BMW Championship Picks and Odds for 2026: FedEx Cup Playoffs

The FedEx Cup Playoffs are winding down, and it's time to make some BMW Championship picks! The world's best 50 golfers will battle at Bellerive Country Club in Missouri this week. Let's break down the BMW Championship odds and find some golf bets that make sense!

BMW Championship Picks: Who Wins at Bellerive?

I'm targeting the "Without Scottie Scheffler" market this week. Patrick Cantlay is the most frustrating player on my card, but he is also my favorite of these BMW Championship picks. The wins have not shown up lately, yet the ball-striking has been incredible.

According to Data Golf, Cantlay gained 1.71 true strokes on approach at the FedEx St. Jude Championship and 1.69 at the Rocket Classic in his previous start. Those are outrageous numbers, and he has posted plenty of spike-iron weeks this season. That's what should give him a shot to win this week.

It's been a while since we've seen a monster putting week from him, but in my opinion, putting is the most volatile facet of a golfer's game. Cantlay has had only one real spike putting week this season, but he's been positive in that department compared to the field in each of his last four starts. We just need a little more, and I think that's in the range of outcomes, as bentgrass is his best surface.

Cantlay has also been a BMW Championship machine. In nine starts since 2017, Cantlay owns two wins, a solo second, a T9, and two more top-15 finishes. Two of his eight PGA TOUR wins came at this event. It's crazy how well he's played at the BMW Championships throughout the years because this event switches venues regularly.

Best Bet: Patrick Cantlay Winner Without Scottie Scheffler DraftKings, +2250

BMW Championship Best Bet: Michael Thorbjornsen

Michael Thorbjornsen is more of a splash play. He has the length to handle Bellerive, and he has gained accuracy relative to the field in each of his last five appearances.

Thorbjornsen has shown he can compete in stronger fields, posting a T3 at the WM Phoenix Open and a T7 at the Scottish Open. He also won the Rocket Classic earlier this season.

The one concern is that we have not consistently seen a huge spike on approach or on the greens this season. Still, the length, accuracy trend, and condensed field make him interesting at these BMW Championship odds. Golf betting markets can move quickly, so checking multiple sports betting apps for the best price is worthwhile before placing a wager.

Best Bet: Michael Thorbjornsen Winner Without Scottie Scheffler DraftKings, +4000

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BMW Championship Prediction: Michael Brennan

Michael Brennan is another high-upside young bomber. He is less accurate than Thorbjornsen, but his driving distance is extremely appealing at Bellerive. He has also gained true strokes putting in each of his last four appearances.

That stretch includes a T24, a T15, a win at the Wyndham Championship, and a T42 last week at the FedEx St. Jude Championship. If Brennan finds a positive outlier week in terms of driving accuracy, he has the length and approach game to make a real run.

Best Bet: Michael Brennan Winner Without Scottie Scheffler DraftKings, +4200

BMW Championship Long Shot: Justin Rose

Justin Rose is my favorite longer shot among these BMW Championship picks. He has already won at the Farmers Insurance Open this season, and he continues to show up in major events: T13 at THE PLAYERS Championship, T3 at the Masters, T10 at the PGA Championship, T12 at the Memorial, and T11 at the U.S. Open.

Rose struggled for three rounds at the FedEx St. Jude, then fired a Sunday 64. He also gained on approach and has gained strokes putting in four straight events.

At this stage of his career, Rose is a big-game hunter with real winning upside. Check out current sportsbook promos before getting involved with the tournament this week.

Best Bet: Justin Rose Winner Without Scottie Scheffler DraftKings, +5300

I'd suggest scaling back unit size during the FedEx Cup Playoffs because the overall value isn't great. Good luck, and let’s cash some BMW Championship bets this week!