the Memorial Tournament Golf DFS Picks: Underdog Cheat Sheet, 3 Potential Sleepers
The PGA TOUR’s best have congregated together for yet another Signature Event, as this week’s festivities bring us to Muirfield Village for the 2024 Memorial Tournament. Last week’s PGA TOUR golf DFS picks article identified a top-3 finisher for the second consecutive week after Tom Kim’s late Sunday surge at Hamilton Golf & Country Club. We’ll look to keep that momentum going into this week.
Jack Nicklaus’ renowned Muirfield Village Golf Club has famously produced eclectic leaderboards that have crowned everyone from Jon Rahm to William McGirt over the last decade. It is a stern test from tee to green that may reward a winner at single digitals under par. That calls for premiums on Scrambling, Bogey Avoidance, and performance on comp courses that feature similar length (7,500+ yards), thick rough, and firm and fast Bentgrass greens.
We’ll look to dig for some diamonds in the rough in this article ahead of the 2024 Memorial Tournament.
UNDERDOG GOLF FANTASY DRAFT CHEAT SHEET
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Memorial Tournament Underdog Fantasy Draft Tiers
Underdog snake drafts include the Memorial Tournament contests that strip away the complexity of traditional DFS lineup-making. John’s golf picks may provide valuable sleepers for your Underdog golf drafts.
Tier 1
Scottie Scheffler
Xander Schauffele
Patrick Cantlay
Tier 2
Viktor Hovland
Collin Morikawa
Max Homa
Justin Thomas
Tier 3
Si Woo Kim
Hideki Matsuyama
Will Zalatoris
Cameron Young
Tony Finau
Tier 4
Byeong Hun An
Tom Hoge
Keegan Bradley
Tier 5
Davis Thompson
Jake Knapp
Denny McCarthy
To identify “value” any given week on the PGA TOUR, I find it’s best first to understand the consensus key stat profile. Then, take a stance on the elements of the tournament that may go overlooked. At the Memorial Tournament, Recent Form, SG: APP, and Event History are consensus key areas factored into each player’s price.
From a golf DFS picks perspective, I will take a stance primarily on the importance of Comp Course History and Approach Proximity from over 175 yards. These two areas, in particular, have proven to show a sticky trend of repeat contenders, so I’ll look to whittle down my player pool to those with multiple high finishes at Muirfield Village in the past and who have demonstrated a strong fit on comp Jack Nicklaus designs earlier this season.
Below, find my favorite value PGA golf Fantasy picks and longshots for the 2024 Memorial Tournament. Stats pulled across Last 36 Rounds unless otherwise noted.
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The Memorial Tournament Course Specs
For a deeper dive into the course, read my Memorial Tournament preview.
Matt Fitzpatrick
Last week I took a stance on Tom Kim as a “sleeper” play at the RBC Canadian Open despite opening at moderate betting odds, under the premise that he would still fly under the radar from an Underdog Fantasy draft perspective. This week, Matt Fitzpatrick fits the bill in a very similar way, as I expect him to go overlooked in favor of other more trendy names around him like Max Homa, Shane Lowry, and Tony Finau.
Fitzpatrick has been boom or bust at Muirfield Village historically, with two top-10s and two MCs over his last four appearances. Despite that volatility, he has managed to consistently gain strokes off-the-tee, on approach, and around the green in all but one of his six prior appearances. It was the putter that did him in most recently at Valhalla, where he continued to demonstrate top tee-to-green form. A continued stay on Bentgrass greens, however, should lend itself well to a bounce back from Fitzpatrick, who ranks No. 2 in SG: Putting on Bentgrass greens over the last 36 rounds.
It’s never a bad idea to back Matt Fitzpatrick in grinder continues, and with the irons now trending, he has what it takes to play into contention at a venue that may very well reward a single-digit under-par winner.
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Jason Day
I wrote quite a bit about Collin Morikawa’s “hidden” course history at Muirfield Village in my Tournament Preview, but Jason Day’s relationship with Muirfield Village runs even deeper. The Aussie has gone very far out of his way to plant his roots in Dublin, Ohio, making this a bona fide home game for the Muirfield Village member. Despite the home turf advantage, Day has struggled to cash in at the Memorial, with just one top-10 finish over 14 career starts.
In Day’s defense, he has struggled with injuries and, in turn, overall form leading into this event in recent years, so expectations have been kept relatively in check. He was also forced to withdraw before the 2021 Memorial Tournament due to the birth of his child during tournament week.
This year, the outlook for Day is brighter, as he’s already piled up four top-10 finishes over his first 13 starts of the year, including a T4 two starts ago at the Wells Fargo Championship, which also rewards long iron play and scrambling in difficult conditions. On a streak of five consecutive made cuts, Day is trending well towards another top-20 placement bud at this comfortable course setup.
Thomas Detry
It’s been a true “heroes or zeroes” season on the PGA TOUR, as each week seems to reward either the prohibitive favorites or a severe underdog winner. With Davis Riley and Robert MacIntyre picking up their first career PGA TOUR (solo) victories over the last two weeks, I won’t dismiss Thomas Detry’s chances at the Memorial simply because he’s never won on TOUR before. After all, this is the same event that’s crowned unheralded winners like William McGirt, Kyle Stanley, and Jason Dufner over the last decade.
In Detry’s case, he’s a bomber with a streaky putter, which plays nicely on Muirfield Village’s layout. He’s done everything but win so far this season on the PGA TOUR, with four top-10 finishes, including three over his last six starts. It’s the T4 Detry posted at the PGA Championship that really caught my attention, as Valhalla has drawn so many parallels to Muirfield Village. Detry will look to improve on a solid T48 showing in his Memorial Tournament debut last year, in which he ranked top-10 for the week in SG: APP.
Shop the best odds at sports betting sites for PGA TOUR sleepers and more highly-touted players before betting, including for top 10, top 20, etc. Best of luck if you choose to bet on these golf DFS picks!
GOLF DFS PLAYER POOL
With all the course-fit profiles in mind, I’m leaning early toward the below player pool for golf DFS picks this week. Naturally, I’m looking their way in the 2024 Memorial Tournament odds as well. I’ve broken the list down by projected pricing/odds tier for DraftKings.
Memorial Tournament Odds Comparison Table
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