John Haslbauer’s Golf Betting Year In Review, Advice For New Bettors

Written By John Haslbauer on December 31, 2022
golf betting

2022 has finally come to a close. It’s time to look back at the year that was, tally up the points, and see how our PGA TOUR golf betting fared for the year.

As I look back on this year of golf bets, it’s been the rollercoaster of emotions you’d come to expect in a year of golf betting, with climactic wins and heartbreaking collapses. On this, my 365th day with TheLines, it truly is hard to believe a full year has passed by already. Through it all, I’m thankful for all the new friends I’ve made along the way, all the dialogue on Twitter, DMs, and Discord, the podcasts invitations, and the support of all my new colleagues on TheLines’ staff. To celebrate our wins together has been an absolute thrill, and to commiserate the losses together has been, well, cathartic!

To Win A Major In 2023

Game
(Eastern Time)
(EST)
B. Koepka
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+1100
B. DeChambeau
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+1200
C. Smith
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+350
C. Morikawa
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+700
D. Johnson
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+600
J. Rahm
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+300
J. Spieth
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+600
J. Thomas
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+350
P. Cantlay
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+700
R. McIlroy
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+200
S. Burns
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+1100
S. Scheffler
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+350
T. Woods
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+3500
T. Kim
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+500
T. Fleetwood
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+1000
T. Finau
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+800
W. Zalatoris
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+400
X. Schauffele
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+600

Golf Betting Strategy

Despite all the highs and lows of this year, the weekly unit structure for each card remained the same for Outrights (3U in to pay out 24U each), First Round Leader (0.5U in to pay out 10U each), and Props (3U in to pay out 3U each).

While it seemed we were bound for a losing year entering the Fall Swing, three late outright wins in the last two closing months preserved a profitable season across Outrights, FRLs, and Props for a total profit of 93U. Below, we’ll recap the year that was with some closing thoughts heading into 2023.

Outrights (6x, +28u)

  • AT&T Pro-Am: Tom Hoge (+6600)
  • Genesis Invitational: Joaquin Niemann (+7000)
  • John Deere Classic : JT Poston (+8000)
  • Shriners Open: Tom Kim (+2500)
  • WWT Championship at Mayakoba: Russell Henley (+6000)
  • Houston Open: Tony Finau (+2500)

FRLs (5x, +29u)

  • Arnold Palmer Invitational: Rory McIlroy (+2600)
  • THE PLAYERS: Tom Hoge (+10000, Chopped)
  • The Masters: Sungjae Im (+7000)
  • AT&T Byron Nelson: Sebastian Munoz (+8500)
  • The Open: Cameron Young (+9000)

Props (+36u)

  • 144 Prop bets placed over 41 events
  • 48 Props won (33% Hit Rate)
  • +24% ROI

Closing Thoughts

Patience, and a commitment to weekly unit structure is a boring takeaway, but for new, prospective bettors who want to get into golf betting in 2023, it is the most prescient advice I can give. Golf bettors are in the business of backing players at 40-1 odds to win with conviction, and with that comes the ebbs and flows of hot streaks and long draughts month-to-month. This year, I hit one outright between February and October. But despite all the bad breaks in-between, I did not press, stuck to the same weekly structure, and rebounded with three outrights over the last two months to pass the breakeven point. From an outright perspective, I felt snake bitten for most of the year, so it’s a relief to close the year in the green, with optimism that more 50/50 Sundays will fall our way in 2023.

What Could Have Been

You can’t win ’em all in the world of golf betting, but a look back at all the near misses is always a good measure of the overall research process and what could have been. By my count, there were 10 additional events this year where the Outright Card was well-positioned to add to the yearly total in the final round of the tournament. I did not hedge any of these, but if you followed along and did, your year probably looked even better than mine!

Of the 10 near misses, it’s the three Sunday back-9 collapses that sting the most. Those include Russell Henley at the Sony Open, Ben Griffin at the Bermuda Championship, and of course Mito Pereira at the PGA Championship (no further comment).

There were another seven unconverted Sunday final pairings between Justin Thomas at the Valspar Championship, Sam Burns & Billy Horschel at the Zurich Classic, Keegan Bradley at the Wells Fargo Championship, Will Zalatoris at the U.S. Open, Patrick Cantlay at the Travelers Championship, Cameron Young and Taylor Pendrith at the Rocket Mortgage Classic, and Xander Schauffele at the BMW Championship. There’s a lot that needs to go your way to win a golf tournament, so in the grand scheme of things, having a legitimate sweat in about 40% of PGA events this year is a pretty decent consolation prize.

That’s a wrap for 2022! Thank you again for all the support along the way, and best of luck with all your bets in the new year. Next up, the 2023 Sentry Tournament of Champions Preview!

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John Haslbauer Avatar
Written by
John Haslbauer

John Haslbauer writes about golf betting and advanced golf metrics for TheLines.com. He is a passionate golf fan, golf writer, and (casual) golfer. A graduate at Syracuse University, John works out of Jersey City as a Director of Media Strategy for HBO and HBO Max. He created the website thepgatout.com at the start of 2021 and is active on Twitter (@PGATout). No, he is not a tout. The Twitter handle is a joke. Touts are lame. We hate touts.

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