Golf Major DFS Picks: 4 Longshots & PGA TOUR Sleepers For 2024 U.S. Open

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Written By John Haslbauer | Last Updated
golf dfs picks

The U.S. Open content keeps on flowing in with 2024 U.S. Open sleepers and golf DFS picks. Traditionally, the U.S. Open has produced a very predictable and one-dimensional leaderboard. In-form bombers, who are also elite ball-strikers, have consistently risen to the top.

And yet, the list of some recent U.S. Open winners — Wyndham Clark, Matt Fitzpatrick, Gary Woodland — opens the door for non-obvious sleepers, too. At Pinehurst No. 2, it will take a very different formula to rise up the leaderboard, as premium skillsets of driving distance and ball-striking go by the wayside in favor of driving accuracy and short game.

Pinehurst No. 2’s firm conditions make it extremely susceptible to randomness, as it only takes one bad or unpredictable bounce to turn a perfectly struck ball into a possible bogey. When greens in regulation go down and the importance of short game increases, that tells us to chase some longshots.

So, with some help from Underdog Fantasy, let’s get to our 2024 U.S. Open longshots and golf DFS picks for your Fantasy lineups and betting cards. Click on odds anywhere below to bet now on the best available prices in your state. 

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U.S. Open Underdog Fantasy Draft Tiers

Underdog snake drafts include U.S. Open contests that strip away the complexity of traditional DFS lineup-making. John’s golf DFS picks may provide valuable sleepers for your Underdog golf drafts.

Tier 1

Scottie Scheffler
Xander Schauffele
Rory McIlroy

Tier 2

Tommy Fleetwood
Joaquin Niemann
Cameron Smith
Collin Morikawa
Brooks Koepka

Tier 3

Sahith Theegala
Justin Thomas
Sam Burns
Tom Kim
Hideki Matsuyama
Alex Noren

Tier 4

Tyrell Hatton
Sungjae Im
Si Woo Kim

Tier 5

Billy Horschel
Beau Hossler
Aaron Rai
Denny McCarthy
Harris English

FINDING VALUE IN GOLF DFS PICKS: u.s. open

To identify “value” any given week on the PGA TOUR, I find it’s best first to understand the consensus key stat profile. Then, take a stance on the elements of the tournament that may go overlooked. At the U.S. Open, Recent Form, performance in recent Majors, and Driving Distance are consensus key areas factored into each player’s price.

From a sleeper perspective, I will primarily focus on the importance of Comp Course History to differentiate my player pool and find value for this week’s tournament. While we haven’t seen Pinehurst since 2014, several examples of comp courses that require similar skillsets in similar conditions may be more indicative of success this week than simple recent form.

Below, find my favorite value PGA golf DFS picks and longshots for the 2024 U.S. Open. Stats pulled across Last 36 Rounds unless otherwise noted.

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U.S. Open Course Specs

For a deeper dive into the course, read my U.S. Open preview

Sahith Theegala ()

When I think of Sahith Theegala’s game, I see an escape artist who gets himself into some trouble with ball striking that can be erratic at times. But, one who is able to tap into a deep bag of short game shots that can bail him out of trouble from around the green. Interestingly enough, however, the stats tell the opposite story in 2024. Theegala’s raised his ball striking baseline tremendously this season, ranking top-25 in both SG: OTT and SG: APP in this field. In fact, he has gained strokes ball-striking in all but one of his last 25 starts.

Unfortunately, he’s failed to capitalize on this newfound ball-striking skillset, as his SG: ARG stats have been uncharacteristically poor, ranking outside the top 100. I don’t have a great explanation for what has caused such a precipitous drop for Theegala in an area that was once his best strength, but I do know a trip to Pinehurst’s turtle shell greens and tightly mown areas surrounding the greens are a great place to reset and let his creativity flourish.

Theegala has taken a liking to courses that require creativity around the greens, with top-10 finishes at THE PLAYERS, Arnold Palmer Invitational, WM Phoenix Open, the Sentry, the Masters, and the Genesis Invitational over the last two seasons. He’ll carry plenty of momentum into this week after an encouraging T12 showing at the Memorial in his last start.

Sam Burns ()

Sam Burns’ name does not immediately come to mind when I think of major contenders, as he’s finished no better than T20 over his first 15 tries. But as a five-time PGA TOUR winner and key contributor at the Presidents Cup and Ryder Cup over the last two years, I can’t help but feel he’s due for a breakout soon.

If Sam Burns were to suddenly break out for the first time at a major after 15 tries, wouldn’t it make sense that it came on the first U.S. Open to be played on Campion Bermuda greens? Pinehurst hasn’t changed much since the 2014 U.S. Open, however the most impactful alteration may have been its transition from Bentgrass to Bermuda-based greens.

When looking across Donald Ross’ other tournament venues like Sedgefield Country Club, East Lake, Detroit Golf Club, or Oak Hill, it is typically the most skilled putters who separate themselves from the field. It takes a keen eye and confident stroke to navigate his signature and complex greens. Burns is renowned as one of the best Bermuda putters in the world and enters in great form with three top-15 finishes over his first four starts since becoming a new dad.

Sungjae Im ()

Another elite putter who has a great track record on Donald Ross comp courses and has caught fire over the last month, Sungjae Im is showing all the signs you want to see from a player peaking at the right time. It was a forgettable start to 2024 for the South Korean after beginning with a T5 at the Sentry. But Im has since rebounded nicely with four T12-or-better finishes over his last five starts.

Form aside, Pinehurst seems perfectly suited to accentuate Im’s greatest strengths. While not the longest hitter on the TOUR, Im is a bonafide fairway finder who does his best work on positional venues that reward avoiding trouble. That skillset has helped him bank two early wins in his career at the Shriners Children’s Open and Honda Classic.

His lack of overpowering distance has hampered him at traditional U.S. Open and PGA Championship venues. However, his three career top-15 finishes at the Masters suggest he is equipped to handle the pressure of a major championship on venues that allow those with deft touch around tight, undulated greens to separate.

Alex Noren ()

If Alex Noren is ever going to win a major, it’s going to happen on a grinder’s course like Pinehurst No. 2 where greens in regulation are scarce, and Scrambling is the true premium. Noren can win a Scrambling contest, particularly one on Bermuda greens, as he ranks top 10 in the field in SG: ARG, SG: P (Bermuda), Scrambling, and Bogey Avoidance.

Like many of the other longshots in the field this week whose resumes lack a prior history of contending in majors, Noren’s premium skillsets in Driving Accuracy and short game should actually help separate him from the field. It’s rare for that to be the case in a major when Distance and Ball Striking are typically pre-requisites (See the latest PGA Championship leaderboard for evidence), but it sets Noren up well as an ideal Sleeper candidate.

Course fit aside, Noren is in the midst of one of the most consistent seasons on the PGA TOUR, piling up 11 top-25 finishes over his last 14 starts. He’s my favorite outright value beyond 100-1 odds and will be a fixture in my golf DFS picks this week as well.

Shop the best golf odds at sports betting sites for PGA TOUR sleepers and more highly-touted players before betting. Best of luck if you choose to bet on these U.S. Open golf DFS picks!

2024 U.S. OPEN ODDS: DFS PLAYER POOL

With all the course-fit profiles in mind, I’m leaning early toward the below player pool. Naturally, I’m looking their way in the 2024 U.S. Open odds as well. I’ve broken the list down by projected pricing/odds tier for DraftKings.  

Photo by Associated Press

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