Golf DFS Picks: 4 Potential Longshots & PGA Tour Sleepers For American Express

West Coast golf continues on the PGA Tour as we head east to Coachella Valley for the 2025 American Express, a bona fide haven for birdie-makers regardless of preceding form. The pro-am event hosts 156 players and offers appealing value for longshot golf odds. The latest Underdog promo code provides a $100 bonus for those interested in playing these golf DFS picks! With its three-course rotation of the Stadium Course, La Quinta CC, and Nicklaus Tournament Course, PGA West hosts the 2025 American Express this Thursday.

Birdie fests are the most volatile to handicap on the PGA Tour. Limited resistance from the tee to the green often makes putting the deciding factor to separate come Sunday. That creates a perfect environment for longshot bets, as Nick Dunlap and Hudson Swafford recently displayed, winning with over 200-1 pre-tournament odds.

We’ll dive into the most viable longshot options and golf DFS picks for the 2025 American Express.

The American Express odds

If you want to add sportsbook bets to your golf DFS picks this week, compare the odds below. Shop the best odds at sports betting sites and sports betting apps for PGA Tour sleepers and more highly touted players using the pulldown menu in the top left. Best of luck if you choose to bet on these golf DFS picks! Click to bet now.

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2025 American Express Underdog Fantasy Draft Rankings

Underdog snake drafts include American Express contests that strip away the complexity of traditional DFS lineup-making. John’s golf picks may provide valuable sleepers for your Underdog golf drafts. These rankings and picks can also be applied to DraftKings and FanDuel golf DFS.

Tier 1

Sungjae Im
Patrick Cantlay
Tony Finau

Tier 2

Brian Harman
Will Zalatoris
Sam Burns
Wyndham Clark
Si Woo Kim

Tier 3

Tom Hoge
Davis Thompson
Ben Griffin
Harry Hall
Patrick Fishburn
Eric Cole

Tier 4

Andrew Putnam
Christiaan Bezuidenhout
J.J. Spaun
Adam Hadwin

Tier 5

Henrik Norlander
Bud Cauley
Michael Thorbjornsen
Michael Kim
Joe Highsmith
Mac Meissner

finding value in the American Express field

To identify “value” any given week on the PGA Tour, I find it’s best to first understand the consensus key stat profile and then take a stance on the elements of the tournament that may go overlooked. At the American Express, SG, approach, scoring in easy conditions, and course history are consensus key areas factored into each player’s price.

From a sleeper perspective, I will emphasize the importance of course history over recent form and elite ball-striking on comp second-shot courses as two key areas to differentiate my player pool and find value for this week’s tournament.

Below, find my favorite golf DFS picks and longshots for the 2025 American Express. Stats are from the last 36 rounds unless otherwise noted. Each player is listed with the best price in American Express odds.

American Express Course Specs

For a deeper dive into the course, read my American Express preview.

Adam Hadwin

A Canadian in an uncharacteristic downswing returning to a course he’s had nothing but success at year after year. Where have we seen that before? Nick Taylor’s Zurich Classic counterpart sets up nicely to follow in his footsteps this week.

Though still looking for his first career win at the American Express, Hadwin has put himself in contention here early and often. He joined the exclusive company in 2017, carding a 59 on a moving day and ultimately falling one stroke shy of Hudson Swafford. He’s kept the pedal down at this event ever since, with five top-six finishes over nine career appearances.

The No. 1 player in this field in terms of total strokes gained at the American Express, this should serve as the perfect bounce-back spot for Hadwin.

Harris English

Last week, my favorite longshot beyond 100-1 odds was Lucas Glover, who found himself in the mix entering Sunday before a respectable T21 finish. This week, I love Harris English for many of the same reasons. To start, English already looks the part of a two-time American Express winner. Often mistaken as Hudson Swafford’s body double, the two boast similar profiles as long hitters with spike-putting upside in easier scoring conditions.

I continue to view Harris English as one of the most underrated players on the PGA Tour, with six top-20 finishes in majors since 2020. English closed out the fall swing in great form with three top-15 finishes over his last five starts. With just one missed cut at this event over eight prior appearances, English’s combination of recent form and course fit makes him one of my favorite values on the board this week.

Henrik Norlander

Norlander will look to become the second Augusta State University alumni to win the American Express as he tries to follow in the footsteps of his former teammate, Patrick Reed. Norlander has shown surprising flashes on easy scoring venues of late, posting five top-15 finishes over his last 13 starts.

He rates very well for his price in my model this week, ranking No. 18 overall. That’s a credit to his recent form (No. 4 SG: T2G L36) and approach prowess (No. 6 SG: APP). Norlander has shown his upside at PGA West before, finishing T12 in 2021. In improved form this year, Norlander makes for one of my favorite DFS and top-20 placement values.

Francesco Molinari

The American Express is the time and place to scroll to the very bottom of the odds board and find yourself a bona fide dark horse to hitch your wagon to. After all, last year’s winner, Nick Dunlap, wasn’t even posted on all sportsbooks ahead of his historic win as an amateur.

So if an unlisted amateur making his second career PGA Tour start can win this event, what’s stopping this 2019 major champion? Molinari enters this week in forgettable form. However, the preceding form has not held him back from contending here in the past. He’s placed in the top 10 in his last two appearances at the American Express, with four top-12 finishes over six career starts here. He may not be in vintage 2019 form anymore, but with two starts removed from a T17 at the Bermuda Championship, there’s enough left in the tank to take a chance on this longshot.

Best of luck if you bet or play these golf DFS picks for the 2025 American Express!

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