Golf DFS Picks: 4 Potential Longshots & PGA TOUR Sleepers For 2024 WM Phoenix Open

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Written By John Haslbauer | Last Updated
golf dfs picks

The greatest party in golf is here this week as we continue our handicapping of 2024 WM Phoenix Open odds, also known as Wasted Management and The People’s Open at TPC Scottsdale. With a new 100-1 outright winner emerging every week on TOUR, we’ll set out to find more diamonds in the rough again as we shift our golf DFS picks focus to Phoenix.

Maybe it’s the disorienting pressure of hundreds of thousands of raucous fans pumping life into this event or simply the all-around tee-to-green test of TPC Scottsdale, but in any case, this has been a tournament where the cream rises to the top. The list of past champions and regular contenders is littered with those who have steadily contended in Majors, THE PLAYERS, or Ryder Cup and Presidents Cup atmospheres. That setup is not especially conducive to betting longshots; however, there are still high-upside sleepers in this field worth consideration for placement bets and your DFS lineups.

Let’s get to our 2024 WM Phoenix Open longshots and sleepers for your DFS lineups and betting cards. Click on the odds anywhere below to bet now on the best available prices in your state. 

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COURSE INTRODUCTION

TPC Scottsdale is a course that rewards elite ball-striking first and foremost. With lateral natural desert hazards and water threatening throughout this course, players will need to be in complete control of their driver off the tee, while those with above-average driving distance have been able to set up more scoring opportunities with shorter clubs into this firm and fast greens.

As a 7,216-yard par-71, TPC Scottsdale is about average in terms of total yardage but plays shorter than the scorecard suggests in firm and dry conditions at elevation. Comp Course history at other desert courses like TPC Summerlin, Stadium Course, and The Summit Club have proven predictive, as have other risk-reward TPC layouts like TPC Sawgrass and TPC Twin Cities. Overall, I’m building my player pool this week around elite ball strikers who are reliable scramblers around the green with a proven history at this event or other comp courses.

For a deeper dive into the course, read my WM Phoenix Open preview. Without any further delay, let’s get to our WM Phoenix Open picks with a focus on longshots and sleepers for your DFS lineups.

FINDING VALUE IN GOLF DFS PICKS: WM Phoenix open oPEN

To identify “value” any given week on the PGA TOUR, I find it’s best first to understand the consensus key stat profile, then take a stance on the elements of the tournament that may go overlooked. At the WM Phoenix Open, Recent Form, SG: Ball Striking, and Course History are consensus key areas factored into each player’s price.

From a sleeper perspective, I will take a stance on the importance of SG: T2G in comp course conditions and prioritize heavier weight on Course History in lieu of recent form as key areas to differentiate my player pool and find value for this week’s tournament.

Below, find my favorite golf DFS picks and longshots for the 2024 WM Phoenix Open. Stats were pulled across the last 36 rounds unless otherwise noted. Each player is listed with the best price in WM Phoenix Open odds.

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Tom Hoge (, $7,300)

Forever in my good graces since taking down the 2022 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am, Hoge has also long been a staple longshot bet for me at THE PLAYERS Championship each year. That, by proxy, makes the TPC Sawgrass course record holder a sensible fit any time we return to TPC Scottsdale. Hoge has a pair of top-25 finishes over his last four WM Phoenix Open starts and has gained strokes on the field in SG: APP in each of his last six appearances. He’s also proven to love these greens, gaining 2+ strokes putting in four out of six trips to Phoenix.

It’s taken Hoge some time to return to the “Is this guy actually the best iron player in the world?” form, but he’s just about there now, ranking No. 2 behind Scottie Scheffler in terms of SG: APP. Hot off a T6 at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am, this still feels like a buy-low price on a proven player trending into a comfort course.

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Nick Taylor (, $7,200)

Nick Taylor laughed in the face of sticky course history trends at the 2023 WM Phoenix Open, going toe-to-toe with Scottie Scheffler in an eventual runner-up showing despite a career-best finish of T49 over six prior starts at TPC Scottsdale.

If you believe in the power of symmetry, Taylor looks on his way to repeating his 2023 season, as he’s finished T7 at the Sony Open and MC at The AmEx to start both seasons. His top-10 at the Sony Open was encouraging for a player with odds this long, as it was his fourth instance gaining 4+ strokes on approach since winning the RBC Canadian Open. TPC Scottsdale has proven kind to players with spike approach upside, and Taylor has developed into a far more consistent putter since the year has passed. After handling the pressure of winning his national open last summer, I have no concerns over this three-time PGA TOUR winner’s ability to handle the heightened crowd atmosphere at TPC Scottsdale.

Nate Lashley (, $6,900)

It’s safe to say the hometown narrative secret on Kevin Yu is out of the bag at this point, as his odds have plummeted nearly in half since the beginning of the week. So, for fantasy game theory purposes, why not pivot to a cheaper and less-owned play in Lashley that boasts similar recent form, a proven track record at TPC Scottsdale, and the same added benefits of hometown familiarity?

A Scottsdale resident, Lashley came out the gates hot in his WM Phoenix debut, where he finished T3 in 2020. He is one of just 10 players in the field this week to rank in the top 25 in both Recent Form (L16 rounds) and Course History. Lashley has shown a high ceiling in each department, as he has posted two top-10s over his last five starts and two top-20s in four prior trips to TPC Scottsdale. A bit of a boom-or-bust player, I love Lashley’s upside as a longshot outright and GPP fantasy play coming off of a T3 at the Farmers Insurance Open in his last start.

Sam Ryder (, $6,900)

Sam Ryder’s name is etched in history at TPC Scottsdale after becoming just the 10th player to achieve an ace at the signature 16th hole. He’s looked far more comfortable navigating this course since that fateful day, as he’s finished top-25 in each of his last two appearances.

The 34-year-old continues to develop into a more well-rounded player on TOUR, coming off a career-best 2023 campaign regarding SG: APP and SG: Putting. He also showcased a new level of consistency in 2023, posting 10 top-10 finishes. His previous high was four top-20s in 2021. With Ryder, I see a transformed ball striker who thrives on courses that reward control off-the-tee, consistent approach play, and spike putting upside. TPC Scottsdale is a great fit for those skill sets with its many neighboring hazards in play, so I’ll be looking to get exposure in both the placement and outright betting markets at long odds.

Best of luck if you bet or play this golf DFS picks for the WM Phoenix Open!

2024 WM Phoenix Open ODDS

Shop the odds at the best sports betting sites for PGA TOUR golf sleepers and more highly-touted players here, including for the top 10, top 20, etc.

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