Golf DFS Picks: 5 Potential Longshots and PGA TOUR Sleepers For 2024 Valspar Championship

The final leg of the Florida Swing brings us to Palm Harbor, Florida, for the 2024 Valspar Championship at Innisbrook Resort’s Copperhead Course. Last week’s Golf DFS picks and sleepers article identified Nick Taylor as a low-priced contender on DraftKings. We’ll look to keep the momentum going with our PGA TOUR golf sleepers and longshots for DFS lineups and betting cards. 

As always, take advantage of the latest Underdog promo codes, including a $100 deposit match for those interested in playing these golf DFS picks in Underdog drafts!

Golf DFS Picks: Favorites At The Valspar Championship

Below are the sportsbook odds and DraftKings DFS prices for the favorites at THE PLAYERS. Click to bet now.

COURSE INTRODUCTION

Standing at 7,340 yards, the Copperhead Course at Innisbrook Resort presents a unique test on the PGA TOUR schedule, as its presence of five par-3s makes the course play much longer than the scorecard yardage might suggest. To further that point, it features heavy rough and some of the most narrow fairways on TOUR. With many tight doglegs, players have found it best to club down off-the-tee, as keeping the ball in the fairway is the best way to generate scoring opportunities at this course. Top ball-strikers – particularly from beyond 175 yards – familiar with Bermuda greens are best suited to attack this course.

For a deeper dive into the course, read my Valspar Championship preview. Without any further delay, let’s get to our Valspar Championship picks, focusing on longshots and sleepers for your DFS lineups.

FINDING VALUE IN GOLF DFS PICKS: THE VALSPAR CHAMPIONSHIP

To identify “value” any given week on the PGA TOUR, I find it’s best first to understand the consensus key stat profile, then take a stance on the elements of the tournament that may go overlooked. At the Valspar Championship, Course History, SG: APP, and recent form on the Florida Swing are consensus key areas factored into each player’s price.

From a sleeper perspective, I will take a stance on the importance of long-iron approach play (Prox: 175+) and SG: Putting on courses with similar dormant, overseeded Bermuda as opportunities to buy low on players who may not otherwise fit consensus trends. I’m leaning on that stance to differentiate my player pool and find value for this week’s tournament.

Below, find my favorite golf DFS picks and longshots for the 2024 Valspar Championship. Stats were pulled across the last 36 rounds unless otherwise noted. Each player is listed with the best price in Valspar Championship odds.

Sam Ryder ( , $7,300)

A look down the list of contenders at The Valspar Championship shows a consistent trend of spike approach and putting. It’s no wonder why Ryder has become one of the most popularly bet longshots this week, as those are two areas he is elite in relative to this field. Over the last 50 rounds, Sam Ryder ranks No. 4 in SG: APP and No. 12 in SG: Putting on Bermuda greens.

It’s been more of the same since the Florida resident has returned home, turning in a pair of top-20 finishes in his first two starts on the Florida Swing. At the Valspar Championship, he’s seen a mixed bag of results. He turned a corner last year with a T19 showing. Ranking top-15 in Comp Course History and Prox: 175+, Ryder enters in great form to build off his 2023 result here.

Joel Dahmen ( , $6,800)

The top two players in terms of SG: Tee-To-Green at THE PLAYERS were hardly a surprise: Scottie Scheffler & Hideki Matsuyama. No. 3 however, was none other than Netflix sensation, Joel Dahmen. Known for his accurate ball striking, Dahmen has become a bit of a course specialist on positional venues that remove any advantage from longer hitters and reward those with the ability to play out of the fairway consistently. That was his secret to success in his T11 finish at THE PLAYERS last week. It’s a formula he’s successfully tapped into at the Valspar Championship as well. Over his first three appearances, he’s gained strokes ball striking and made it through the cut in each instance.

His putting – both in 2024 and historically at the Valspar Championship – does not leave much room for encouragement as far as a top-10 ceiling is concerned. But, overseeded Bermuda greens are where Dahmen’s putter has been least detrimental, as his two most recent instances of gaining on the greens came on the same putting surface at The AmEx and WM Phoenix Open.

Andrew Novak ( , $6,700)

Not all missed cuts are made the same. In Andrew Novak’s case at THE PLAYERS last week, I say that not to suggest that he played well and was a couple of unlucky breaks away from seeing the weekend. He’s not the caliber of player we should expect to finish in the top half of the best field the PGA TOUR offers. A week later, this seems like an ideal time to buy lower on a journeyman who is still in the midst of one of the best stretches of golf of his career.

Novak entered last week on a streak of three consecutive top-10 finishes across the WM Phoenix Open, Mexico Open, and Cognizant Classic. Throughout this hot stretch, he’s gained strokes across all four Strokes Gained categories, but most encouragingly, the irons have carried him. Entering this week, Novak ranks No. 4 in Prox: 175+, a crucial stat for the Copperhead course. It forces one of the highest concentrations of long-iron approaches on the PGA TOUR. A top-30 finisher at the 2023 Valspar Championship, it’s fair to expect a better result from Novak this year as he enters in improved form against lesser opposition from the field.

Matthew NeSmith ( , $6,500)

Once one of the most promising young ball-strikers on the PGA TOUR, NeSmith has unfortunately regressed into mediocrity over the last year. That is, however, until THE PLAYERS last week where he turned in a performance more in tune with what we used to expect from him. His T26 finish was his best result since the 2024 ZOZO Championship (a great Innisbrook comp). It was the first time since the 2023 PGA Championship that he gained across all four Strokes Gained categories. Could that be the sign of more form to come?

The Valspar Championship isn’t exactly the spot I’d expect NeSmith’s promising form to come to an abrupt halt. In two prior starts, he’s looked impressive with finishes of T21 and T3. NeSmith may be a bit of a risky consideration for those less reliant on course history, but a top-20 ball-striking performance at TPC Sawgrass last week encourages me to ride the hot hand at a comfort course.

KH Lee ( , $6,500)

I realize my first four “sleeper” picks in this article are four of the consensus top-owned DFS plays amongst the low-priced players on DraftKings this week. So from purely a game theory leverage pivot standpoint, KH Lee is my favorite contrarian play in this field. A boom-or-bust player in every sense of the word, Lee’s form has never been very predictive of how he will perform on a week-to-week basis. What we do know for sure about the two-time Byron Nelson champion, however, is that he has a particular list of courses that suit his eye. The Copperhead Course at Innisbrook Resort is one of them.

In two prior appearances at the Valspar Championship, Lee has finished T19 and T29. That may be a credit to his prowess in par-5 scoring, as birdie opportunities have proven hard to come by elsewhere at Innisbrook. Over the last 36 rounds, Lee ranks No. 10 in Par-5 Scoring. Already firing one top-5 finish in difficult conditions on the Florida Swing this month, I’m happy to chase the “boom” potential with Lee this week on DraftKings.

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VALSPAR CHAMPIONSHIP ODDS

Shop the odds at the best sports betting sites for PGA TOUR golf sleepers and more highly-touted players here, including for the top 10, top 20, etc.