Golf DFS Picks: 3 Potential Longshots & PGA TOUR Sleepers For The Sentry
The Fall Swing in the rearview can only mean one thing: We’re back to talking PGA TOUR longshot golf odds and have a new $100 bonus for those interested in playing these golf DFS picks with our Underdog Fantasy promo! Kicking off the 2024 festivities is The Sentry at The Plantation Course at Kapalua in Maui, Hawaii.
As always, this event features a decorated yet limited field of the top players from the prior season. However, this year, the field has expanded to 59 players who reached the 2023 BMW Championship, along with all PGA TOUR winners in 2023.
In soft and calm conditions, The Sentry has proven to be a birdie-maker’s paradise, offering little resistance with its massive fairways and oversized greens. With that said, given the limited field size, it has not historically been an event that’s rewarded longshots. With an expanded field and dry & windy conditions in 2024, it sets up for more volatility than we’ve seen in recent years.
Ahead, we’ll dive into the most viable longshot options to consider for The Sentry.
Plantation Course at Kapalua INTRODUCTION
Standing over 7,500 yards as a par-73, Kapalua represents one of the longest and largest properties on the PGA TOUR. As such, the skillset of driving accuracy is effectively a throwaway, as players will be faced with some of the widest fairways on the PGA TOUR.
Instead, Driving Distance, Par-5 Scoring, Bermuda Putting, and Scrambling are skill sets which have helped contenders separate from the pack. With its position on the Maui coastline, the elements play a significant role in how scoreable the course will play. Over the last two years, The Sentry has seceded the lowest scoring average on TOUR, with winning totals of -27 and -34, respectively. When winds are up, however, the course has proven capable of fighting back, as demonstrated in 2020 with a winning score of just -14. Judging by the current forecast, I would anticipate a winning score in the low-twenties under par.
For a deeper dive into the course, read my The Sentry preview. Let’s get to our 2024 The Sentry picks, with a focus on longshots and PGA TOUR golf sleepers for your DFS lineups.
Finding Value in Golf DFS Picks: The Sentry
To identify “value” any given week on the PGA TOUR, I find it’s best first to understand the consensus key stat profile, then take a stance on the elements of the tournament that may go overlooked. At The Sentry, Driving Distance, performance in easy scoring conditions, Par-5 Scoring, Course History, and recent form to close 2023 are consensus key areas factored into each player’s price.
From a sleeper perspective, I will take a stance on the importance of Course History over Recent Form, and Scrambling over scoring in pure birdie fests as two key areas to differentiate my player pool and find value for this week’s tournament.
Below, find my favorite golf DFS picks and longshots for the 2024 The Sentry. Stats pulled across Last 36 Rounds unless otherwise noted. Each player is listed with the best price in The Sentry odds.
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Harris English (, $7,300)
English’s ability to take down the Sentry Tournament of Champions in 2021 is factored into his price this week, but I would argue not as heavy as it should be. It’s a disorienting feeling to start your season in Hawaii the first week of the new year at an event most are playing without any regularity. Many players struggle to acclimate to the time difference, test out new equipment for their first competitive round of the year, or get distracted by the Mai Tais and luxurious accommodations. None of those factors are a concern to me when it comes to Harris English this week.
Generally speaking, English is a long yet inaccurate driver with volatile irons whose short game thrives on Bermuda greens. That’s a perfect recipe for Kapalua’s can’t-miss fairways and all-Bermuda layout. It took about half the 2023 season for English to recover from his hip surgery fully, but a top-10 finish two starts ago at the BMW Championship is enough encouragement for me to buy into another 2021-like performance.
Cam Davis (, $7,100)
Maybe it’s the familiar time zone or the breezy coastal winds, but whatever the reason, Australians have a very strong track record at The Sentry. Countrymen Cam Smith, Matt Jones, Adam Scott, and Jason Day have each posted top-6 finishes within their last three respective starts in this event, and Davis has already come close to furthering that trend with a T10 finish in his 2022 debut.
Like English, Davis is a long hitter best suited for courses that require him to lean on the driver early and often without fear of penalty for wayward shots. Recent form can be a bit negligible this time of year, but it seems his hot finish to 2023 is going overlooked based on these odds. Davis closed the year with seven top-12 finishes over his last nine starts. The sky is the limit for this 8-year-old if that form continues into 2024.
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Erik van Rooyen (, $6,300)
The last time we saw Erik van Rooyen on the PGA TOUR, he was lifting the trophy at the Worldwide Technology Championship. He closed the 2023 season, gaining 3+ strokes on approach in each of his last five events, helping him trend toward his second PGA TOUR win. High-level approach play will travel to any PGA TOUR course, so it’s surprising to see van Rooyen’s odds fall this far, considering the questionable form of those priced around him.
Like Davis and English, van Rooyen is at his best on courses with generous landing areas that do not penalize off-center drives. He may not have the win equity of the other elites in this field, but his current ball-striking form is well worth a top-10 or top-20 placement bet on this second-shit course.
Best of luck if you bet or play these golf DFS picks for The Sentry!
The Sentry ODDS
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