Golf DFS Picks: 4 Longshots & PGA Tour Sleepers For Valero Texas Open

It’s the final week of the year before the Masters kicks off. As tempting as it is to look ahead, the task is to build up our bankroll for Masters odds via the 2025 Valero Texas Open at TPC San Antonio. With Scottie Scheffler and Rory McIlroy absent this week, sleeper golf DFS picks have a fighting chance with one last opportunity to punch their ticket to Augusta.

Three of the last six winners of the Valero Texas Open have won at 200-1 opening odds. So, with one final spot in the field at Augusta up for grabs for the winner, it’s a great week to reach back for some longshot outright bets.

Let’s get to our 2025 Valero Texas Open longshots and sleepers for your DFS lineups and betting cards. Click on the odds anywhere below to bet now on the best available prices in your state. 

TheLines is partnering with Underdog Fantasy this season. Create a new account on the Underdog Fantasy app and sign up with promo code THELINES to get up to a $250 deposit match on your first deposit. Underdog snake drafts include PGA Tour contests that strip away the complexity of traditional DFS lineup-making. John’s golf picks may provide valuable sleepers for your Underdog golf drafts.

2025 Valero Texas Open ODDS

If you want to add sportsbook bets to your golf DFS picks this week, compare the odds below. You can shop the best odds at sports betting sites and sports betting apps for PGA Tour sleepers and more highly touted players using the pulldown menu in the top left. Best of luck if you choose to bet on these golf DFS picks! Click to bet below.

GOLF DFS CHEAT SHEET For Underdog Drafts

TheLines is partnering with Underdog Fantasy this season. Create a new account on the Underdog Fantasy app and sign up with sportsbook promo code “THELINES” to get up to a $250 first-deposit match.

2025 Valero Texas Open Underdog Fantasy Draft Rankings

Underdog snake drafts include Valero Texas Open contests that strip away the complexity of traditional DFS lineup-making. John’s golf DFS picks may provide valuable sleepers for your Underdog golf drafts. These rankings and picks can also be applied to DraftKings and FanDuel golf DFS.

Tier 1

Tommy Fleetwood
Hideki Matsuyama
Ludvig Aberg

Tier 2

Corey Conners
Daniel Berger
Jordan Spieth
Tony Finau

Tier 3

Bud Cauley
Maverick McNealy
Denny McCarthy
Akshay Bhatia
Jake Knapp
Sam Stevens

Tier 4

Lee Hodges
Alex Smalley
Harry Hall
Beau Hossler
Cameron Young
Matt Kuchar

Tier 5

Charley Hoffman
Chan Kim
Gary Woodland
Max Homa

FINDING VALUE IN GOLF DFS PICKS: Valero TEXAS OPEN

To identify “value” any given week on the PGA Tour, I find it’s best first to understand the consensus key stat profile, then take a stance on the elements of the tournament that may go overlooked. At the Valero Texas Open, Recent Form, Course History, and SG: Ball Striking are consensus key areas in each player’s price.

From a sleeper perspective, I will emphasize the importance of Comp Course History at similar Texas-style venues, Driving Accuracy, and Bogey Avoidance as key areas to differentiate my player pool and find value for this week’s tournament.

Below, find my favorite golf DFS picks and longshots for the 2025 Valero Texas Open. Stats were pulled across the last 36 rounds unless otherwise noted. Each player is listed with the best price in Valero Texas Open odds.

Valero Texas Open Course Specs

Read my Valero Texas Open odds preview (linked above) for a deeper dive into the course. 

Alex Smalley

Smalley is already off to the best start of his four-year career on TOUR. He’s posted five top 20s and has averaged positive strokes gained across the four major categories over his first nine starts of the season. His ability to gain with his distance, accuracy, and short game draws me to Smalley on a venue like TPC San Antonio. While there are many ways to score at this venue, controlled ball-strikers with above-average distance and a reliable short game have typically managed to separate.

Smalley ranks No. 12 in my model, a credit to his recent form over the last 36 rounds (No. 2), short game (No. 3 SG: ARG), and driving ability (No. 6 SG: OTT). A great player in the wind (No. 22 SG: TOT in Windy Conditions), Smalley seems poised for a breakout at TPC San Antonio this week.

Tom Hoge

I’ve already penciled in Tom Hoge on my FRL card as Aaron Rai’s auto-bet understudy. But the more I look into him this week, the more I’m convinced he can hang around for all four days. When Hoge last played, he made a blazing charge at THE PLAYERS, finishing T3 and leading the field in SG: APP. He gained over 10 strokes on approach for the week at TPC Sawgrass, the best performance of his career.

The TCU Horned Frog has had his fair share of success playing in Texas. He boasts two top-12 finishes at this event over his last five appearances. Ranking No. 3 in the field in SG: APP may be enough to keep him in contention for the week if he can keep the ball in play off the tee at TPC San Antonio.

• Join TheLines.com’s free sports betting Discord — with over 5,000 community members and our staff sharing bets daily.

Cameron Young

Justifying why “this time will be different” backing Cameron Young never feels good. We all know he is one of TOUR’s most talented ball strikers. And while he’s prone to fall into some head-scratching slumps, it’s still hard to ignore the resume of someone with 13 top-five finishes since 2022.

The signals are there for Young this week. He ranks No. 8 in Comp Course History. Perhaps he needed the TGL season to end before he could recalibrate inside the ropes. He did get off to a hot start to begin the season, picking up top-12 finishes at the Sentry and WM Phoenix Open to start the year.

Like Viktor Hovland at the Valspar Championship, this is a “bet the number” spot for me on Young beyond the 100-1 outright odds mark. After missing his last four cuts, he also makes for an appealing golf DFS play this week at expected low ownership.

Joel Dahmen

After successfully cashing a top-20 placement bet on Joel Dahmen last week, we are returning for more at the same price. Dahmen continues to excel in Texas and on wind-exposed courses in general. These setups tend to reward the most consistent ball-strikers in the field. In that regard, Dahmen ranks in the top 10 in SG: Ball Striking, SG: APP, and Driving Accuracy.

Unlike Memorial Park, you cannot spray the ball off the tee at The Oaks Course at TPC San Antonio. That penalty for wayward drives will reward a player like Dahmen this week. He’ll be able to generate ample scoring opportunities from the fairways here.

Best of luck if you bet or play my golf DFS picks for the 2025 Valero Texas Open!

Latest Golf Betting News