Golf DFS Picks: 4 Potential Longshots & PGA TOUR Sleepers For The 2024 Arnold Palmer Invitational

, , ,
Written By John Haslbauer | Last Updated
golf dfs picks

The PGA TOUR remains stationed in the Sunshine State, as the Florida Swing continues on to Bay Hill Resort & Lodge for the 2024 Arnold Palmer Invitational. In last week’s golf DFS picks article, we successfully identified Sam Ryder as a longshot contender, and we’ll look to keep that momentum going in search of more diamonds in the rough for your golf betting

The Arnold Palmer Invitational gave us one of the most surprising longshot winners of the 2023 season, Kurt Kitayama, who defeated a star-studded group of chasers to close out this designated event on Sunday. While there have been a few surprises here and there at this event, Bay Hill is a venue that rewards long-hitters with the most well-rounded skill sets. That may not exactly be conducive to landing on a longshot outright, but there’s still value to find when analyzing course profile fits throughout the field.  

As always, identifying the right sleepers is crucial for fantasy in weeks like these. So take advantage of the latest Underdog promo code, a $100 deposit match for those interested in playing these golf DFS picks!

Let’s get to our 2024 Arnold Palmer Invitational longshots and sleepers for your DFS lineups and betting cards. Click on the odds anywhere below to bet now on the best available prices in your state. 


Standing just under 7,500 yards, Bay Hill presents challenges similar to those we come to expect in a major championship venue. It features long par 3s and par 4s, thick and penal rough, and extremely firm and fast greens. That makes Scrambling and Bogey Avoidance of premium importance. The list of top performers at the Arnold Palmer Invitational reads like a list of major champions and annual major contenders. So, it’s a week in which players will need to enter in polished tee-to-green form in order to contend.

For a deeper dive into the course, read my Arnold Palmer Invitational preview. Without any further delay, let’s get to our Arnold Palmer Invitational picks, with a focus on longshots and sleepers for your DFS lineups.


To identify “value” any given week on the PGA TOUR, I find it’s best first to understand the consensus key stat profile, then take a stance on the elements of the tournament that may go overlooked. At the Arnold Palmer Invitational, Course History, Recent Form, and scoring in difficult conditions are consensus key areas factored into each player’s price.

From a sleeper perspective, I will take a stance on the importance of Proximity from 200+ yards and SG: Short Game on Fast Bermuda greens as opportunities to buy low on players who may have sputtered on the west coast swing. I’m leaning on that stance to differentiate my player pool and find value for this week’s tournament.

Below, find my favorite golf DFS picks and longshots for the 2024 Arnold Palmer Invitational. Stats were pulled across the last 36 rounds unless otherwise noted. Each player is listed with the best price in Arnold Palmer Invitational odds.

TheLines is partnering with Underdog Fantasy this season. Create a new account on the Underdog Fantasy app and sign up with promo code THELINES to get up to a $100 deposit match on your first deposit. Underdog snake drafts include PGA TOUR contests that strip away the complexity of traditional DFS lineup-making. John’s golf picks may provide valuable sleepers for your Underdog golf drafts.

Adam Scott (, $7,500)

I had to do a double-take and re-run these numbers, but it is in fact true: Adam Scott has finished top-20 in each of his last seven international starts. Could I name a single instance where Scott was in contention to win any of those events? No. In fact, I can’t recall a single time since he blew the Wyndham Championship playoff in 2021 that Adam Scott had an opportunity to win a tournament. Be that as it may, the man is consistent about lingering around the top half of leaderboards, and that’s all we can really ask for from a fantasy perspective.

At age 43, Scott continues to profile well for courses like Bay Hill, which reward long hitters with control of their driver and long irons. He ranks top-20 in Driving Distance, SG: OTT, SG: APP, and Comp Course History, demonstrating a great all-around fit for the course. He’s loved stopping in Orlando amid the Florida Swing throughout his career, as this will be his 12th career start at Bay Hill. Twice a top-3 finisher over that span, Scott is an ideal profile fit in great recent form and a discounted price this week.  

Keegan Bradley (, $7,400)

The Boston Common Golf spokesman claims many regions of the U.S. as his home turf, and the Florida Swing is no exception. Taking up full-time residence in Jupiter, Florida, Keegan has gone on record in the past, saying he loves playing close to home this time of year so he can enjoy more quality time with family on and off the course. The results back that up, too, as Keegan has been tremendously consistent at the Arnold Palmer Invitational to date. He carries a streak of 11 consecutive made cuts here, including five top-11 finishes over that span.

Even through his worst putting stretches, Keegan has been able to crack the code of these firm and fast Bermuda greens. In 2024, Bradley has dramatically improved his putting baseline, with the exception of a couple outlier Poa performances on the California Swing. Last we saw Keegan on Bermuda, he contended with a T2 showing at the Sony Open. Ranking top-10 in Prox: 200+, Par-5 Scoring, and Driving Distance, Keegan has returned to his dominant ball-striking levels with a newfound ceiling on Bermuda greens.

  • Join TheLines free golf betting Discord channel with more than 4,300 community members discussing sports betting 24-7-365.

Min Woo Lee (, $6,600)

I normally choose to only write about three longshots in limited field events, so I’ll spare the over-analysis for this bonus one. From a DFS pricing standpoint, this will probably be the most egregious error of the season on DraftKings. 

A late qualifier by way of his runner-up finish at the Cognizant Classic last week, Bay Hill is an ideal fit for Min Woo’s elite distance and proven track record contending on long and difficult courses. His ownership will be comically high despite missing the cut here in each of his first two tries, but it’s worth acknowledging that he’s priced almost $2,000 too low on Draft Kings, as his consensus outright odds are shorter than Hideki Matsuyama’s ($8,400).

Sepp Straka (, $6,400)

Course History has not been on the Austrian’s side at Bay Hill, missing the cut in each of his first four tries here. But, in a week where the top 50 and all other players within 10 strokes of the lead through Friday make the cut, his chances of breaking that streak have never been better. The Georgia Bulldog has a great history on comparable Bermuda courses, as he has climbed up the leaderboard at East Lake in each of the last two years, and three additional top-5 finishes since 2022 between TPC Southwind and PGA National.

That’s enough of a sample size to prove to me that Straka’s game is suitable for a course like Bay Hill, which rewards a combination of distance and precise ball striking to avoid persistent water hazards and crafty short game around Bermuda greens. So, I believe this could be an ideal buy-low spot on Straka. He’ll look to improve on a season-best T12 finish at The Sentry at yet another long, driver-heavy, wind-exposed Bermuda layout this week. 

Best of luck if you bet or play this golf DFS picks for the 2024 Arnold Palmer Invitational!


Shop the odds at the best sports betting sites for PGA TOUR golf sleepers and more highly-touted players here, including for the top 10, top 20, etc.