovable state – it generally votes for Democrats by a narrow margin, even in wave years. Harry Reid squeaked out a win in 2010 despite a horrible environment for Democrats, and in 2018, Democratic margins didn’t get out of hand. Its immovability means that it is less likely to be shocked by the national mood, and Democrats have a better chance of hanging on against the tide.

Arizona: 2022 Governor Election Odds

PartyNov. 2 PriceEquivalent Odds
Democratic$0.38+163
Republican$0.65-186

One state where the tide could lift GOP prospects is Arizona, where the GOP are likely to nominate the Trump-endorsed Kari Lake against Democratic Secretary Of State Katie Hobbes. Hobbes is a good Democratic candidate, but Arizona was still only won very, very narrowly in 2020 by Biden, and the national environment, even if it recovers, is highly unlikely to get to Biden levels.

The case for Democrats here is that Hobbes is a good candidate and Lake is an election conspiracy theorist, and Arizona is a state where half of the population lives in Maricopa County, where Phoenix is. Mark Kelly’s Senate run is likely to help Hobbes, but Arizonans have shown no problem splitting tickets, electing a GOP Governor comfortably and sending Kyrsten Sinema to the Senate in 2018.

If the national environment is even a tie, the Arizona GOP should comfortably hold the Governorship, and 65 cents is not nearly a steep enough price.

Minnesota: 2022 Governor Election Odds

PartyNov. 2 PriceEquivalent Odds
Democratic$0.59-144
Republican$0.43+133

Minnesota is a state which Republicans would like to one day be able to flip, but 2020 saw it move substantially left, even as the states near it didn’t. The GOP couldn’t even win this state in the red wave of 2010, and Democrats have an incumbent here, and have little reason to think Tim Walz is in serious trouble. The Democratic price is an overreaction, and should be taken advantage of.

Maine

PartyNov. 2 PriceEquivalent Odds
Democratic$0.65-186
Republican$0.35+186

This state is weirdly one where the GOP prices haven’t risen wildly in the aftermath of the Virginia win, despite the fact it might be right up the alley of the GOP. Democrat Janet Mills is probably rightly the favorite, but she is drawing a credible GOP contender in former Governor Paul LePage.

LePage is seen as a crank by many on the left for his tenure in office, but he did win a state that last elected a Republican for President in 1988. Democrats should also be reminded that Susan Collins was widely expected to lose her Senate seat last year, before winning comfortably. Residual down ballot Republican sympathy can’t be undersold, and LePage is in with a real shot.

Florida

Ron DeSantis is somehow only 82 cents to win again (-456 odds). Florida is trending right, Democrats last won the Governorship of Florida in 1994, and Democrats couldn’t even beat a non-incumbent in a blue year. To think they’ll beat an incumbent in a neutral, let alone red year, is absurd.

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