4 Golf DFS Sleeper Picks: 2024 John Deere Classic Cheat Sheet For Underdog Fantasy

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Written By John Haslbauer | Last Updated
golf dfs

It’s another birdie-fest week for golf DFS on the PGA TOUR, as we head to the Quad Cities for the 2024 John Deere Classic at TPC Deere Run. Although birdie-fests have traditionally been the best opportunity to fire away at PGA TOUR golf sleepers with longer odds, the lack of field depth at the John Deere Classic has historically led to fewer surprises. Just two players over the last 10 years have gone on to win at golf odds longer than 100-1.

Generous fairways and greens have paved the way for winning scores to eclipse -20 year over year at this event, but players will need to show solid leading form in both their ball striking and short game in order to separate from the field here, making TPC Deere Run a slightly more imposing test than your typical putting contest.

Ahead, we’ll dive into the most viable longshot options to consider for the 2024 John Deere Classic.

UNDERDOG GOLF FANTASY DRAFT CHEAT SHEET

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John Deere Classic Underdog Fantasy Draft Tiers

Underdog snake drafts include John Deere Classic contests that strip away the complexity of traditional DFS lineup-making. John’s golf picks may provide valuable sleepers for your Underdog golf drafts.

Tier 1

Sungjae Im

Tier 2

Sepp Straka
Maverick McNealy
Ben Griffin
Keith Mitchell
Denny McCarthy
Aaron Rai

Tier 3

Adam Svensson
Adam Schenk
Doug Ghim
Mark Hubbard
Lee Hodges
Davis Thompson

Tier 4

Nate Lashley
Carson Young
Seamus Power
Patton Kizzire

Tier 5

Kelly Kraft
Jacob Bridgeman
Ryan Moore
Harry Higgs

To identify “value” any given week on the PGA TOUR, I find it’s best first to understand the consensus key stat profile. Then, take a stance on the elements of the tournament that may go overlooked. At the John Deere Classic, Recent Form, Birdies or Better Gained, and Course History are consensus key areas factored into each player’s price. Like the Rocket Mortgage Classic last week, this event offers an appealing buy-low opportunity for more inconsistent players who have proven most capable of contending on easier layouts where streaky putting is the key to separation.

Below, find my favorite value PGA golf Fantasy picks and longshots for the 2024 John Deere Classic. Stats pulled across Last 36 Rounds unless otherwise noted.

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John Deere Classic Course Specs

For a deeper dive into the course, read my John Deere Classic preview

Patton Kizzire

After a brutal start to his 2024 season that included seven consecutive missed cuts over his first three months, Kizzire has abruptly turned a corner. Since then, he’s carried a stretch of five top-30 finishes over his last six starts into this week, including a T20 finish at the highly correlated Rocket Mortgage Classic.

The 38-year-old has leaned on his streaking irons and putting throughout his journeyman career, and that’s been the secret to this sudden return to form yet again. Over this stretch, Kizzire ranks top-10 in SG: APP, Prox: 75-150, Comp Course History, and Birdies or Better Gained. With four top-30 finishes over five career John Deere Classic starts, Kizzire makes for an appealing placement bet, given his combination of recent form and course history.

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Troy Merritt

Like Kizzire, Merritt has also been through a valley of sorts over the last year, but his game is clicking in all the right areas now, leading up to the John Deere Classic. He’s made it through the cut in four of his last five starts, highlighted by a T9 at the CJ Cup Byron Nelson and T17 at the Rocket Mortgage Classic over that stretch. At his best, Merritt is a fairway-finder who can spike with his irons and putting, and he’s returned to that vintage form of late, ranking top-25 in Birdies or Better Gained, SG: Putting, and Recent Form (L16 rounds).

A native of Osage, Iowa, Merritt has always made a point to stop in the Quad Cities even if better results have not yet materialized. He’s set to make his 11th start at the John Deere Classic this week and should enter with newfound confidence after a career-best T17 showing here last year.

Pierceson Coody

At an event which has already proven to be a launching pad for bourgeoning stars like Jordan Spieth and Bryson DeChambeau, Coody fits the mold to follow suit. The standout junior golfer quickly turned heads on the Korn Ferry Tour, picking up three wins from 2022-2023.

Now in the midst of his first full PGA TOUR season, Coody seems to be getting more comfortable as each week goes by, as he carries a streak of four consecutive made cuts into the John Deere Classic. That stretch includes a T5 finish at the Charles Schwab Challenge where he was in the penultimate pairing on Sunday.

Putting is the strength of Coody’s game, having gained on the greens in 14 of his 16 starts this season. With TPC Deere Run leveling the playing field from tee-to-green, Pierceson Coody sets up to be a great leverage option at expectedly low ownership across fantasy formats.

Kelly Kraft

A 36-round sample size goes back a pretty long way for Kraft, who’s made just six starts on the PGA TOUR this season, so take your stat models with a grain of salt. However, when Kraft has teed it up in 2024, he’s proven capable of hanging around the top of the leaderboard on short and easy setups. Kraft has a pair of top-15 finishes this season between the Zurich Classic and CJ Cup Byron Nelson, and seven top-30s dating back to the FedEx Fall swing.

Over that sample size, Kraft ranks top-10 in SG: APP, Prox: 75-150, and Birdies or Better Gained. While not the most dependable player in the field, Kraft is fully capable of spiking with his irons and putting on a forgiving track like TPC Deere Run to justify a flyer at these long odds.

Shop the best odds at sports betting sites for PGA TOUR sleepers and more highly-touted players before betting, including for top 10, top 20, etc. Best of luck if you choose to bet on these golf DFS picks!

GOLF DFS PLAYER POOL

With all the course-fit profiles in mind, I’m leaning early toward the below player pool for golf DFS picks this week. Naturally, I’m looking their way in the 2024 John Deere Classic odds as well. I’ve broken the list down by projected pricing/odds tier for DraftKings.

JOHN DEERE Classic Odds Comparison Table

If you’re looking to add some sportsbook bets to your golf DFS picks this week, compare odds below. Click to bet now.

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