Gonzaga vs UCLA Final Four Odds — NCAA Tournament 2021

Posted By Staff on April 1, 2021

A spot in the NCAA Tournament National Championship is on the line as the No. 1 seed Gonzaga Bulldogs (26-0) and the No. 11 seed UCLA Bruins (17-9) square off on Saturday at 8:34 PM ET at Lucas Oil Stadium (airing on CBS). Gonzaga is a favorite to survive and advance in this Final Four matchup.

The betting insights in this article reflect betting data from DraftKings as of April 1, 2021, 12:10 AM ET. See table below for current betting odds and CLICK HERE to bet at DraftKings Sportsbook.

Betting Odds

Gonzaga vs. UCLA Game Matchup

This tournament may prove no team can match Gonzaga in its quest to become the first undefeated champion since Indiana in 1976. The sportsbooks clearly do not believe UCLA will be the team to do it, installing Gonzaga as a 14-point favorite, the largest round of four favorite on record. The next largest favorite in the national semifinal was Duke as an 11-point favorite against Michigan State in 1999.

There simply is no offensive weakness for Gonzaga. They are the best two-point percentage offense in the country. Not even USC’s top-ranked and all-time great two-point percentage defense could slow down the Bulldogs. The Zags shot 58% from inside the arc in the Elite 8.

Leading scorers Jalen Suggs, Drew Timme and Corey Kispert all shoot at least 58% on two-pointers and are above 30% on three-point attempts. Fellow starter Joel Ayayi also shoots 39% from three. As a team, the Zags shoot 74% on free throws.

Gonzaga is even more efficient this season than Mark Few’s last few teams that also led the nation in offensive efficiency.

For UCLA to pull a miracle upset as an enormous underdog, it may need to increase its three-point volume. That’s exactly what the Bruins did in the Sweet 16 to help knock off 2-seed Alabama, but they regressed in the Elite 8 against 1-seed Michigan, only shooting 23% from outside.

When UCLA has shot the three, it’s been at a high clip. The Bruins rank 44th in that area, shooting 37%. The problem is UCLA ranks 300th in percentage of field goal attempts from the three-point line. The volume of outside attempts is generally low.

To hang with a historically good offense, the last remaining hope for the PAC-12 better ratchet up its outside attempts.

Gonzaga Betting Information

  • The Bulldogs have covered the spread more often than not this season, earning a record ATS of 15-12-2.
  • The Bulldogs have a losing record against the spread when favored by at least 14 points, going 10-11-1 this season.
  • In 51.7% of its games this season (15/29), Gonzaga and its opponents have outscored the set over/under.
  • In their last game, the Bulldogs got a team-high 23 points from Drew Timme on the way to an 85-66 win over USC on Tuesday. They were favored by 8.5 points and covered the spread, and the teams combined to score 151 points to go under the 152 point total.

Against the Spread (ATS) records are only reflective of games that had odds on them.

Gonzaga Players to Watch

Drew Timme 30 19.0 7.2 2.3 0.7 0.7 0.2
Corey Kispert 30 18.9 5.0 1.7 0.9 0.4 2.9
Jalen Suggs 28 14.0 5.5 4.5 1.9 0.3 1.1
Joel Ayayi 30 11.9 7.1 2.8 1.1 0.2 1.2
Andrew Nembhard 30 9.1 2.4 4.3 1.1 0.1 1.0
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UCLA Betting Information

  • UCLA has outperformed the spread so far this season with a record ATS of 16-14.
  • When they play as at least a 14-point underdog, the Bruins manage an even 1-1 record against the spread.
  • 43.3% of UCLA’s 30 games this season have missed the over/under.
  • The Bruins knocked off Michigan 51-49 and covered the spread as 6.5-point underdogs, while going under the 137 point total in their most recent game on Tuesday. Johnny Juzang put up a team-high 28 points in the victory.

Against the Spread (ATS) records are only reflective of games that had odds on them.

UCLA Players to Watch

Johnny Juzang 26 15.5 4.0 1.6 0.7 0.3 2.0
Jaime Jaquez Jr. 31 12.1 6.1 1.6 1.2 0.7 1.1
Jules Bernard 31 10.5 5.2 1.6 0.5 0.2 1.2
Tyger Campbell 31 10.2 2.1 5.3 1.1 0.0 0.5
Cody Riley 30 9.8 5.2 1.2 0.4 0.7 0.0

Total Facts

  • In Gonzaga’s matchups this season, the Bulldogs and their opponents have eclipsed Saturday’s total of 145.5 points 26 times (86.7% of opportunities).
  • In UCLA’s games this season, the competing teams combined for a higher point total than Saturday’s matchup over/under in 12 out of 31 matchups (38.7%).
  • The total for the game of 145.5 is 19.0 points fewer than the combined points per game averages for the Bulldogs (91.6 points per game) and the Bruins (72.9 points per game).
  • This game’s over/under is 9.4 more points than the 136.1 these two teams combine to allow per game in 2020-21.
  • On average, the Bulldogs have seen a 160.1 over/under in their games this season, 14.6 more points than the over/under in this contest.
  • The over/under for this contest is 5.0 points more than the average over/under in Bruins games this season (140.5 points).

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