Golf Odds: 2 Vegas Oddsmakers Discuss PGA Championship Markets

Written By Eli Hershkovich on May 17, 2022 - Last Updated on May 18, 2022
Golf Odds

As the PGA Championship inches closer, I spoke with Jeff Davis and Jeff Sherman — two of the most knowledgable bookmakers in the sports betting industry — to evaluate the golf odds for the second major of the season. They reveal the biggest liabilities to their books, including Scottie Scheffler and Tiger Woods, as well as golfers who are personally peaking their interest.

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Will Scottie Scheffler Stay Scorching Hot?

After winning the 2022 Masters, Scheffler () is the co-favorite with John Rahm at a handful of sportsbooks to win the PGA Championship. Sherman, the Westgate SuperBook vice president of risk management and golf oddsmaker, noted that the 25-year-old phenom leads the way in ticket count and the overall handle among outright golf odds at Westgate.

But before emerging victorious in four tournaments over his last eight events since February, Sheffler was priced at roughly +4000 to win this major. Hence, Sherman doesn’t see the rationale behind running to the window now for a Scheffler ticket.

“From a market standpoint, Scheffler is correctly priced,” Sherman said. “There are 156 golfers (in the PGA Championship field). The Masters has (around) 90 golfers, so there’s more of an opportunity for chaos at the top.”

Davis, the golf and NHL bookmaker for Circa Sports, added that while there’s hype around Scheffler to make a Woods-like run this decade, there are roughly 15 other top-tier golfers. That wasn’t the case during Woods’ prime.

Although that doesn’t take away from Scheffler’s prowess within a stout field, Davis is more attracted to Rahm’s price tag (). Davis recognizes that the Spaniard’s putter went cold during a trio of tournaments earlier in the year, in which he finished outside of the top 20 in two of them. Rahm did win the Mexico Championship on May 1 in a weaker field as a single-digit favorite.

“He was around 7-to-1 or 8-to-1 in almost every event in the last year, and no one’s interested now,” he said. “This course figures to be really difficult, so putting certainly matters less. I bet him 15-to-1. We’re currently 13-to-1, and there’s a negative percent chance we’re going over that number. The anti-Rahm sentiment doesn’t make sense to me.”

Public Bettors Harmonious Towards Tiger

Both Sherman and Davis’ sportsbooks, respectively, have witnessed an abundance of Woods love. Across mobile sportsbooks, his best available price is (). At the Westgate SuperBook, the 41-year-old is the biggest outright liability despite sitting as high as 80-1. The sportsbook’s largest wager on Woods to win the PGA Championship is a $1,111 bet.

Woods tallied an opening 71 at the 2022 Masters, participating in his first competitive round after his Feb. 2021 car accident that almost prompted the amputation of his right leg.

Moreover, Sherman opened a Rickie Fowler vs. Woods matchup at Fowler -155, yet public bettors quickly moved it 45 cents down to a pick’em. This move represents the Westgate’s most sizable golf odds shift for a PGA Championship matchup.

Over at Circa Sports, Davis set Woods at 125-1 two days after the Masters. Despite bettors dipping his odds to 86-1, Davis raised it to 95-1 on Tuesday after plucking half of a percentage point on the overall outright hold.

“If anyone watched him attempt to walk in the final round of The Masters, I find it hard to believe that four to five weeks later, this guy is going to win the PGA Championship,” Davis said. “It was a hard watch. I’d be very surprised if Tiger doesn’t close triple digits on our board.”

Finding Value Down The Golf Odds Board

As far as Sherman’s PGA Championship betting card, he considers this event to be more be in the realm of a weekly tournament — rather than a major. Therefore, he’s bet golfers who’ve recently sharpened things up, like:

  • Patrick Cantlay ()
  • Xander Schauffele ()
  • Matthew Fitzpatrick ()
  • Joaquin Niemann ()
  • Aaron Wise ()

“Beyond the difficult setup, it doesn’t hold the same prestige as other majors,” Sherman said. “These guys should all be in a decent position going towards the greens. The greens are small and have runoff on them, so approach shots are going to be the vital aspect of the tournament. That’s where a majority of golfers are going to be challenged.”

Another notable name further down the board is Cameron Young (), whose price was slashed considerably at Circa. Davis detailed that Young could attract a fair amount of interest in the derivative and matchup markets, too.

Continue the discussion in our Discord betting chat, where bettors discuss all of their favorite PGA Championship wagers. You can also follow TheLines on Twitter.

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Eli Hershkovich Avatar
Written by
Eli Hershkovich

Eli Hershkovich is a lead sports betting writer with TheLines and Catena Media, formerly with Audacy and The Action Network. His goal is to provide you with data and information to lead you to winning bets. Eli is an avid college basketball gambler — among many other sports — and still hasn't forgiven Virginia for ruining his 2018-2019 Texas Tech futures.

View all posts by Eli Hershkovich