Golf DFS Picks: 4 Potential Longshots & PGA TOUR Sleepers For The 2024 American Express
The PGA TOUR rolls on to Coachella Valley for the first event of 2024 inside the continental United States. Many in this field of 156 will make their season debut at The American Express, bringing appealing longshot golf odds, and the latest PrizePicks bonus and Underdog promo codes are a $100 deposit match for those interested in playing these golf DFS picks! PGA West’s three-course rotation of the Stadium Course, La Quinta CC, and Nicklaus Tournament Course are set to host The AmEx and its pro-am format this Thursday.
The American Express has proven to be the birdie fest of all birdie fests, as weather conditions rarely intervene inside Coachella Valley. The presence of 156 golfers requires a much more forgiving course set up by way of negligible rough and accessible pins. As such, this has proven to be one of the most viable tournaments for sleepers and longshots to contend, with a hot putter often all that is required to separate from the pack.
Ahead, we’ll dive into the most viable longshot options to consider for the 2024 American Express.
PGA West INTRODUCTION
With all three courses in rotation measuring under 7,200 yards with four par-5s apiece, PGA West is open for all types of players to contend. The Stadium Course, played in two of the four rounds this week, emphasizes control off the tee with its many water hazards threatening tee shots throughout.
Elite iron play and the ability to catch a hot putter have been two simple yet consistent requirements to contend in this event historically. Fortunately for bettors, there are plenty of options throughout the betting board that can check those two boxes.
For a deeper dive into the course and my Underdog draft rankings, read my American Express preview. The Three-Putt Thursday contest for Round 1 is now open. The entry fee is $5, with $3,000 to the winner; six-person drafts with six rounds and a 30-second clock to pick.
Let’s get to our 2024 American Express picks, focusing on longshots and PGA TOUR golf sleepers for your DFS lineups.
FINDING VALUE IN GOLF DFS PICKS: The American Express
To identify “value” any given week on the PGA TOUR, I find it’s best first to understand the consensus key stat profile, then take a stance on the elements of the tournament that may go overlooked. At The American Express, scoring stats (Birdies & Opportunities Gained), SG: TOT (Easy Scoring Conditions), SG: Approach, and SG: Putting are consensus key areas factored into each player’s price.
From a sleeper perspective, I will take a stance on the importance of Good Drives Gained, Comp Course History on similar desert-style courses, and elite spike-putting upside as key areas to differentiate my player pool and find value for this week’s tournament.
Below, find my favorite golf DFS picks and longshots for the 2024 American Express. Stats were pulled across the last 36 rounds unless otherwise noted. Each player is listed with the best price in The American Express odds.
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Justin Suh (, $7,400)
The California kid should have the home crowd on his side over the next month as we kick off the West Coast swing in Palm Springs. As he kicks off his third full season, Suh has already established himself as one of the best putters on TOUR, ranking top-5 over the last 50 rounds. Knowing how little resistance PGA West has to offer from tee to green, elite putting upside is a skillset worth paying a premium for in this expected birdie-fest.
His consistent putting has helped mask some mediocre ball-striking numbers. However, he’s recently found consistency with the driver, gaining strokes off-the-tee in each of his last seven starts. That is very encouraging for a higher ceiling in 2024, and especially so at The Stadium course, which requires consistent driving to avoid its many water hazards. With a pair of top-10s over his last four starts, Suh continues to trend closer toward picking up his first career PGA TOUR win after a much-hyped amateur career.
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Sam Ryder (, $7,200)
A second-shot birdie-fest where top-tier approach and putting are rewarded is a setup tailor-made for Sam Ryder’s game. 2023 may have ended too soon for Ryder, as he closed the year with nine consecutive made cuts, including four top-15 finishes over that span.
Over the same stretch, Ryder consistently gained strokes on the field in approach in all nine events, ranking top-5 in both SG: APP and Birdies or Better Gained. And while not known for his driving, Ryder has improved to top 20 in Good Drives Gained, an encouraging sign to avoid the persistent water hazards in play on the Stadium Course. No. 10 in my model this week, Ryder stands out as one of the best values on the betting board at The American Express.
Lee Hodges (, $7,100)
I did not know who Lee Hodges was before the 2022 American Express, but as this event so often does, it sets the stage for a newcomer like Hodges to burst onto the scene in benign conditions. Hodges finished T3 in his debut here and then went on to prove he was here to stay on the PGA TOUR with a decisive win at the 3M Open. From an Off-The-Tee standpoint, TPC Twin Cities and its persistent water hazards emulate a similar skillset needed to avoid trouble at The Stadium Course this week. So, Hodges’ two best career finishes coming on these two courses seem to be correlated.
A consistent ball-striker on a stretch of six straight made cuts since his 3M Open victory, Hodges will need a positive Putting performance to win, but remains a viable top-20 consideration even if he putts to his baseline.
Greyson Sigg (, $7,000)
Narrative Street says to keep riding golfers named Greyson while they’re hot following Murray’s Sony Open victory. Sigg’s stat profile offers plenty of reason to take that narrative and run with it. Top-25 overall in my model this week, Sigg doesn’t jump off the page in any area in particular but is above-average in all the areas that matter most at The AmEx.
Ranking top 30 in terms of SG: APP, Good Drives Gained, Comp Course History, Par-3 Scoring, and P4: 350-400, Sigg is one of just seven players in the field to rank above-average across each of these top-correlated categories at The American Express. A top-10 finisher at the RSM Classic – one of the best comp courses for what PGA West requires – Sigg is an intriguing placement and DFS consideration as he looks to improve on his top-25 finish in his 2022 AmEx debut.
Best of luck if you bet or play this golf DFS picks for The American Express!
2024 American Express ODDS
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